Headline of the Day

Iran War Exposes Saudi Arabia's Bad Bet on Trumpism

Foreign Policy, on how Trump has done lasting damage to the House of Saud (Archive.is link)

It has been known for about 50 years that Donald Trump is a sucker bet. 

Saudi Arabia is in serious trouble. Its global influence primarily comes from its leading position as an oil producer and the money resulting from that role, but now the Middle East is on fire. Today, Saudi tankers are blocked in the Persian Gulf and under threat in the Red Sea, and the country’s biggest oil pipeline had to shut down after a drone attack. Yet Saudi Arabia’s biggest long-term problem may be that its longtime security guarantor, the United States, is unable to put out the fire and doesn’t seem especially interested in trying. 

Since World War II and especially since the end of the Cold War, the Middle East has rested on a deal: U.S. military dominance provides relative stability, deterring and countering aggression, ensuring freedom of navigation, containing Iran, organizing air defense, and helping friendly governments to stay in power. In exchange, Saudi Arabia and the smaller Gulf Arab states—Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—host U.S. bases, cooperate on counterterrorism, and maintain the smooth flow of oil. The clearest example of this working was in 1990-91, when a U.S.-led coalition prevented Iraq from taking any Saudi oil fields and pushed Iraqi forces out of Kuwait. 

U.S. President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran broke that arrangement beyond repair, and Saudi Arabia doesn’t have a replacement.

 To quote the movie Animal House, "You f%$#ed up, you trusted us."

This is Beautiful, Man!

Too good not to share
by u/Roy4Pris in Military

It's funny because it's true.

Trump Admin Lying About Troop Deaths

Is anyone surprised that Pete Hegseth's Pentagon is lying about casualties?

Hell, the US military has been lying about troop deaths since before Vietnam. 

More American service members have died in the Middle East during the ongoing Iran war than the Pentagon has disclosed publicly, according to six U.S. officials familiar with the Defense Department’s internal casualty accounting data.

Five of the officials said there have been at least 22 military fatalities — four more than what appears in the Pentagon’s public database, known as the Defense Casualty Analysis System, or DCAS.

A sixth official, who like the others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the figures, said 23 service members have died since Feb. 28, when the Trump administration, in concert with Israel, initiated the Iran war. Not all of the undisclosed deaths are directly tied to the conflict but have involved U.S. personnel who were in the Middle East amid ongoing hostilities, this person said.

Additionally, the official said, three U.S. contractors who were based in the region have died since combat operations began.

As of Friday, the Pentagon’s DCAS database lists 18 U.S. military fatalities, including deaths caused by hostile and nonhostile action dating to the start of the Iran conflict.

 

The War is Going Great

Oil at $109/bbl the Houthis took out the East-West oil pipeline.

So much winning.

Oil prices surged higher after a wave of attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure last week forced Riyadh to shut a vital export pipeline.

The kingdom, the world’s top oil exporter, then pulled out of a regional meeting with Iran scheduled for Monday, setting back regional efforts to de-escalate hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose as much as 5 per cent to $109.80 a barrel on Monday. It later settled at $109.80, up 1 per cent for the day.

Riyadh announced late Friday that it was shutting the pipeline — which became crucial to the kingdom’s ability to export crude from its oil-rich east to its west coast after Iran throttled shipping through the Hormuz Strait — following a drone attack from Iraq, where Iran-backed Shia militias and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are active.

The War is Going Great

It looks like the Houthis are on a roll on the Arabian peninsula with attacks bombed the cross Arabia crude oil pipeline, forcing a shutdown.

A drone attack launched from Iraqi territory led Saudi Arabia to shut down a critical oil pipeline on Friday, heightening fears that widening clashes in the region could further disrupt energy supplies. The global price of oil briefly jumped to about $110 a barrel.

The Saudi Arabian Energy Ministry said that the shutdown of the East-West pipeline, an increasingly vital means to shuttle oil from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea, was a precautionary measure. The country’s foreign ministry said it would not immediately retaliate at the request of the Iraqi government, which said it would work to find the source of the attack.

Yeah, it was some random dude in Iraq. Just a few days after the Houthis hit Jazan on the red sea coast just north of Yemen.  Yeah, sure.

In the mean time, in actions that don't have a smidgen of plausible reliability, the Houthis have seized almost all of the country's west coast, including strategic islands at the mouth of this body of water, meaning that they have control of anything entering the Red Sea.

This given the volume of trade that goes through Suez, this is significant.

The Iranian-backed Houthi militia seized an island in a choke point of the Red Sea after days of fierce fighting, two Yemeni government officials said Friday, giving Iran and its allies sway over the two main routes for shipping oil out of the Middle East.

The capture of Perim Island came as Saudi Arabia announced that it had shut down a critical oil pipeline, a day after Houthi forces swept into the strategic port city of Mokha in Yemen. Both were major setbacks for the Saudi kingdom, which exports most of its oil through the Red Sea. The kingdom’s foreign ministry said the pipeline was hit on Thursday by drones launched from Iraq.

Perim Island sits in the middle of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the narrow pathway at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. Its seizure adds a new dimension in the war between the United States and Iran. The Islamic republic has already largely cut off the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf and leveraged that influence to demand concessions from Washington.

Now, the Houthi militia, Iran’s ally, has a foothold at a bottleneck in the Red Sea and could further disrupt shipping there.

The United States is losing the war even more now. 

A Foreseeable Consequence

As a result of the US attack on them, Iran is charting a more aggressive and active path in foreign relations, because they have concluded that the US is spent.

The Iran war hawks got their war, and they lost.

Iran has grown more confident in its ability to attack targets in the Middle East and appears determined to continue the conflict for months to frustrate the United States, according to U.S. intelligence reports in recent weeks.

In many respects, the assessments reflect what has been observable on the ground as fighting erupted again after a period of relative calm. In the past week, Iran targeted ships in the Strait of Hormuz and American troops in the region, and U.S. forces struck inside Iran, killing military personnel and civilians.

The new exchanges have been limited so far. But the intelligence reports, according to people who have read them, suggest that Iran’s hard-line government might be contemplating a significant escalation.

Iran has emerged from months of the on-again, off-again war with a far better understanding of its military strengths and is more sure of its capabilities, according to officials briefed on the intelligence.

………

In the coming weeks, Iran could take actions akin to what it did in July, according to U.S. officials. At that time, Iran attacked American military bases in the Middle East, killing three Americans in Jordan; struck shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; and struck infrastructure in Kuwait and elsewhere.

………

There are signs that Iran-linked hackers may have regrouped in recent months after sustaining some losses at the start of the war, according to current and former U.S. officials.

………

Iran’s leadership also appears to have a more precise understanding of how to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz, which carried one-fifth of the world’s oil before the war.

………

Others briefed on the reports said Iran probably believes that the U.S. military will be hard pressed to mount major new strikes as its munitions stockpiles dwindle.

Every other nation on earth concerned about being on the United States' "Naughty List" is taking notes right now. 

Not a Good Look

Click to embiggen







I am referring, of course, to CVN-72, the USS Abraham Lincoln, which has arrived in Laem Chabang, Thailand looking like an extra from the zombie film 28 Days Later.

No wonder crewmen were literately throwing themselves into the ocean. 

The U.S. Navy’s supercarrier USS Abraham Lincoln is now in Thailand for a much-deserved and highly publicized liberty port call. The carrier had gone 286 days without making such a stop, with much of that time spent executing grueling combat operations against Iran. The ship has been run very hard, relying on at times a rickety conveyor of sea replenishments to continue operating for months on end, and it has the scars to show for it. The Lincoln looks very much worse for wear, with so-called “running rust” and algae caked all along the sides of the hull, as well as around the edges of the flight deck and sponsons on either side. It’s something of a startling appearance for one of the most powerful ships on the planet and a major symbol of U.S. power projection, but it is also a reminder of what the vessel and its crew have endured for months on end.

The Lincoln arrived in the Thai port of Laem Chabang earlier today. The carrier did make a stop in Guam in December 2025 and reportedly made another one somewhere in the Middle East in July. However, in both cases, these have been characterized as brief logistical stopovers that did not offer any real opportunity for personnel onboard to disembark. Thai media reports say the carrier is expected to remain in Laem Chabang through the end of the weekend.

Great Googly Moogly!

Pakistan Said This?

While there have been recent movement toward China over the past few years, Pakistan has been in the pocket of the United States.

Not any more, it seems, because Pakistan has stated that it is not bound by unilateral US sanctions against Iran.

Pakistan said it is not “obliged to” comply with unilateral sanctions on Iran unless they are imposed by the United Nations, signaling a willingness to continue trade after the US warned of economic penalties against countries doing business with Tehran.

Islamabad is following bilateral agreements with Iran and while trade between the two neighbors remains robust, “there is a desire to expand,” Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi said at a weekly briefing Thursday.

Pakistan relied on its ties with Iran to negotiate the release of oil tankers early on during the conflict. The two countries have also agreed to Pakistan, Iran Agree on Completing Free Trade Agreement Soon a Pakistan, Iran Businessmen Aim to Boost Trade to $10 Billion to increase bilateral commerce by more than threefold to $10 billion. 

Pakistan has been trying to balance its relations with the US and Iran during the war. The country has strengthened its ties with the US during President Donald Trump’s second term, particularly after emerging as a key mediator between Tehran and Washington.

Last week, Pakistan’s army chief was in Iran as part of negotiations to end the Middle East conflict after tensions flared up again.

Iran won the war, and there are consequences of this. 

Speaking of Political Malpractice………

Trump's disastrous and incompetent Iran adventure is deeply unpopular, and it's getting less popular by the day, but the Democratic Party establishment (There is no Democratic Party establishment) refuses to come out against the war.

To quote (not) Tallyrand, "This is worse than a crime, this is a mistake." 

There’s definitely something uncanny about this: We’re five months and 10 days into Donald Trump’s war of choice with Iran, and it’s been about five months and five days since he lost it. Trump won’t end the war because he can’t accept terms that make clear how badly he fucked this up, and we’re all captive to his narcissism. The result is that U.S. credibility is in tatters. Everyone’s mad at us for creating a global energy crisis, and rightly so. Nobody trusts Trump to honor his word, because he’s a liar. Nobody trusts him to make good on his threats, because he makes them endlessly but never follows through. He’s depleted U.S. munitions stockpiles badly enough to leave service members, and allies that rely on our preparedness, vulnerable to adversaries.

It’s a cockup of world historic proportions. And yet… it’s often not among Trump’s biggest day-to-day political liabilities. The war is slow-bleeding support from the GOP. But there are no sustained calls for Trump to resign in disgrace, or face impeachment, or any consequences that match the scale of the failure. And yet we know, because we weren’t born yesterday, that presidents and cabinet officials have been mired in damaging controversy for much smaller military blunders. Remember Barack Obama’s redline in Syria? Or Benghazi?

………

What do you think would happen to Democratic Party approval ratings if Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries wrote up an agenda like the one I proposed here, including a promise that if Democrats win the election, they’ll defund Trump’s war against Iran? Would they go up or down?

What if they were able to communicate, unabashedly, that Trump had humiliated America. That through his own foolishness, megalomania, and dishonesty, he had made the United States seem weak and feckless to the world. That this is, for the pendency of his regime, a disaster for U.S. strategic power—but also that it’s fundamentally aberrant. Something Democrats will set right once Trump is gone.

What if Democrats told the electorate, but also the world, that American renewal could begin early, but only if voters gave Democrats enough power to dog walk Trump to the end of his term. No more threats to invade or occupy enemies or allies on a lark. No more denial about the failure of his foreign policy. He might serve his last two years in full—Republicans could still ensure his acquittal on impeachment—but he’d be muzzled and on a tight leash?

People are disinclined to vote for careerist coward hypocrites.

Sub Hed of the Day

In an article noting that Iran seems to be spending a significant amount of resources attempting to blast Amazon warehouses and data centers off the map in the Middle East, we have the sub hed, the line between the headline and the byline saying, "That's one way to deal with data centers."

I like that framing.

There’s data center activism, fought with Facebook groups and petitions, and then there’s data center annihilation, fought with guided missile and suicide drones.

Recently, the Iranian military announced it had hit and damaged two Amazon data centers in the island country of Bahrain with a volley of cruise missiles.

After the attack, the Iranian state media outlet Tasnim published a partial statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, saying that the “IRGC Aerospace warriors… in response to the aggression and assault… by the child-killing American army on the under-construction and civilian facilities of DarKhoveyn, attacked and destroyed the central data infrastructure of the American company Amazon in Bahrain with several cruise missiles.”

Using images from the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 satellites, Bloomberg confirmed an attack on the data center campus had taken place, though noted it’s difficult to say how bad the damage is (Amazon refused to comment on Bloomberg‘s reporting.)

I do not approve of this war, nor do I approve of Iran's theocratic regime, but if they expanded their target list to include Flock Cameras, I would be more receptive to their ideas.

Just saying. 

Gee, You Think?

Iran has struck a number of clandestine CIA sites in the Persian Gulf area recently, leading some to wonder if Russia is providing targeting information to Tehran. 

Gee, you think?

The US has been providing extensive real-time intelligence and extensive mission planning assistance to the Ukraine since the war there began.

Why would anyone think that Russia would not do the same themselves for their ally?

When US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Russian Foreign Secretary Sergey Lavrov on Thursday in Manila, on the margins of a summit of Southeast Asian nations, Moscow’s war on Ukraine was officially the top agenda item.

But the meeting between Rubio and Lavrov was held under the shadow of fresh reports suggesting that Russia might be playing a more active role than it has publicly acknowledged in Iran’s attacks on United States military sites in the Middle East.

Reports of Iran targeting sites belonging to the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) first emerged in the early days of the US and Israel’s war on Iran. Three days into the war, on March 3, The Washington Post reported that a CIA station in the US embassy in Riyadh had been targeted, according to two people familiar with the matter. On March 6, CNN reported, citing US intelligence sources, that Moscow had been helping Tehran locate US personnel and aircraft in the Gulf.

Now, more recently, the Reuters news agency on Wednesday reported that Iranian drone attacks on CIA facilities, specifically on the embassy in Saudi Arabia, had prompted US intelligence to investigate possible Russian involvement, suggesting that the strikes’ effectiveness and precision could suggest possible evidence of support.

I would make a number of points here, first I'm pretty sure that Iran's organic intelligence capabilities in the region are pretty good, and locating covert CIA facilities is probably well within their capabilities, and second, this is a foreseeable and measured response to similar American actions in the Ukraine.

You mess with the bull, you get the horns. 

 

 

Yeah, War is Bad, But

Sometimes it's tough to feel that way, particularly when things like an Iranian drone strike did significant damage to an Amazon Central Data Bahrain.

Not a fan or theocracies, but I am even less of a fan of kleptocratic monopolists like Amazon.

Iranian forces destroyed Amazon’s central data infrastructure in Bahrain, according to state-aligned media reports.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims to have targeted and destroyed the American tech giant’s infrastructure with cruise missiles in response to an American attack that allegedly destroyed an under-construction nuclear site in Southern Iran on Monday, according to reports from Iran’s Fars News Agency. Amazon has not yet confirmed damage to its infrastructure in the region, though Bahraini authorities have acknowledged that air raid sirens were activated on Tuesday and said they intercepted a wave of Iranian strikes, though officials have not reported what, if any, material damage was sustained at this time.

You know, Bezos also has a yacht. According to this website, it was just north of Vanatu 5 days ago.

Gnarly

So, Trump has resumed airstrikes on Iran, and Iran has retaliated, killing at least 2 American soldiers operating air defense units in Jordan, along with strikes on Kuwaiti desalination and power plant.

From a tactical perspective, it appears that the Iranians have better targeting capabilities, as they are hitting specific military targets for tactical advantage, while the US is blowing up bruidges and drinking water infrastructure.  

Meanwhile, it looks like the international fossil fuel markets are getting skittish, and may be going into full panic mode if the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz continue.

We've lost this war, and the sooner that this is acknowledged by the PTB, the better. 

I Hope That This is Trolling

NEWS: A 10 foot tall participation trophy has been placed on the National Mall in honor of Donald Trump's "enthusiastic involvement" in the Iran war.

A group called Secret Handshake is taking credit. pic.twitter.com/EtagBVTEWH

— Aaron Parnas (@AaronParnas) July 13, 2026

Because if the group erecting an, "Iran War Participation Trophy," for Donald Trump is serious, it provides yet more evidence that Idiocracy was a documentary.

If this is a troll, it is a truly master full troll. 

Since I am an optimist, and since a number of media sites, including the Washington Post, have reported that this was a brilliant bit of mockery, I'll just leave it at, "Well played, motherf%$#ers."

Speaking of the Ongoing War

Trump has announced that the cease fire has ended and that the United States will resume its blockade on Iran and charge a 20% fee on all ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

I'm not sure what the legal justification is for charging such a fee, and in announcing the blockade he is announcing a resumption of war against Iran.  (It's why Kennedy called the blockade of Cuba during the Missile Crisis an, "Embargo.")

The fee that President Trump wants to charge ships going through the Strait of Hormuz would significantly increase the cost of transporting oil and other products through the crucial waterway, shipping operators and logistics experts said.

On Monday, Mr. Trump said the United States would charge a 20 percent fee on all cargo shipped through the strait, as a way to recover the cost of providing military protection to vessels using the waterway.

……… 

Mr. Trump did not explain exactly how the 20 percent fee would be calculated.

But if it were charged on the value of the cargo, it could more than double the cost of shipping oil through the strait.

Scores of ships have gone through the strait with Iran’s permission, taking routes close to the Iranian coast. On Monday, Mr. Trump said he was reinstating a U.S. naval blockade of ships that use Iranian ports.

……… 

In late June, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said: “No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway. That’s existing international law.” 

He forgets the most important internal law, "We don't care, we don't have to, we are the United States of America mother f%$#ers."

I Hate Reruns

So, Trump has declared that the cease fire has ended, and the US is launching strikes on Iran while Iran has responded in kind.  (Also, the US has revoked its waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil, which counts for little giving that the shooting war has started up again.)

I expect to see gas price increases returning shortly. 

 

Congress Found Some Cojones

Both houses just passed a joint war powers resolution resolution directing Trump to cease all hostilities against Iran.

I think that this is  second or third time in the 50+ year history of the War Powers Act that it has been used to end hostilities, rather than authorizing them.

The Senate voted to limit President Trump’s ability to conduct military operations against Iran without congressional authorization after four Republicans joined with Democrats in a stinging rebuke to Trump a week after he signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran.

The resolution passed by the Senate on Tuesday afternoon, in a 50-48 vote, directs the president to remove U.S. armed forces from hostilities against Iran unless explicitly authorized by Congress, other than to defend America, an ally or partner from “imminent attack.” The resolution, previously passed by the House, is nonbinding but marks the first time both chambers of Congress have passed the same measure to curb Trump’s power to wage the war against Iran.

………

The House passed the same resolution on June 3, in a 215-208 vote, with four Republicans joining Democrats in support.

I do not think that this will amount to a hill of beans, the Trump administration is not one to follow the law, and the constitutionality of a joint resolution is confusing.

Still, it does appear to be a shift in the political direction of the Republican Party. 

And The Tolls Are Coming Back

In news that would surprise no one, Iran has announced that they will be restarting transit fees Strait of Hormuz after 60 days.

Gee, color me completely unsurprised.

Iran has announced plans to introduce a system of maritime fees in the strait of Hormuz in two months, after the 60-day period of negotiation that has been triggered by the signing of the memorandum of understanding.

Tehran, claiming a historic victory over the US, said the strait was under its control and a European plan for a naval mission to escort ships though the strait would not be welcome. The US on Thursday lifted its blockade of Iran, and oil tankers began freely moving through the critical channel.

………

The talks, which are the first direct meeting between the two sides since they met in Islamabad on 12 April, will be focused on how to implement the 14-clause memorandum, including how to lift sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and ensure that commercial traffic starts to flow freely through the strait of Hormuz.

In a blow to those hoping the strait of Hormuz would be restored to full and permanent freedom of navigation, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator, said the strait needed to be managed, which would come at a cost. 

Trump is a loser.

Speaking of the Predictions of Nostra-Dumbass, a Deal Got Signed with Iran

I got it wrong when I said that there was no deal on the table as well.  There will be a signing a deal in Switzerland. (Apparently Trump signed the deal at Versailles, doubtless while eating cake.)

You gotta hand it to the Islamic Republic of Iran.  It took the Vietnamese 14 years to defeat us, it took the Afghans about 20 years, and it took the Iraqis about 6 years.

It took the Iranians about 16 weeks to kick our ass, as demonstrated by this 14 paragraph memorandum. 

A quick summary of the deal.

1. The end of hostilities, including in Lebanon, and this applies to Israel as well.
2.  Mutual respect of Iranian and US sovereignty.
3. A 60 day deadline this deal unless both sides agree to extend it.
4. The US will end its blockade and remove some troops in 30 days and Iran.
5. Iran will charge no transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz for the next 60 days.
6. Iran gets $300,000,000,000.00 in aid to rebuild. (Maybe not from the US)
7. The US will waive all sanctions immediately and rescind all sanctions as quickly as is practical including those by the UN Security Council and the IAEA.
8. Iran will not develop nuclear weapons.
9. An agreement to remain at the pre-hostilities status quo. 
10. The US agrees not to create or renew any sanctions.
11. The US agrees to release frozen and seized Iranian assets.
12. There will be some sort of arrangement to enforce the final deal.
13. Final status negotiations when paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 are all being implemented. 
14. This agreement shall be formally approved by the UN Security Council.

So, the US withdraws troops from the area, ends the blockade, releases Iranian assets, ends sanctions, arranges for Iran to get three hundred billion dollars, and leans on Israel to end its attacks on Lebanon.

In return, the Iranians agree not to develop nuclear weapons (which they have always said was the case) and not to charge transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days. 

It's a loss for the United States, and even the New York Times Editorial Board noticed and took a break from polishing Trump's balls to say this.

I'll Believe It When I See It

So, we have yet another report of a deal to end the US-Iran War.

I won't believe it until the ink is dry.

Donald Trump has claimed a deal well over a dozen times in the past few months, so the White House's credibility is below that of the Tooth Fairy.

With a draft deal between the United States and Iran now on the table, speculation has been swirling about exactly what is in the agreement.

President Trump insisted on Friday that reports circulating about details of the proposed deal were incorrect. In a post on social media, he said the terms “Iran leaked” to the media “have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing.”

There were conflicting accounts of the deal in Iranian media, with one hard-line news outlet reporting terms more favorable to Iran and the state news agency providing a more measured description. On Friday, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said that a deal “has never been closer,” but added that “the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content.”

Much about the emerging deal remains murky, with both sides keen to frame it as a victory. What is known is that a “memorandum of understanding” between the two sides is under discussion.

I do not see any way that a deal that is acceptable to Iran could be cast as a victor for the United States, since the Iranian government, for very good reason, does not believe that the United States can be trusted to keep its end of the bargain.

As such, I think that any deal that would be signed would necessarily include a removal of sanctions, a repatriation of frozen Iranian assets from the US, and a redeployment of US forces out of the region.

I do not believe that (even with the horrible US press corps) that this could be sold as a victory, and Trump is terrified of being seen a loser.

Then again, what do I know.