It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Initial claims


Continuing claims The numbers look good on initial inspection, but the monthly job numbers look bad upon further examination. (The Friday numbers come out Thursday because of the 4th of July holiday)

Specifically, the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% in may to 4.1%, but this was because 329,000 people stopped looking for work, and are no longer counted.  

The job number, which indicates 149,000 new jobs is largely an artifact of the school year ending, which creates a seasonal adjustment that boosts government jobs numbers.  Private hiring was up only74,000.

The labor participation rate also fell to a 2½-year low of 62.3%.

Meanwhile, on the unemployment filings beat, the numbers were better than forecast, with initial claims falling and continuing claims flat.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 233,000 in the week of June 28, down 4,000 from 237,000 in the week ending June 21, revised from 236,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 240,000. These data are seasonally adjusted by the Department of Labor. The 4-week moving average was 241,500, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week’s average of 245,250, revised from 245,000.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” – in the week ended June 21 was 1.964 million, unchanged from the prior week’s level, which was revised down from 1.974 million. The 4-week moving average was 1.954 million, up from 1.938 million in the previous week, revised from 1.941 million. This is the highest level for this average since November 20, 2021, when it was 2.004 million.

There is definite softening in hiring.  I'm still looking for work, and don't expect any feedback from my interviews until next week at least, as we are into the summer vacation season.

Damn.