Initial Claims
Falling productivityAnd this time, I am a part of the initial unemployment claim statistics.
Needless to say, I'm pessimistic, though it should be noted that the fact that I just lost my job, which is not something that inspires confidence.
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week, consistent with steadily easing labor market conditions, though opportunities for those out of work are becoming scarce amid tepid hiring.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 219,000 for the week ended February 1, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 213,000 claims for the latest week.
"There is nothing to worry about here," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.
Unadjusted claims increased 11,370 to 239,690, with applications in New York soaring by 4,092. Filings rose by 3,999 in California, likely reflecting some residual effects from the recent fires in Los Angeles. Claims dropped by 1,343 in New Jersey. There were no significant increases or decreases for the rest of the states, territories and the District of Columbia………
Low layoffs are underpinning the labor market, though work opportunities are becoming more scarce for those who are unemployed. The government reported on Tuesday that there were 1.1 job openings for every unemployed person in December, down from 1.15 in November.
The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 36,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.886 million during the week ending January 25, the claims report showed.………
Though business sentiment perked up in the aftermath of Trump's victory in November, hiring plans have remained lackluster amid expectations that demand will slow this year because of still-restrictive monetary policy and higher prices from tariffs.
A report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas on Thursday showed U.S. employers announced plans to hire 6,089 workers in January, down 24% from December. Plans were up 13% from January 2024, which was the lowest reading for the month of January on record.
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Nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a 1.2% annualized rate in the fourth quarter after growing at an upwardly revised 2.3% pace in the July-September quarter.
Economists had forecast productivity would advance at a 1.4% rate after increasing at a previously reported 2.2% pace in the third quarter. Productivity increased at a 1.6% rate from a year ago. It grew 2.3% in 2024, accelerating from 1.6% in 2023.Productivity has expanded at a 1.8% rate since the fourth quarter of 2019, higher than the 1.5% pace in the prior business cycle that ran from the fourth quarter of 2007 through the fourth quarter of 2019. It is, however, below the long-term rate of 2.1%.
So, hiring is down, (bad for me) and productivity growth is slowing (bad for me).
I am NOT happy right now.