A Deceptive Bookie? Hoocoodanode?

It has been discovered that Polymarket paid influencers to create videos of fake winnings as a part of their marketing campaign.

The technical term for this is, "Fraud," and in the less enlightened past, people were sent to prison over this.

Polymarket has been banned from letting U.S. users trade on its website since 2022. But the company is waging a secret campaign for Americans’ attention on social media, paying creators to film trades on fake websites and hiring overseas workers to make the videos go viral in the U.S., a Wall Street Journal investigation found.

The campaign bolstered the perception that Polymarket lets users make fast and easy money, as the company attempts to bring its offshore website back to the U.S.

………

We reviewed more than 1,100 videos made by 10 of Polymarket’s more than 100 creators. In 70% of the videos, creators appeared to place a bet on websites that looked nearly identical to Polymarket, but were actually dummy sites the company used to film fake trades. Many of the creators didn’t disclose they were paid by Polymarket until we reached out.

Around 10% of the videos went even further, adding outdated footage or fake headlines to imply they won their bets. Those videos depicted the creators winning almost $900,000. We traced how each bet would have actually been resolved and found that in reality, the creators—and anyone who had placed identical bets—would actually have lost more than $166,000.

………

Polymarket gave its creators bulletpointed scripts and reviewed videos before publishing, people who have worked with the company said. If a video was obviously faked, the creator would be asked to remake it.

Fraud and insider trading are not prediction markets. 

I Wonder Who the Patient Was

A new drug, Retatrutide is awaiting regulatory approval. and is purported to have weight loss effects similar to those of bariatric surgery.

It has now been revealed an unnamed 79 year old with obesity, obstyructive sleep apnea, and pulmonary hypertension was given the drug as a part of the FDA’s “compassionate use” program. (Alternate link)

Gee, a 79 year old fat f%$#er with political connections necessary to get the drug before approval?

I wonder who it could be.

Clearly, it is not Donald Trump, as they have denied this, and we know that this administration never lies.

Millions of Americans with obesity are eagerly awaiting a powerful new drug from Eli Lilly called retatrutide, which has demonstrated bariatric-surgery levels of weight loss. Some aren’t even waiting for approval from the Food and Drug Administration, instead racing to acquire it through sketchy means. 

But STAT has learned that Eli Lilly and the FDA have allowed one person to gain access to the drug through the FDA’s “compassionate use” program, a pathway that gives patients with serious and immediately life-threatening medical issues access to experimental treatments. 

This person was a 79-year-old man at the time the request was made in April, accordig to three sources familiar with the matter. Those sources, who requested anonymity due to fear of reprisals, said it drew the interest of top health officials, suggesting the person receiving this drug was well connected.

………

STAT does not know who the patient is. But given the patient demographics and the unusual nature of the application, STAT asked the White House multiple times whether the patient was President Trump, who turned 80 a week ago, is overweight, and has expressed interest in obesity drugs. 

White House spokesperson Kush Desai directed STAT’s inquiry to the Health and Human Services Department. In response to STAT’s question about whether Trump has obstructive sleep apnea and pulmonary hypertension, Desai said a White House memo detailing Trump’s most recent medical evaluation “covers this.” The memo makes no mention of obstructive sleep apnea or pulmonary hypertension.

Mandy Rice-Davies applies, "Well, they would say that, wouldn't they?"

H/T Atrios 

We Are Unbelievably Screwed

🚨 Update: Niño 3.4 has continued its upward climb — now 29.37°C on June 18.

That is an extraordinary mid-June reading, with 2026 continuing to run above the entire historical pack in the NOAA OISST record.

El Niño is natural. But this is El Niño developing in a warmer ocean… pic.twitter.com/QJnfHJgpZJ

— The Global Warmer🔥 (@TheGlobalWarmer) June 19, 2026

If you can't see it in the image, the source is NOAA, and it looks like we are about to see an El Niño and resultant climate upset that approaches the level of the Great Drought that led to the collapse Anasazi society in the 1100s.

The Continuing Adventures of the Criminal Enterprise Formerly Known as Facebook™

I had already noted that Meta is attempting to address rock-bottom morale among its employees with improved snacks, and now it appears that the company is suspending its workplace surveillance of its employees.

This is not due to an outbreak of morality among senior management, but rather because they screwed up and inadvertently released their extensive tracking to the wild.

Facebook careless with employee data?  The next thing that you tell me is that Facebook is careless with user data. 

Meta is pausing a divisive employee tracking program after an internal security issue exposed potentially sensitive data collected through the initiative to other workers.

“We have carefully designed this program with privacy safeguards and while we have no indication at this time that any data was improperly accessed by Meta employees, we're pausing it while we investigate,” says company spokesperson Tracy Clayton.

Meta rolled out the Model Compatibility Initiative (MCI) tool in April to US employees. The tool “collects computer inputs such as mouse movements, click locations and keystrokes, as well as screen content,” according to workers who have been petitioning against it over privacy, security, and personal liberty concerns. When MCI launched, employees couldn’t opt out, but that changed to a limited degree after workers protested.

………

On Monday, a Meta engineer issued an internal security notice stating that databases filled with information gathered by MCI had been exposed to anyone inside the company.

A former employee actively involved in pushing back against MCI describes the lapse as “a mess” —and one that employees had expected would occur. “When workers raised concerns, leadership doubled down and failed to acknowledge the risks workers raised about the safety and privacy of worker and customer data,” the person says. “Leadership has clearly created an authoritarian environment where workers are no longer respected or heard.”

If Mark Zuckerberg were to be killed in a plane crash, I expect spontaneous celebrations in most of the offices of Meta.

Look! A (Shadow) Bank Run!

That's a bank run When redemption requests from a private credit fund exceed 15% in a quarter, that's a bank run.

Apollo, and I would assume Cliffwater, and probably HPS and Blackstone are experiencing a run on their assets. (See graph)

To the degree that anyone is saying that it is not a bank run, particularly since Apollo is restricting redemptions, they are lying.

Investor redemption requests at Apollo’s flagship retail private credit fund surged to 17 per cent of the vehicle’s value in the second quarter, underscoring fears of falling returns and rising stress in debt markets.

The firm’s $15bn Apollo Debt Solutions fund pitched to wealthy individual investors reported roughly $2.4bn of withdrawal requests in the most recent period. The fund met less than 30 per cent of the withdrawals it faced in the quarter, capping redemptions at 5 per cent of the value of the vehicle.

The Apollo fund, which has an investment portfolio worth nearly $26bn, had been hit with withdrawal requests of 11 per cent in the first quarter.

The rising withdrawal requests at the fund signal that the broader investor exodus from private credit has not abated, even as public markets have rallied and a sell-off in loans to private equity-backed software companies has moderated.

The funds have been a significant fundraising source for private investment groups, offering lucrative fees for the asset managers. However, private credit has faced scrutiny over its lending to the software industry, given the risks companies face from advances in AI.

Investors have sought to pull nearly $15bn from nine major funds tracked by the FT in the second quarter. The funds, which manage roughly $200bn across their investment portfolios, have met less than 40 per cent of the withdrawal requests.

………

The Apollo fund, like most of the vehicles operated by its competitors, is relying on a gating mechanism that allows the investment manager to restrict redemptions when they eclipse a 5 per cent threshold.

I'm waiting for lawsuits from the investors in these funds, sooner rather than later.

This sounds a lot like 2008, or 1929. 

Keir Starmer Achieved All of His Goals as PM

Outlasted by a head of lettuce His goals were to drive the left and labor out of the Labour Party, and then tack ferociously to the right in order to appeal to right wing British thugs.

Unfortunately, it turns out that neither traditional Labour voters nor Farage's Brown Shirt minions found him appealing.

Truth be told, I don't think that anyone found Starmer appealing. 

Britain is to get its fifth prime minister in four years after the current incumbent of Downing Street, Keir Starmer, announced that he would resign.

It was widely expected and came after months of mounting pressure on Starmer, who led the Labour party to a landslide victory in the 2024 UK general election but who has faced months of pressure to quit from members of parliament (MPs) for the centre-left party.

The announcement sets the scene for him to be replaced within weeks by Andy Burnham, who was a minister in the 2007-2010 government of Gordon Brown and, from 2017 until last week, the mayor of Greater Manchester.

Burnham is seen by many in Labour as the party’s best hope of defeating the challenge posed by the populist-right Reform party, led by Nigel Farage.

Nigel Farage is not a problem for Labour, chasing Nigel Farage to the right is a problem for Labour.

If Labour's response to the current situation in the UK is continuing prosecutions of peaceful protesters and inflicting gratuitous pain on immigrants and the transgender while ignoring the plight of the average Briton, Farage will win.

 

First He Fucked Ayn Rand, and Then He Fucked the Country.

Alan Greenspan has died at the age of 100.

Here's hoping that he's being fed shit sandwiches in Hell right next to Henry Kissinger. 

Linkage

• Commodore’s newest gadget is a flip phone that blocks social media and browsers (Ars Technica) The first compelling product from Commodore in decades.
• Humans Were Using Fire Long Before Scientists Thought Possible, Study Says (Gizmodo) About a million years ago, by Homo erectus.
• Cracking stories, Gromit: Wallace’s long-suffering canine companion to tell all in memoir (The Guardian) Finally an autobiography worth reading.
• Campaigner threatened with prosecution by Environment Agency after waterway cleanup (The Guardian) In the UK, of course.
• Companies That Embraced AI Are Now Rotting Away in a Very Specific Way (Futurism) AI slop is destroying institutional knowledge, and institutional knowledge is essential to reviewing AI slop.

Cats is cats:

Funny, Innit?

Yes, an anecdote is not data, but this story about how learning in a high school improved after it returned to pencil and paper sounds like it might mean something.

Would you believe it: a teacher and her students say their reading ability soared after banning tech in the classroom.

Maureen Mulvaney, an AP Literature and English teacher at Washburn High School in Minneapolis, started the low tech experiment last year after becoming frustrated with plagiarism, distracted students, and plunging literacy rates.

And so, with the enthusiastic support of parents, she banned phones and laptops, requiring all coursework to be done with pencil and paper. The turnaround was quick and resounding, and despite some initial resistance from students, they quickly fell in love with the old, analog ways of doing things.

In September, before the experiment started, just 46 percent of Mulvaney’s students said they felt confident about their reading ability. By February, that share shot up to 95 percent.

“We’re having a lot of trouble in education and I think what my kids told us was that there is a solution and the solution is to go low-tech. Go back to the old ways of doing things,” Mulvaney told local TV news station KARE 11. “Remove all the distractions and we can get our kids back.”

To be fair, if I had to write everything long hand, it would probably kill me. (I do use pen and paper for note taking though)

I have been using a keyboard, starting with a powder blue Smith Corona typewriter, when I was 15, but it does seem to me that many of the computer aids in current education seem to be a cure worse than the disease.

Vaccines Work

In the UK, the widespread rollout of the HPV vaccine has cervical cancer deaths for young women falling to 0.

Imagine that.

The HPV vaccine, which protects against the Human Papillomavirus responsible for most cervical cancer cases, has been linked to a dramatic decline in cervical cancer deaths among young women in England, according to a new study published in The Lancet.

Researchers from Queen Mary University of London found that no cervical cancer deaths were recorded among women aged 20-24 years in England between 2020 and 2024, marking the first time such record in a five-year period. The study estimated that around 23 deaths would have been expected in this age group if the vaccination would not have been introduced.

The Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine protects against several cancer-causing strains of the virus, particularly those responsible for cervical cancer. It works by prompting the body's immune system to produce antibodies that can neutralise the virus before infection occurs. Health authorities generally recommend routine vaccination for children aged 11 or 12, although it can be administered from the age of nine.

The study revealed that early vaccination at age 12 or 13 virtually eliminates the risk of cervical cancer deaths before age 30. Prior to the introduction of the vaccination programme in England in 2008, around 20 cervical cancer deaths were recorded annually among women under 30.

Get your vaccines. 

Not Gonna Happen

Still, it is heartening that the Senate Armed Services Committee has Added a provision to the national defense authorization act that would require Pentagon pre-approval before engaging in stock buybacks or paying dividends.

Even if this were to make it into the final bill, the Pentagon would never enforce it.

Just look at the fate of the march in rights in the Bayh-Dole Act of 1980.  The have never been used.

Still it is nice that the problem has been identified. 

The Senate Armed Services Committee approved a must-pass bill with a provision that could bar some defense contractors from executing stock buybacks or paying dividends unless they have Defense Department approval.

The measure, an annual bill known as the National Defense Authorization Act, was approved 18-9 in a closed-door committee meeting last week. The stock buyback provision’s inclusion in the committee’s bill greatly increases its chances of becoming law and sets up a potential sea change in how the Pentagon interacts with some of the country’s largest businesses.

.........

The provision in the bill, Section 815, specifically would prohibit the Pentagon from entering into contracts with contractors unless the contractor agrees in writing not to “purchase an equity security of such entity, or any parent entity of such entity, that is listed on a national securities exchange” or “pay dividends or make any other capital distribution with respect to the equity securities of the entity.”

The provision would take effect June 15, 2027. The defense secretary could agree to waive the limitation if the contractor provides a “qualifying defense investment plan.”

That F%$#ing Paper

Did the New York times just BOTH SIDES Ken Paxton's sweetheart deal for a child sex predator. Yes, yes it did. pic.twitter.com/wIylCgg5kP

— scary lawyerguy (@scarylawyerguy) June 19, 2026

Since part of the subhed was cropped out by Ecch (Twoitter), let me give you the full bit, "The case, which resulted in a short jail sentence despite years of alleged abuse, has drawn outcry in Texas. So have the attempts to politicize it." 

Yeah, the problem with Ken Paxton cutting a corrupt deal with a child molester is people criticizing the corruption.

What the f%$# is wrong with these people?   

It's TACO Friday

Following push-back from the climate community and Congress, the Trump has backpedaled on its plan to remove Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI) sensors.

This would have left the United States blind to climate change events.

Thankfully, Trump Always Chickens Out (TACO). 

The Donald Trump administration has reversed its decision to dismantle a $368m deep-sea observation system following an outcry from lawmakers and ocean experts.

On Thursday, the National Science Foundation announced that it would halt plans to dismantle the Ocean Observatories Initiative, stating: “effective immediately, [it] will not proceed with further removal or descoping of equipment from the remaining arrays and will continue operations including planned maintenance”.

The agency added that it “appreciates the concerns raised by the range of stakeholders that have informed us they rely on data” from the OOI.

The NSF also said it would “issue a Dear Colleague Letter to collect input from stakeholders and convene an expert panel to assess observational needs, evaluate available data sources, consider responses … and help the agency identify a sustainable path for NSF’s ocean observing systems”.

The OOI comprises more than 900 instruments that collect data on ocean health, including current patterns, climate variability and marine biodiversity. Its observation arrays are located off the coasts of North Carolina, Oregon, Washington and Alaska, as well as in the Irminger Sea, a marginal sea between Greenland and Iceland.

They hoped to pass this through with no one noticing, because their response to anthropogenic climate change is to cover it up.

The foal was to  

And The Tolls Are Coming Back

In news that would surprise no one, Iran has announced that they will be restarting transit fees Strait of Hormuz after 60 days.

Gee, color me completely unsurprised.

Iran has announced plans to introduce a system of maritime fees in the strait of Hormuz in two months, after the 60-day period of negotiation that has been triggered by the signing of the memorandum of understanding.

Tehran, claiming a historic victory over the US, said the strait was under its control and a European plan for a naval mission to escort ships though the strait would not be welcome. The US on Thursday lifted its blockade of Iran, and oil tankers began freely moving through the critical channel.

………

The talks, which are the first direct meeting between the two sides since they met in Islamabad on 12 April, will be focused on how to implement the 14-clause memorandum, including how to lift sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and ensure that commercial traffic starts to flow freely through the strait of Hormuz.

In a blow to those hoping the strait of Hormuz would be restored to full and permanent freedom of navigation, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator, said the strait needed to be managed, which would come at a cost. 

Trump is a loser.

Lame Ass Business Management

As a result of mass layoffs and widespread forced AI grinding, the morale of the employees the criminal enterprise formerly known as Facebook™ is falling off of a cliff.

It appears that Meta's answer to this problem is to improve the snacks at work.

As Anna Russel would say, "I'm not making this up, you know."

After axing thousands of jobs and monitoring employees as they train the AI that could ultimately replace them, it’s perhaps unsurprising that morale at Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta is at a low ebb.

It was confirmed this week in a leaked meeting to Business Insider in which Chief Technical Officer Andrew “Boz” Bosworth said that morale is “probably one of the worst it’s ever been.”

………

So far in 2026, Meta staff have had plenty to grumble about. The company laid off 8,000 jobs in April and began tracking workers’ computer activity. The monitoring is so that the company can train its AI models, raising the awkward issue that staff could be helping the very tech that could wind up replacing them.

Aside from the layoffs and 1984-esque surveillance, Meta has assigned roughly 10% of its workforce to train its AI models full-time, which is largely mind-numbing data-labeling. The Applied AI engineering unit comprises roughly 6,500 engineers and product managers. Workers liken it to being “drafted” — one even went so far as to describe it as a “gulag.”

………

But Meta’s leadership, recognizing the company’s sagging esprit de corps, is taking steps to improve morale. For starters, the snack budget is being increased, along with the travel and events fund.

I wish that I had the guillotine concession at Meta.  I'd be as rich as Mark Zuckerberg.  

History Rhyming

So, in addition to seeing localized housing price declines, we now see housing starts falling to a 6 year low.

It smells like 2008. 

May housing starts fell to the lowest level since the pandemic disrupted construction six years ago, the U.S. Census Bureau announced Tuesday. Builder confidence has dropped recently because of higher material and financing costs.

The change threatens to exacerbate housing shortages and disrupt recent progress in most states toward building enough new housing for new residents.

Starts were down to an annual rate of 1.17 million, the lowest since April 2020, and an 8.5% drop since May 2025. The drop since last year was especially severe in the South, down 15%, and the West, down 11%, but the Northeast saw a 19% increase and the Midwest increased 6%.

These numbers vary from region to region, but it's more like they are taking turns.

It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

We have the new weekly unemployment numbers out, and initial claims are down marginally, continuing claims are up marginally, and tepid hiring.

For me, the most important part of the unemployment statistics is that I am no longer a part of them.  I finished my first full week at my new job. (it's a 9/80 schedule, and tomorrow is the off Friday)

The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, but remained at slightly higher levels, suggesting some moderation in the pace of job growth in June.

 Economists largely shrugged off the report from the Labor Department ​on Thursday, with some pointing out that the recent elevation in claims was likely due to seasonal distortions related to the end of the school year. They viewed the labor market ‌as remaining stable enough for the Federal Reserve to focus on stamping out inflation, stoked by the Iran war.

The U.S. central bank on Wednesday kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range, but updated quarterly projections showed policymakers expected to raise borrowing costs this year amid growing concerns about inflation.

………

Initial claims ​for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 226,000 for the week ended June 13, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast ⁠225,000 claims for the latest week. Claims had increased for three straight weeks, pushing to the upper end of their 190,000-230,000 range for this year.

………

Though the survey's measure of factory jobs swung to positive territory this month, "most firms continued to report no changes in employment overall." The lack of hiring was evident in the weekly claims report. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, ⁠a proxy for ​hiring, increased 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.81 million during the week ended June 6, the claims report showed. 

Damned if I know what the f%$# is going on here.

Master Builder, Huh?

So not only is Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool having a major algae bloom, but the beautiful blue lining that Trump demanded is flaking off.

Trump claimed that the coating would last for 100 years. It did not make it to 100 days.

This is a metaphor for something.

President Donald Trump’s overhaul of the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool has taken another turn for the worse.

Trump, 80, had spent months bragging about repainting the massive pool on the National Mall a specifically chosen shade of “American flag blue.” But less than 24 hours after his vanity project was completed at a cost of more than $14 million, the pool turned green with algae.

Now, a fresh issue has surfaced: Trump’s “American flag blue” finish is flaking off and floating to the surface. 

………

Trump had intended for the coating to change the pool’s longtime gray hue to a swimming-pool-like blue, while also acting as a sealant for the structure, which leaks millions of gallons of water a year.

“This was highly sophisticated material, industrial strength, that could last for 100 years, applied by very talented people, many of whom came from the Great State of Oklahoma, where I won 77 out of 77 Counties, THREE TIMES, the only President to ever do so,” he wrote in a Truth Social post earlier this month. “The material is thick, strong, flexible, and has a natural, beautiful color, the dark blue of the American Flag!”

Donnie, go flake yourself.

Fun With Gila Monster Venom

After my two latest doctor visited showed high A1C, I was prescribed Ozempic.

I've lost a bit of weight over the past 5 weeks, high single digit, but I think that a lot of that is just a reduction in stomach contents.

I haven't so much noticed a reduction in appetite as I have noticed an increase in satiety.  I get full faster, and I stay full longer. 

Some interesting factoids at this point, first. there are preliminary indications that  GLP-1 drugs may prevent certain cancers , and second, Canada just licensed generic GLP-1 drugs.

In any case, I am definitely eating less. 

Using Shakespeare to Demonstrate Quantum Superposition

This is both simultaneously a cat and a ham.

Could a physicist please tell me when the wave function collapses here?  

Speaking of the Predictions of Nostra-Dumbass, a Deal Got Signed with Iran

I got it wrong when I said that there was no deal on the table as well.  There will be a signing a deal in Switzerland. (Apparently Trump signed the deal at Versailles, doubtless while eating cake.)

You gotta hand it to the Islamic Republic of Iran.  It took the Vietnamese 14 years to defeat us, it took the Afghans about 20 years, and it took the Iraqis about 6 years.

It took the Iranians about 16 weeks to kick our ass, as demonstrated by this 14 paragraph memorandum. 

A quick summary of the deal.

1. The end of hostilities, including in Lebanon, and this applies to Israel as well.
2.  Mutual respect of Iranian and US sovereignty.
3. A 60 day deadline this deal unless both sides agree to extend it.
4. The US will end its blockade and remove some troops in 30 days and Iran.
5. Iran will charge no transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz for the next 60 days.
6. Iran gets $300,000,000,000.00 in aid to rebuild. (Maybe not from the US)
7. The US will waive all sanctions immediately and rescind all sanctions as quickly as is practical including those by the UN Security Council and the IAEA.
8. Iran will not develop nuclear weapons.
9. An agreement to remain at the pre-hostilities status quo. 
10. The US agrees not to create or renew any sanctions.
11. The US agrees to release frozen and seized Iranian assets.
12. There will be some sort of arrangement to enforce the final deal.
13. Final status negotiations when paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 are all being implemented. 
14. This agreement shall be formally approved by the UN Security Council.

So, the US withdraws troops from the area, ends the blockade, releases Iranian assets, ends sanctions, arranges for Iran to get three hundred billion dollars, and leans on Israel to end its attacks on Lebanon.

In return, the Iranians agree not to develop nuclear weapons (which they have always said was the case) and not to charge transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days. 

It's a loss for the United States, and even the New York Times Editorial Board noticed and took a break from polishing Trump's balls to say this.

Today in Lying Liars Lying

Keith Sonderling, Trump's Acting Secretary of Labor just threatened nearly every state and territory in the union with an unemployment funding cutoff for imaginary fraud.

These are truly horrible human beings.

Keith Sonderling sent letters to 53 states and US territories demanding action to “combat waste, fraud, and abuse” within the unemployment insurance program, threatening to withhold administrative funds from states for the first time in history.

“We are officially putting governors on notice,” said the acting US secretary of labor. “The American people will no longer tolerate the blatant waste, fraud, and abuse of their hard-earned tax dollars – no state should allow it either. If states allow it, they will suffer the consequences. This department is no longer afraid to use every lever available to ensure taxpayer money is protected.”

The agency did not provide data on fraud or alleged fraud in unemployment systems, but highlighted three Democrat-led states – California, New York and Illinois – and made claims about each.

Spoiler, Florida has a higher error rate than any of those states.

Remember When Colbert Played the Vince Guaraldi Peanuts Music on his Last Show?

He ended up costing CBS a lot of money.

No amount disclosed for the settlement, the Lee Mendelson Film Productions announced that, "It would donate all proceeds to World Central Kitchen, the disaster-relief food non-profit founded by chef José Andrés."

Sweet, 

Well, I Got This One Wrong

I was certain that the Federal Reserve would raise rates today.  They did not.

Once again, the Saroff powers of prognostication maintain their sterling record of failure. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Still, it looks like there will be a rate hike later in the year, so the bond markets were spooked.

Federal Reserve officials Wednesday signaled they might soon need to raise interest rates instead of cutting them, a sharp shift in thinking amid a rapid rise in inflation.

The Fed kept interest rates steady Wednesday at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed chair, as the new central bank chief inherited an economy hit by energy-driven inflation that is squeezing consumers’ wallets and a White House pushing for lower borrowing costs.

Nine of the 19 officials who participate in Fed policy meetings penciled in at least one rate increase by the end of the year, up from zero in March, when most Fed officials still anticipated cutting rates.

Financial markets fell on the signals of higher interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down about 1 percent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 1.3 percent. Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds jumped, as investors demanded higher returns to compensate for the prospect of potentially rising interest rates.

It is what it is, and I have no clue as to what it is.

 

Primary in New York Tonight

The candidates backed by Zorhan Mamdani all won, and given the nature of the districts, their elections in the general are almost certain.

Progressive allies of Zohran Mamdani swept through New York’s primaries Tuesday, handing defeats to mainstream Democrats in deep-blue congressional districts and boosting the New York City mayor’s standing as a kingmaker in the party.

Former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander ousted incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman in a race that centered on Israel and the war in Gaza. State Assemblywoman Claire Valdez and community organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier, members of the Democratic Socialists of America, defeated Democratic candidates endorsed by establishment leaders.

The victories of Lander, Avila Chevalier and Valdez—all endorsed by Mamdani—highlight the mayor’s expanding influence within the Democratic Party and demonstrate how the DSA has leveraged his popularity to help elect more of its candidates. The victories will likely add to Mamdani’s list of allies inside the New York delegation to Washington. In the predominantly blue city, the winners in the Democratic primaries are heavily favored in the November general elections.

In another closely watched race, New York Assemblyman Micah Lasher, 44 years old, won the primary to succeed retiring Rep. Jerrold Nadler in one of New York’s wealthiest districts, representing parts of Manhattan. Lasher beat out a crowded field of challengers for the 12th Congressional District, including fellow state Assemblyman Alex Bores; Jack Schlossberg, a grandson of President John F. Kennedy; and George Conway, the ex-husband of former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway, who ran as the most vocal advocate of impeaching the president. Mamdani, who lives in the district and didn’t endorse a candidate in this race, declined to say who he voted for.

Glad that Schlossberg's Kennedy electoral tourism did not work out, and even happier that George Conway lost.  (The man is a Republican)

Skeet of the Day

Congratulations to Elon on becoming the world’s first trillionaire from London 🔥

[image or embed]

— WuTangIsForTheChildren (@wutangforchildren.bsky.social) June 12, 2026 at 3:17 PM

This is from London, where the "C-Word" is far less offensive than it is in the USA. (It's even less offensive still in Australia.)

Best Military in the World

The F-35 has only a 25% mission read rate.

No wonder Iran won the war.

The F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter’s readiness rates continued to decline through fiscal 2025, with the fleet’s full mission capable rate falling to 25%, according to a new Government Accountability Office report released Thursday.

The mission capable rate, which measures the percentage of time aircraft can perform at least one of their tasked missions, dropped from 67% in fiscal 2021 to 44% in fiscal 2025, GAO found.

The full mission capable rate, the share of time aircraft can perform all assigned missions, slid from 38% to 25% over the same period.

Air Force officials attributed part of the fiscal 2025 drop to new jets that couldn’t perform their missions because of software delays, along with scarce parts and corrosion problems, according to the report.

“The F-35 is DOD’s most costly weapon system, but it hasn’t met performance goals and costs to sustain the aircraft continue to increase,” GAO wrote in a summary accompanying the report.

The Military Industrial Complex is now eating itself.

The Obama Center is a Monument to the More Effective Evil | Black Agenda Report

The Obama Center is a Monument to the More Effective Evil

—Black Agenda Report, discussing Obama's Presidential library

That's a pretty good summary of what the library is in moral terms.

I have already commented on how it is an architectural atrocity.  Margaret Kimberly makes a good case for it being a moral atrocity as well.

Barack Obama bailed out the banks, deported millions, and devastated nations and millions of people through wars of aggression. The $850 million Obama Center is a monument to his role as the "more effective evil" in U.S. politics.

“Barack Obama does not carry our burden, in addition to other burdens. He in fact promises to lift white-people-as-a-whole’s burden, the burden of having to listen to these very specific and historical black complaints, to deal with the legacies of slavery. That is his promise to them. That is what allowed him to amass huge, huge numbers of white votes. And he will amass larger and larger percentages of black votes now that black folks see that white folks will vote for Barack Obama.” - Glen Ford, January 9, 2008

The Obama Center, Barack Obama’s oligarch funded monument to himself, cost a grand total of $850 million to build. The ability to raise such a huge amount of money tells much of the story of the Obama presidency. Barack Obama, like all other presidents, was beholden to the ruling class and accordingly carried out all of their directives, which is what one might expect. In return, presidents are paid off upon leaving office with the likes of Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates donating $25 million each to the Obama Foundation to build the Obama Center. Their largess is an indicator of what Obama did so well. He very skillfully marketed himself as a progressive while breaking fundraising records with a $750 million war chest haul in his 2008 campaign. Glen Ford described the contradictions as, “Goldman Sachs and the anti-war movement being on the same page.”

(emphasis original)

The essay is well written and righteous.  Read the rest.

Another Day, More Fascism

Federal prosecutors have charged anti-ICE 15 protesters with conspiracy and related charges for protests in and around Minneapolis.

I wonder what sort of f%$#ed up sh%$ the prosecutors pulled in the grand jury to get indictments.

It probably makes what happened in Chicago look like a cake walk.

Federal prosecutors have charged 15 Minnesotans who are accused of efforts to “violently oppose immigration law enforcement” during Operation Metro Surge protests.

Outside the Warren E. Burger Federal Building, where some of the defendants’ first appearances took place, protesters clashed with U.S. Marshals, who deployed gas, pepper spray and flash bangs at the scene.

A dozen of those charged were arrested. Numerous defendants were released later in the day.

The Minnesota U.S. Attorney’s Office, alongside Homeland Security Investigations officials, said the charges stem from “conspiring to impede or injure federal officers and other offenses against members of two Minneapolis-based antifa groups.” Antifa, short for antifascist, has been a target of the Trump administration, with the president last year labeling it a domestic terrorist organization.

 

Too Much for Even the 'Phants

It appears that Trumps proposed appointment of corrupt real-estate nepo-baby Bill Pulte as head of DNI was a bridge too far for Senate Republicans.

Gee, hoocoodanode? 

President Trump said on Thursday that he would nominate Jay Clayton, the U.S. attorney in Manhattan, to be the next director of national intelligence, after the president faced a revolt from lawmakers over his choice for an interim director without any relevant experience.

Mr. Trump had been under pressure to move on from his decision to appoint Bill Pulte, a top housing official, as the acting director, replacing Tulsi Gabbard, who announced last month that she would step down from the post.

Mr. Pulte, who has used his current job to attack Mr. Trump’s enemies, had come under withering criticism from Capitol Hill. Both Republicans and Democrats have argued he was unqualified to lead the nation’s intelligence agencies.

………

Mr. Clayton, 59, was recommended for the post by John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, according to a person familiar with the conversation. The current plan is for Mr. Pulte to take over from Ms. Gabbard on June 19 and serve as the acting director until Mr. Clayton’s nomination is reviewed by the Senate.

………

Senate Democrats may also support a speedy confirmation of Mr. Clayton, if only to push Mr. Pulte out of the acting role. Senator Mark Warner of Virginia, the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said he needed a guarantee that Mr. Pulte would not serve as the acting director, a sentiment echoed by Senator Chuck Schumer, the minority leader.

I'm wondering if this was actually the plan all along.

Guck Favin

It looks like everyone's favorite political tweeter, and political sh%$-heel, Gavin Newsom is pulling out all the stops to kill California's billionaire tax.

F%$# him with Cheney's dick. 

Governor Gavin Newsom is mounting a last-ditch pressure campaign to stop a proposed California billionaire tax from ever reaching voters.

During a call last month, he assured a major Democratic donor the levy would be successfully negotiated away before a June 25 deadline, a person familiar with the call said, asking not to be named discussing a private conversation.

………

Now Newsom has less than two weeks to make good on his promise and convince the group behind the measure to withdraw its proposal, averting a costly showdown in the November general election. A spokesperson for the governor declined to comment on the call.

The proposal, which would impose a one-time 5% tax on a billionaire’s net worth, has become one of the most closely watched political fights in California, exposing divisions within the Democratic Party and serving as a test of the broader appetite in the US for taxing extreme wealth.

Powerful new allies recently joined Newsom’s crusade. Groups like the California branch of Planned Parenthood and the state’s largest teachers’ union now publicly oppose the tax.

Together, they’ve formed an unlikely bloc against the levy: Newsom and progressive groups as well as Democratic and Republican mega-donors, like Peter Thiel and Sergey Brin.

For SEIU-UHW, the healthcare union that proposed the measure, and its leader, Dave Regan, the growing opposition means the campaign is no longer just taking on billionaires. It is also going up against groups representing teachers and carpenters, as well as Democratic stalwarts.

They are all screaming that the billionaires will move to Texas and Florida to avoid taxes.

After a year, said billionaires will learn realize that THEY ARE LIVING IN FLORIDA OR TEXAS, and they will want to return to a place that is not a f%$#ing snake pit.

The taxes raised are not that important.  What is important is giving the billionaires in general, and the Tech Bros in particular, a loss. 

Started a New Job Today

At Thales DSI.

As is my custom, I will not be providing any details, though I may comment on something gets coverage in the mainstream media, and probably not even then.

I will note that the intake orientation was quite amusing in a good way.  Their security guy was very funny, as in standup comic funny, all while communicating what is required in a clear and concise way.

Best orientation that I have ever been to. 

Would have told you earlier, but I did not want to jinx it. 

Womp, Womp, Womp, Wommmmp!

Facebook Post of the Day Much like every other construction that Donald Trump has been involved with, it appears that his "restoration" of the reflecting pool is a resounding failure.

It's all about the grift for him, construction quality be damned.

The newly renovated Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool seems unable to escape an old scourge: algae blooming in the shallow water.

Thin layers of algae floated on the World War II Memorial side of the pool Friday morning, even after workers were seen cleaning out algae from the bottom of the pool Wednesday.

The reflecting pool construction project started in April and work was completed last week as part of President Donald Trump’s sprawling plan to spruce up the capital ahead of the nation’s 250th anniversary. The president has characterized the century-old pool as “filthy” and “dirty,” claiming that the pool would look “far more beautiful, more beautiful than it did in 1922” upon renovation.

Yes adding that Trump Kitsch will make it so more beautiful. 

Linkage

• Demand Is Booming for New No Tech, Repairable Tractor (404 Media) Ursa Ag is building tractors with minimal electronics that can be repaired by the farmer. Also a lot cheaper.
• AI Doesn't Have ROI (Where's Your Ed At) Not only are AI roll-outs are not showing improvements in productivity or reductions in costs, but there is currently no measures currently available to determine this.
• Scientists make sourdough bread using yeast found in 5,000-year-old mummy (The Guardian) Yeast, which probably infected the cadaver of Ötzi the Iceman postmortem.  Interesting, and a bit gross.
• ‘Ugly in a beautiful way’: Denmark’s mullet championship celebrates divisive hairstyle (The Guardian) Nope.  Nope.  Nope.
• A priceless book of Yiddish songs from the Holocaust lay in a Sydney cupboard for decades – now it has been rescued (The Guardian) Yiddish songs written by Holocaust Survivors.
• Graham Platner Won Maine by 50 Points. The Establishment Is Furious. Good. (Let's Address This) This is a good synopsis of how the Democratic Party establishment (There is no Democratic Party establishment) tried and failed to take Platner down.
• Trad Wives And Tate Bros: My Weekend With TPUSA's Submission Marketeers (National Memo) A reporter goes undercover, and reveals what the antediluvian right is saying to each other.  Spoiler: We have no common ground whatsoever.
• Judge Blocks National Parks From Removing ‘Negative’ Signs and Depictions of Slavery (New York Times) Trumps erasure of our history of slavery must be reversed by election day.

The best Mastercard commercial ever:

Headline of the Day

DEMOCRATS SHOULD TRY LANDING THE FIRST PUNCH

—No More Mister Nice Blog: No More Mister Nice Blog, saying that Democrats lose because when they engage in outreach to former Republican voters, they apologize instead of telling the truth about Republicans.

He is completely right.

I do not know why they do this, but it is like the bite of a dog into a stone, a stupidity. 

………

Waldman notes that this appears to be an ideal moment for Democrats to try to win over Americans who've been voting Republican but now think the country is going in the wrong direction. But Waldman doesn't agree with the approach recommended by centrist Democrats:

The professional centrists in the Democratic Party look at a moment like this one and say “Now those moderate voters will finally be open to our apology! We can go to them and say ‘We know you think we suck, and you’re right, we do suck, but we’re going to try to do better.’”

He's right. That's a terrible message. In broad outline, I agree with what Waldman recommends instead:

... Democrats have been lectured endlessly about how they need to apologize and listen to Trump voters so that they might make them feel more warmly toward Democrats, while barely anyone acknowledges how absolutely vital it is that they work to change how these voters feel about Republicans.

As Harry S Truman once said, "I never did give them hell. I just told the truth, and they thought it was hell."

Unfortunately, the Democratic Party establishment (There is no Democratic Party establishment) in general, and the consultants in particular, want to run milquetoast campaigns that are driven by fund raising, because they get a cut of the media buy.

Revealing Herself

Faced with a winnable race in the newly redistricted Florida, Debbie Wasserman Schultz decided instead to carpet-bag on the sole remaining majority minority district in the state, because, I guess, actually campaigning is too much of a chore.

Not long ago, it seemed like 2026 might be an epic comeback year for the Florida Democratic Party. Barely two months into President Trump’s second term, they gained ten points on their 2024 numbers in two North Florida special elections. Then Miami voted in a Democratic mayor for the first time in 30 years. And this March, the state House seat containing Mar-a-Lago and Jeffrey Epstein’s pedo palace down the street flipped blue, after Republicans had previously won the seat by nearly 20 points.

Trump’s approval ratings in the state hover in the low to mid-40s, as the DeSantis brand has gone into wind-down mode alongside the massive torture cage known as Alligator Alcatraz, into which the Trump and DeSantis administrations jointly disappeared thousands of migrants before authorities quietly decided $1.2 million a day was too costly, even for President Ballroom. A state that hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since Lawton Chiles won his fifth statewide race in 1994 has a gubernatorial candidate in former Republican congressman David Jolly, who has explicitly modeled his campaign after the publicity stunt that put Chiles on the map, in which the U.S. Senate candidate walked 1,000 miles from Pensacola to Key West in 1970, shaking hands and giving speeches about the problems and aspirations of the people he met along the way.

But then Debbie Wasserman Schultz announced she would be running for Congress to represent Florida’s 20th Congressional District, a dense parcel of central Broward County directly north of the district she currently represents. Gov. DeSantis’s last-minute gerrymandering gambit had divided her current district, the 25th, into the far corners of four new districts, none of which were the 20th, but the appeal to a political insider was obvious: The 20th contains the largest concentration of Democratic voters in the state.

The disincentive to run was equally obvious: The district was explicitly drawn back in 1991 to be a majority-Black district, in accordance with a provision of the Voting Rights Act that was just largely scrapped by the Supreme Court in a decision met with the universal condemnation of Democrats, mostly because it represented the latest gambit in a long campaign to gut the VRA and suppress the votes of low-income minorities. Ironically but predictably, the 20th survived the gerrymander demographically intact; as currently constructed, roughly half of its population is Black, a quarter is white, and about 65 percent are registered Democrats.

What on earth would possess lily-white Wasserman Schultz, who was warning about the Supreme Court plot to gut the VRA long before it was cool, to parachute into a race alongside four viable Black candidates, less than four months before the primary?

……… 

The real mystery, [Former Broward Mayor and candidate in the same district Dale] Holness claims, is why Wasserman Schultz would choose not to run in the district in which she actually lives, the new 22nd District, which voted for Trump by about nine points in 2024 but by even higher margins in favor of a ballot initiative enshrining the right to an abortion, and swung to Biden by three points in 2020. 

Because, even though running in her own district is safe, she feels entitled to a massively Gerrymandered seat so she will not have to break a sweat.

It's all about the self-entitlement that comes with being a senior member of the Democratic Party establishment (There is no Democratic Party establishment).

It's just careerist selfishness. 

Fasten Your Seatbelts. It’s Going to Be a Bumpy Ride

The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.1% in May.

I don't mean that it rose by a 1.2% annualized rate, I mean that the price numbers went up by 1.1% in a single month.  The same thing happened in April, so this is not a 1 month blip, and the 12 month PPI is up 6.5%. 

Prices charged by American producers continued to charge higher in May, the Labor Department said Thursday, marking another month of elevated wholesale inflation.

The producer-price index rose by 1.1% last month, following an equal increase in April. Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal were expecting a 0.7% increase.

Over the past 12 months, the PPI is up by 6.5%, the fastest wholesale inflation since 2022.
Energy prices explained a good deal of the elevated trend, rising by more than 10% in May alone. But even excluding food, energy and trade-services categories, wholesale prices were up by 0.8%, a rapid one-month increase.

 The Fed is going to raise rates this week.

Finally

State Attorneys General in New York, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Vermont are over payments made to French firm TotalEnergies to shut down their offshore wind projects.

New York’s attorney general is leading a lawsuit against the Trump administration to challenge its deal that put an end to a French energy company’s offshore wind projects.

As part of an agreement with the Trump administration, TotalEnergies said in March it would stop developing offshore wind projects in the U.S. and will instead invest in oil and gas production in the country. The government said the company would be paid $928 million—the value of its offshore wind leases—which would then be reinvested into oil and gas projects.

The lawsuit was filed on Tuesday in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia by attorneys general from New York, Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island and Vermont.

“We are fighting back to stop this illegal agreement that threatens to erase over a thousand union jobs and cheat millions of New Yorkers out of clean, affordable energy,” New York Attorney General Letitia James said.TotalEnergies has said it won’t pursue any further offshore wind leases in the U.S.

“This pay-not-to-play scheme pressuring a foreign company to forgo planned offshore wind projects in America in favor of gas and oil drilling is an outrageous abuse of taxpayer dollars that hurts our ability to meet our energy needs, create good jobs, and help secure American energy independence while reducing emissions,” New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said.

It should be noted that before the payment was made, Trump attempted to shut down the program through executive order, and when he lost in court, made it clear that he would continue harassing TotalEnergies, and then offered a payment for them to shut down the project.

This is protection racket gangster bullsh%$.

Nae True Scotsman?

The Ex-Husband of former Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has pled guilty to stealing hundreds of thousands of Pounds from political donations to the Scottish National Party.

The shocking thing is that he spent his much of his ill-gotten gains on the most mundane items, which has become a running gag in Scottish politics.

A political operative’s yearslong scheme to embezzle party funds has become a source of anger and embarrassment in Scotland, but not entirely for the reasons you might think.

What’s really galling to Scots is the culprit’s lack of ambition.

Among the items Peter Murrell purchased with the $500,000 of political donations he siphoned: two toilet seats, seven vacuum cleaners, a four-and-half pound jar of Nescafe Gold Blend, and 108 rolls of toilet paper.

“Who steals instant coffee?” said Brian McNeill, who works in financial services. “He makes us look like a nation of lightweights.”

Murrell, the Scottish National Party’s former chief executive, pleaded guilty last month to taking the £400,000. The plea might have closed a shameful chapter for the government as it pushes to secure Scotland’s independence from the rest of the U.K. Instead, the past few weeks have brought a torrent of ridicule on the 61-year-old fixer and his estranged wife, former Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon, as Scots sifted through the 627 individual items listed in court documents.

………

But there’s a longer list of mundane purchases that has sparked a debate about their relative dumbness. Some critics wondered why Murrell didn’t buy better stuff, like a Lamborghini or one of the cheaper Picassos.Many favor the $147 pencil sharpener as the worst offender. Some are partial to the three bird-feeders Murrell bought for $207. Others bemoaned the missed opportunities, wondering why Murrell couldn’t have gotten a Lamborghini or one of the cheaper Picassos. They all pondered what the items revealed about two people who dominated politics here for so long.

Sturgeon, who resigned ahead of Murrell’s arrest three years ago and now lives in London, denied any knowledge of her now-estranged husband’s spending habits, prompting former colleague Joanna Cherry to note her “remarkable lack of curiosity” about the robotic lawnmower and all the stuff being delivered to their home in Glasgow.

She knew.  The legal term for this is wilful blindness, and it makes her an accessory. 

Still, this does seem to be a particularly Scottish sort of scandal, at least on the spending side. 

Today in Fascism

Ice attempted to raid the offices of lawyers representing migrant children.

Of course they did this without any warrants.

Cops don't get to seize lawyers records, but they don't care, because they are little more than a heavily armed gang. 

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents attempted to raid the offices of attorneys for unaccompanied migrant children this week, lawyers tell The Lever, the latest escalation in the Trump administration’s attempt to collect sensitive data on children in the U.S. immigration system.

As The Lever first reported last week, the legal services providers for unaccompanied migrant children — who represent the youth in deportation proceedings — have been locked in a standoff with the Trump administration over requests for sensitive case data on their clients.

Now, ICE agents are arriving at their doors.

Dozens of nonprofits and law firms around the country provide critical legal representation to migrant children under the Unaccompanied Children Program, which is funded by the Department of Health and Human Services. The program has become a central focus in the Trump administration’s ongoing targeting of immigrants.

………

Providing sensitive client data to the federal government could represent a serious violation of attorney-client privilege and put vulnerable children at risk, attorneys say. Already, the immigration courts are expediting children’s cases in an apparent attempt to deport children as fast as possible.

On Thursday, two agents with Homeland Security Investigations, the primary investigative arm of ICE and the Department of Homeland Security, arrived at the Washington, D.C., offices of the Amica Center for Immigrant Rights, which represents unaccompanied minors.

According to the organization’s executive director, Michael Lukens, security guards turned the agents away when they did not present a valid warrant.

 Calling these people, "Good Germans," gives them too much credit.