
Claims and planned layoffs

Labor
costs and productivity

The state of the economy is ………So, he have a spike in initial unemployment claims, though continuing claims, which are actually from a week earlier, fell.
Planned layoffs remain low, though they are up a bit, and productivity rose
slightly, but wages did not keep up with inflation.
Meanwhile, I get serious 2008 vibes from the fall in factory construction jobs as well as the
increasing exodus of realtors from the profession.
The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits increased
more than expected last week, touching their highest level in four months,
but the underlying trend remained consistent with a stable labor
market.
Economists shrugged off the rise in weekly jobless claims reported by the
Labor Department on Thursday as volatility related to last Monday's
Memorial Day holiday. Claims tend to rise around public holidays. They
said there were no signs yet the Middle East conflict was having a
noticeable impact on the labor market, though uncertainty was
growing.
………
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 13,000 to a
seasonally adjusted 225,000 for the week ended May 30, the highest level
since the first week of February. Economists polled by Reuters had
forecast 213,000 claims for the latest week. The four-week moving average
of claims, which irons out week-to-week volatility, increased only 6,500
to 214,750.
………
Layoffs remain low by historical standards, despite high-profile job cuts
by technology firms related to the adoption of artificial intelligence.
U.S.-based employers announced 97,006 job cuts in May, about 39% of them
in the technology sector, a separate report from global outplacement firm
Challenger, Gray and Christmas showed on Thursday. That was up 16% from
April.
………
Still, planned job cuts rose only 3% compared to the same
period last year. Though employers have not responded with mass layoffs to
rising shortages and inflation stemming from the
U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, now in its fourth month, economists said that could change, the longer
the conflict drags on.
The Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor
Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, on Tuesday showed hiring decreased and
layoffs fell in April, suggesting the increase in
payrolls
that month was due to lower layoffs. A stable labor market allows the
Federal Reserve to focus on inflation. Financial markets expect the U.S.
central bank to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate in the
3.50%-3.75% range into 2027.
U.S. stocks opened lower. The
dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields
fell.
A third report from the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor
Statistics showed worker productivity growth slowed faster than initially
thought in the first quarter, but the underlying trend remained strong
and a boost is expected from businesses adopting artificial intelligence
for many roles.
Nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output
per worker, increased at a downwardly revised 0.3% annualized rate last
quarter. That was the slowest since the first quarter of 2025.
Productivity was previously estimated to have risen at a 0.8% pace last
quarter. Economists had expected productivity growth would be revised
down to a 0.5% pace.
As to factory construction:
Yesterday, the Commerce Department released
data
on construction in April. It showed that factory construction is continuing
to fall. In nominal terms, it dropped another 1.2 percent in April from its
March level. Adjusting for inflation, the decline would be roughly 1.3
percent.
Factory construction has been on a downward path since
the third quarter of 2024. It is now down by close to 27 percent from its
recent peak.
As to realtors:
The slowest housing market in decades
is stretching into its fourth year, and even real-estate agents who made it this far are reaching a
breaking point. Most of them are independent contractors and get paid when
a deal closes. With fewer sales to go around and homes taking longer to
sell, more agents are ditching the industry or finding second jobs.
………
The downturn is also hitting mortgage-loan officers and the many other
industries reliant on home sales, from appraisers and photographers to
appliance manufacturers.
………
The National Association of Realtors had 1.4 million members as of April,
down from a peak of 1.6 million in October 2022.
This seems to me to be a Wile E. Coyote moment economy.