First, let me say that I have no f%$#ing clue as to what is going on in the US economy.
What I do know is that yesterday, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee hiked its benchmark rate by 25 basis points (¼%) for the first time since 2023.
How's that Iran War going, Donnie?
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates Wednesday for the first time in three years, a sharp reversal that began taking back cuts it made last year and implicitly undercut the White House’s insistence that inflation isn’t a concern.
The increase, approved unanimously, will raise the benchmark federal-funds rate range by a quarter point to between 3.75% and 4%. The vast majority of officials penciled in one more hike this year in interest-rate projections released after their meeting.
Chairman Kevin Warsh vowed shortly after taking office in May to end an overshoot of the Fed’s 2% target now in its sixth year and followed through with an increase that had been widely anticipated in recent days.
“Today’s action starts to show that we’re serious about this,” Warsh said at a news conference. The Fed’s policy statement said its action would support a “timelier” return to the inflation goal.
The rate hike scrambled an account the White House had offered of the man tapped by President Trump for the job in January. Trump and his allies had cast pressure to raise rates as coming from a committee hostile to Warsh, who last year said he would have cut rates sooner than the Fed ultimately did.
Meanwhile, in related economic news, (I'm sure that the FOMC knew this yesterday) we had initial unemployment claims falling by 10,000 to 196,000 and continuing claims falling by 39,000 to 1.730 million.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, though the decline was likely exaggerated by the Labor Day holiday, with the underlying trend pointing to continued labor market stability.
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"The exceptionally depressed number last week might reflect seasonal adjustment issues related to Labor Day, but the underlying picture remains encouraging," said Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "For now, then, the Fed will remain laser-focused on inflation."
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 196,000 for the week ended September 12, the lowest level since mid-July, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 208,000 claims for the latest week.
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Nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 jobs in August after job growth slowed sharply in the prior three months. The claims report showed the number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, dropped 39,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.730 million during the week ended September 5, the lowest level since January 2024.
I expect to see home sales falling sharply with the interest rate hike, and as to commercial real estate, I think that it going to get even uglier.
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Rising inflation is boosting mortgage rates, putting pressure on the housing market.
A separate report from the Commerce Department's Census Bureau on Thursday showed permits for the future construction of single-family homes dropped 1.8% in August to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 878,000 units. Building permits increased 1.3% on a year-over-year basis.
The decline over the month in permits followed on the heels of news on Wednesday of a slump in single-family homebuilder sentiment to a one-year low in September.
The National Association of Home Builders blamed the deterioration in morale on rising mortgage rates as well as worsening labor shortages because of an immigration crackdown and higher prices for materials amid import tariffs.
The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has jumped nearly 100 basis points since the Middle East war started. It averaged 6.95% in the latest week, the highest level since January 2025, data from mortgage finance firm Freddie Mac showed.
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Multi-family homebuilding plunged 22.5% to a rate of 344,000 units in August. Multi-family housing starts decreased 15.5% on a year-over-year basis. Overall housing starts fell 2.6% to a pace of 1.275 million units. They decreased 1.2% on a year-over-year basis in August. Residential investment has contracted in five of the last six quarters.
It's going to be interesting to see how the sagging real estate market shakes out in the next few months, particularly in Florida, where real-estate fraud is about ⅔ of the economy.