I Was Wrong

While shaky, it appears that the US — Iran cease fire has not collapsed in 3 days, as I had predicted.

It's lasted twice that so far, and I now think that it might last almost as long as Liz Truss's tenure as UK Prime Minister.

Or not. 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

I Give it 3 Days

So, Trump has announced a 2 week cease fire with Iran.

That and $31.87 will get you a trenta vanilla sweet cream cold brew with two pumps of vanilla, three pumps of caramel syrup, two pumps of cinnamon dolce syrup, two pumps of hazelnut, two pumps of toffee nut syrup, two pumps of mocha, two pumps of white mocha, two pumps of pumpkin sauce, three pumps of maple pecan syrup, and five shots of espresso at Starbucks.

Otherwise, I see it as worthless.

Over the period of less than a year, the US and Israel have launched strikes while negotiations were ongoing.

It's telling that Iran's 10 point plan in response increases their demands.

While a part of this may be gamesmanship, the Iranian's clearly feel that they have the upper hand.

Just 90 minutes before President Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline to “wipe out a whole civilization” with massive strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and bridges, he granted a two-week extension for diplomacy to continue.

"Granted"?  That's an interesting way of describing TACO Trump chickening out once again.

………

Trump said his ceasefire decision was in response to an appeal from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military chief Gen. Asim Munir, whose government has been serving as mediator between the United States and Iran.

………

After Trump’s announcement, a statement posted by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, which he attributed to the Supreme National Security Council, said it too was responding to Pakistan’s request and Trump’s “acceptance of the general Framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal for negotiations.”

………

In the 10-point proposal Trump said was a basis for negotiations, Iran demanded a permanent end to the war as well as an end to any attacks against the “Axis of Resistance,” as it calls its proxy groups in the region, including Hezbollah. According to a government statement reported by Iranian media late Tuesday, demands also included establishment of a formal protocol for passage through the Strait of Hormuz “that ensures an oversight role for Iran.”

 And Iran's counter proposal?

1. The U.S. must fundamentally commit to guaranteeing non-aggression.
2. Continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz.
3. Acceptance that Iran can enrich uranium for its nuclear program.
4. Removal of all primary sanctions on Iran.
5. Removal of all secondary sanctions against foreign entities that do business with Iranian institutions.
6. End of all United Security Council resolutions targeting Iran.
7. End of all International Atomic Energy Agency resolutions on Iran’s nuclear program.
8. Compensation payment to Iran for war damage.
9. Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region.
10. Cease-fire on all fronts, including Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. 

This does not sound to me like a country that has been cowed into submission. 

The biggest problem with any negotiations is that the US in general, and Trump in particular, have shown themselves to be untrustworthy negotiating partners.

I rather expect the United States to violate the cease fire in the next few days.  It's kind of our thing. 

Headline of the Day

When Pete Hegseth Says “Lethality” He’s Talking About Killing Iranian School Girls

—Dean Baker, stating the obvious about what it means when SecDef Hegseth brags that our military not be constrained by "Woke" rules of engagement.

I’m going to give our “Secretary of War” a little credit. I will assume that even someone as openly bloodthirsty as Hegseth would not deliberately blow up a school building filled with little girls. But this tragic accident, that led to the death of at least 165 Iranian girls between the ages of 7 and 12, was the direct result of Hegseth’s policy.

The main point of the “woke” rules of engagement that Hegseth has constantly derided, and told the military to ignore, is to prevent tragic accidents like the bombing of a girls’ school in the middle of the day. The rules are designed to try to minimize civilian casualties. 

You give Hegseth more credit than I would.  I think that the Trump administration likes the idea of killing civilian noncombatants. 

We Are So Screwed

One of the side effects of the increasing commerce in liquefied natural gas is the production of uelium.

When you cool down the gas, the helium remains a gas, and you can collect it and use it for things like MRI machines and silicon chip manufacture.

Among the strikes made by Iran in retaliation for attacks on its South Pars natural gas facilities, Iran struck the major helium production at Ras Laffan in Qatar, which looks to have the effect of taking 30% of world helium supplies offline.

Days after the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow waterway through which roughly one fifth of the world’s oil passes—closed. While oil has dominated headlines, a third of the world’s commercial helium comes from Qatar and has also been cut off.

Often associated with party balloons, helium is indispensable to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanners, aerospace and the manufacture of microchips for artificial intelligence. With the strait closed, the disruption of the global helium supply chain could have ripple effects that might last for months and affect the most advanced technologies on Earth.

While there is a decent supply and stockpile out there, it is almost certain that helium providers will shortly announce a "Force majeur," and raise prices on existing contracts immediately.

Thanks, Donnie.

H/t PZ Meyers.

TACO for Profit

Is this the best timed trade of 2026?

At 6:50 AM ET today, $1.5 BILLION in notional value worth of S&P 500 futures contracts were bought.

This trade was so large it sent the entire index +0.3% higher that minute.

Then, 14 minutes later at 7:04 AM ET, President Trump announced… pic.twitter.com/zFdZ1sQxeq

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 23, 2026

Roll Tape!

So, Donald Trump announced a unilateral suspension of some strikes on Iran, because Trump Always Chickens Out.

I do not expect Iran to reciprocate, because they (IMHO correctly) believe that this is merely a ploy by the Americans to time for the next round of attacks.

I think that Trump's announcement on social media that there have been, "Very good and productive conversations," probably has another motivation, personal profit.

You see, minutes before he posted it, someone made billions of dollars in futures trades, on the S&P 500 going up and oil prices falling.

It seems that someone was trading on this information, and my guess is that their name rhymes with Ronald Lon Rump. 

Unusually large futures trades placed minutes before a major geopolitical announcement have sparked allegations of potential insider trading, after market participants pointed to timing and scale that appeared closely aligned with U.S. policy developments.

According to data shared by the market-tracking account unusual_whales, approximately $1.5 billion in S&P 500 futures contracts were purchased while roughly $192 million in oil futures were sold just five minutes before President Donald Trump announced a halt to attacks on Iran.

The trades were reportedly four to six times larger than typical order sizes observed at that time.

The sequence of events has raised questions over whether the trades were informed by non-public information, given the immediate market reaction that followed.

What will the SEC do about these suspicious trades? 

I think that they will take a cue from Inspector Renault.

One of these days,  I need to watch Casablanca in one sitting.

I've seen all of it, but not all at once. 

Today in Schadenfreude

Donald Trump demanded that NATO allies supply warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Their response, "Fuck you white man."*

This is totally not a surprise. 

As President Trump’s assault on Iran enters its third week, European leaders are largely resisting his bellicose demands for help in reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

At the same time, they are trying to avoid irreparably damaging their relationship with the United States over their opposition to another war of America’s choosing.

………

The American president also issued a not-so-veiled warning in an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday, saying that “it will be very bad for the future of NATO” if European nations do not join the United States in its effort to reopen the vital waterway to tankers carrying oil, gas and fertilizer. At Monday’s event, he said: “I think we’re going to have some good help. And I think we’re going to be disappointed in some nations, too.”

………

“My leadership is about standing firm for the British interest, no matter the pressure,” Mr. Starmer said without specifically referencing the president. He added that British officials were working with “all of our allies, including our European partners” on what could be done collectively to reopen the Strait.

Even America's poodle is not willing to send their ships into a meat grinder for them.

………

“This is not our war; we did not start it,” Boris Pistorius, Germany’s defense minister, said on Monday morning. He said Germany wanted diplomatic solutions and “sending more warships to the region will likely not help achieve that.”

Even the Germans aren't interesting in this war. That's gotta hurt. 

People do not take kindly to vindictive bullies, 

^*It's a very old joke.
The Lone Ranger and Tonto are being pursued by Apaches, and they are chased into a box canyon. The Lone Ranger says, "Well Tonto, this looks like the end," and Tonto says, "Fuck you white man."

Trump Lied? Pshaw!

I am not at all surprised that the snollygoster of snollygosters Donald Trump lied when he claimed that a former President told him privately that they approved the war.

After Donald Trump claimed twice on Monday that he had spoken to a former US president who told him that he approved of his attack on Iran, all four living former presidents denied having spoken with Trump about Iran in statements from aides to CNN and other outlets.

Donald Trump is to honesty what Ebola is to French kissing. 

Just for Fun?

The US has flattened the non-oil transfer parts of Kharg Island, and Donald Trump said that they may hit the oil terminals, "Just for fun." (As Anna Russel would say, "I'm not making this up, you know.")

This is even more insane than I had previously thought: 

Donald Trump said on Saturday that the United States may carry out more strikes on Iran’s vital Kharg Island oil export hub “just for fun”, rejecting the prospect of a swift peace deal with Tehran.

“The terms aren’t good enough yet,” the US president told NBC News. The Iranian regime wants to make an agreement, he claimed.

After days of conflicting messaging from the White House on how much longer it will continue to wage war on Iran, Trump alleged that US strikes had “totally demolished” most of Kharg Island, and told the network that its military may hit site “a few more times just for fun”.

“We’ve totally decimated it,” he said. “Except, as you know, I didn’t do anything having to do with the energy lines, because having to rebuild that would take years.”

 This is f%$#ed up and sh%$.

I Am Sure that Jeff Bezos Would Want to be Included

You see, the Iranians have declared that Google and Microsoft facilities are legitimate military targets.

Amazon, of course, has already been hit during the war, but I'm pretty sure that Jeff is feeling ignored right now.

Iran should send him a gift as an apology, and in true Amazon manner, they can deliver it by drone.

There’s a new target in 21st century warfare: US tech companies.

According to Al Jazeera, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps made the announcement following attacks on the country by US and Israeli military forces. In retaliation to a specific strike on an Iranian bank — which reportedly killed several civilian employees — Iranian military officials declared that they would now count US- and Israeli-linked financial and tech institutions among their targets.

………

In a document viewed by Al Jazeera, the IRGC listed a number of US tech companies as “Iran’s new targets,” including Google, Microsoft, Palantir, IBM, Nvidia, and Oracle, as well as a cloud computing companies in Israel and several Gulf countries. .

………

A sign that Iran’s not bluffing: the announcement comes after its drones inflicted “structural damage” on three Amazon Web Services facilities in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Those strikes are believed to be the first instance of an adversary targeting US corporate tech facilities in an attack — a sign of the strange new battlefield as commercial tech infrastructure is now visibly embedded throughout the US military apparatus.

It should be noted that the strikes on the Amazon facilities took out much telecommunications capabilities in the region for hours.

It should also be noted that this vulnerability is an unavoidable feature of the cloud.

 

Getting Your War On

Most alarmingly, we are now seeing that the US Military officer corps is rife with Talibaptist Jihadists who see this war as a path to the rapture.

This needs to be removed from the military root and branch, and not just because is contrary to good faith and discipline, but because religious crusades always end up extremely brutal and cruel, even by the standards of the day.

A combat-unit commander told non-commissioned officers at a briefing Monday that the Iran war is part of God’s plan and that Pres. Donald Trump was “anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth,” according to a complaint by a non-commissioned officer.

From Saturday morning through Monday night, more than 110 similar complaints about commanders in every branch of the military had been logged by the Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF).

The complaints came from more than 40 different units spread across at least 30 military installations, the MRFF told me Monday night.

The MRFF is keeping the complainants anonymous to prevent retribution by the Defense Department. The Pentagon did not immediately respond to my request for comment.

One complainant identified themselves as a non-commissioned officer (NCO) in a unit currently outside the Iran combat zone but in Ready-Support status, deployable at any time. The NCO said they were Christian and emailed the MRFF on behalf of 15 troops, including at least 11 Christians, one Muslim, and one Jew. (Full email printed below.)

The NCO wrote to the MRFF that their commander “urged us to tell our troops that this was ‘all part of God’s divine plan’ and he specifically referenced numerous citations out of the Book of Revelation referring to Armageddon and the imminent return of Jesus Christ.”

If you think that making war will lead to the 2nd coming, you have no limits.

Espect to see atrocitys that make My Lai look like acakd-walk.

Also, we now have confirmation that it was the United States that blew up the girls' school in Iran, and what's more, the target was chosen by AI.

The Iranian elementary school building where scores of children were killed as the U.S. and Israel began their massive aerial campaign was on a U.S. target list and may have been mistaken for a military site, multiple people familiar with the strike told The Washington Post.

The deadly attack occurred in the first few hours of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran — just as parents were hurrying to the two-story schoolhouse to take their kids home to safety — and killed at least 175 people, many of them children, according to Iranian state media.

It is still not clear why the building was hit, but one person familiar with the school strike said the building had been identified as a factory and had been an approved strike target. A second person familiar said there was an arms depot target located in the same area and did not know if the United States hit the school by mistake, or if U.S. officials had the wrong intelligence and thought the building was the arms depot.

………

According to five people familiar with the issue, both the Israeli and U.S. militaries are using Palantir’s Maven to conduct operations. Maven is a battlefield intelligence platform. The U.S. version is powered in part by Anthropic’s AI, Claude.

(emphasis mine)

Well, now we know why Anthropic wanted to restrict the Pentagon's use of their technology. They knew that something like this would happen.

Unlike Palantir, I think that the folks at Anthropic understood that using their technology was reckless and its use could land them in the Hague. 

This is not a surprise. 

Also, it appears that SecDef Hegseth shut down a Pentagon program to minimize civilian casualties, because ……… I don't know. ……… Maybe the drunkard thinks that killing little kids is macho?

On a tactical level, it appears that Iran forces have been extremely successful in striking US and Israeli radars and similar systems, so much so that commercial satellite surveillance firm Planet Labs has been pressured into turning off access to imagery from the region.

It turns out that Trump and the Pentagon do have their limits though.  They were very miffed at Israel's targeting Iran's oil infrastructure.  

So it IS all about the oil, huh? 

Speaking of oil, it's above $100.00 a barrel, and Trump has decided to release 172,000,000 barrels from the already-depleated US oil reserves.

I don't think that it will do much, as 20% of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has attacked least 6 ships in the past 24 hours in the Strait.

Oil is going nowhere but up. 

Even more concerning is the fact that the US bombed an Iranian desalination plant, and Iran Iran retaliated by striking a desalination plant in Bahrain.

Both acts are unequivocally war crimes, and serious damage could result in the collapse of whole cities in a matter of just a few weeks.

Well, that's it for now.  Pleasant dreams. 

$100/BBL

Is anyone surprised that oil is now over $100.00 a barrel?

It is foreseeable by anyone with 2 brain cells to rub together that bombing Iran and shutting down the Strait of Hormuz would have this effect.

The chairman of oil producer DNO was flying from New York to Oslo early on Feb. 28 when he told staff to turn off the company’s oil wells in Iraq.

America and Israel had just attacked neighboring Iran. Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani wasn’t taking any chances, having weathered a drone strike on the company’s oil fields in Iraqi Kurdistan last summer. By the time he landed, the pumps had stopped—the first oil shutdown of the war.

To the south, another problem was brewing. An apparent recording of an Iranian naval captain telling ships not to enter the Strait of Hormuz spread through industry WhatsApp groups. 

Tanker traffic slowed to a trickle. The doomsday some oil analysts believed could never happen was coming to pass. Unable to ship crude to world markets, much bigger producers in Iraq began to run out of places to put it. The country cut output by more than two-thirds. Tanks in Kuwait were next to fill up. U.S. oil prices vaulted above $100 a barrel Sunday for the first time since the fallout of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

………

On Saturday, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. signaled it too was slowing production so tanks didn’t overflow. If the strait is still closed this Friday, daily output in the region could fall by more than four million barrels, Kaneva estimates. The decline could reach around nine million by the end of March, representing almost a 10th of global demand. 

Also note that Trump has done nothing to replenish the US Strategic Oil Reserve.

I am so glad that my Sharon* and I are driving hybrid vehicles with fuel economy in the 50 mpg range.

^*Love of my life, light of the cosmos, she who must be obeyed, my wife.

Well, Turnabout is Fair Play

US intelligence sources are claiming that Russia is providing high quality satellite imagery to Iran to aid in Tehran efforts to target the US military in the region.

Considering that the US has been generating and supplying the entire kill chain for numerous US weapon systems to the Ukraine to enable them to strike targets deep inside Russia, this seems to me to be an obvious step for Russia to take. 

Russia is providing Iran with targeting information to attack American forces in the Middle East, the first indication that another major U.S. adversary is participating — even indirectly — in the war, according to three officials familiar with the intelligence.

The assistance, which has not been previously reported, signals that the rapidly expanding conflict now features one of America’s chief nuclear-armed competitors with exquisite intelligence capabilities.

Since the war began Saturday, Russia has passed Iran the locations of U.S. military assets, including warships and aircraft, said the three officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.

………

Analysts said that the sharing of intelligence would fit the pattern of Iran’s strikes against U.S. forces, including command and control infrastructure, radars, and temporary structures, like the one in Kuwait where six service members were killed.

………

Russia’s assistance reshuffles how various countries have engaged in a proxy war since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Throughout that conflict, U.S. adversaries including Iran, China and North Korea have provided Russia with either direct military aid or material support for Moscow’s vast defense industry. The United States has given Ukraine tens of billions of dollars’ worth of military equipment and shared intelligence on Russian positions to improve Kyiv’s targeting.

This is not going to end well.

He's F%$#ing Nuts

So, Trump is demanding unconditional surrender before negotiating with Iran.

This is beginning to sound like that much memed scene from Downfall. 

President Trump declared on Friday that he would settle for nothing short of “unconditional surrender” by Iran, the latest and broadest expansion of his goals for the conflict, and one that could portend a much longer war if he persists in that aim.

Six days into the Israeli and American bombing campaign, Iran has shown no interest, at least publicly, in surrendering. Instead, it has done the opposite, expanding the war to Arab states that host American bases and attacking them with missiles and drones, though in diminishing numbers in recent days.

But Mr. Trump demanded in a social media post that the country capitulate, after which he said would come “the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s),” and promised that the United States and its allies “will work tirelessly to bring Iran back from the brink of destruction.”

The president’s bellicose statement reflects how he has melded his longtime vision of a powerful America that makes maximum use of its military might with his new confidence in his ability to decapitate hostile governments, and personally install a new generation of leaders who he believes will bend to American will.

We are f%$#ed. 

Ecch (Tweet) of the Day

Never seen a covert CIA separatist military operation so heavily advertised as it's happening, as widely and loudly as they can PR it. You'd almost think CIA was running a deception operation here, to stoke IRI paranoia and get them to massacre local Kurdshttps://t.co/Q00UC4isOM

— Mark Ames (@MarkAmesExiled) March 4, 2026

To quote Arthur Conan Doyle, "When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."

There are two possible non-exclusive explanations here that I can think of.

The first is what Mr. Ames suggests, and the second is that this is not an operation to manipulate the Iranians by the US State Security Apparatus, but rather that it is an operation to manipulate Donald Trump by the US State Security Apparatus.

So, About This Iran Thing

The technical term for this is, "Bad day at the office."

Where to start ……… Where to start.

I'll guess I'll start at the most ghoulish thing so far, the online betting site Polymarket is vociferously defending its making book on the war, despite the fact that we have already seen insider trading:

Polymarket has been allowing people to bet on when the US would strike Iran next. Obviously, now that it’s actually happened and people have died, the prediction betting market is feeling some pressure. The site has been at the center of controversy before, including suspicions of insider trading on the Super Bowl halftime show and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

In a statement posted on its site, Polymarket defended its decision to allow betting on the potential start of a war, saying that it was an “invaluable” source of news and answers, before taking shots at traditional media and Elon Musk’s X. The statement reads:

Ah yes, the betting equivalent of snuff films.  Lovely.

On a more significant note, it has been confirmed that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been assassinated by a joint Israeli US operation.  Given his position within Shia Islam, where he was considered one of the most, if not the most, important sources of religious scholarship and authority, it is highly likely that this will inflame sentiment throughout areas with significant Shia populations.

There are two problems with Assassinations, they do not work even when the target is successfully killed, and they legitimize assassination as a tool of statecraft, and western leaders are far more exposed. 

I would also note that among the strikes, somehow or other the US and Israel managed to bomb a girl's elementary school, killing over 50. 

God bless America, huh?

Meanwhile the Strait of Hormuz is shut down, not because of Iranian mines or attacks, but because insurance has been canceled for ships wishing to transit the waterway.

Leading maritime insurers have cancelled war risk cover for vessels operating in the Gulf as the escalating Iran conflict disrupted shipping and sent some freight costs surging.

At least 150 vessels including oil and liquefied natural gas tankers have dropped anchor in the strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters, and at least three tankers were damaged and one seafarer killed over the weekend.

The vital shipping route, through which about 20% of the world’s oil supplies and 20% of seaborne gas tankers pass, is effectively closed after the US and Israel began intense airstrikes on Iran on Saturday.

Several leading mutual marine insurers, including Norway’s Gard and Skuld, the UK’s NorthStandard and the London P&I Club, and the New York-based American Club, said they were cancelling war risk cover for ships operating in the region.

Western shipping companies don't wipe their ass without insurance coverage.

And, of course.there have been deaths of American personnel immediately followed by a typically callous statement by Trump.

President Donald Trump’s indifference towards U.S. soldiers killed in a war he started is not sitting well with some Americans.

Trump, 79, addressed the nation on Sunday and said that “there will likely be more” U.S. military personnel killed in the war with Iran that he started on Saturday, saying “that’s the way it is.”

(emphasis mine)

Finally, we have 3 F-15 Eagle fighters shot down, allegedly by friendly fire from Kuwaiti air defense units.

My guess would be that the volume of Iranian counter-attacks around the Persian Gulf overwhelmed these units, resulting in the shoot-down, though there are a number of other possibilities (sabotage of IFF systems, a strike from Iranian long range SAMs, etc.)

There are already rumblings that the US will declare victory and pull out.

I Take ONE Day Off...

And the United States and Israel are at war with Iran, and allegedly the Ali Khamenei has been assassinated by US air strike.

Trump is claiming that the purpose is regime change. 

As near as I can tell, there have been no plans for a large boots on the ground campaign, and the record of air power triggering regime change is extremely thin, so if I were a betting man, I would bet on this conflict ending up a loss for the United States.

Today in Cowardice

Congressmen Ro Khanna and Thomas Massie are attempting to force a War Powers Act resolution on what looks to be an all out attack on Iran. 

The Democratic Party establishment (There is no Democratic Party establishment) is doing their level best to sabotage this effort, because heaven forbid that a member of Congress should go on the record on the matter of war or peace.

Careerist assholes. 

House Foreign Affairs Committee Democrats have been working behind the scenes to try to prevent a vote on Reps. Ro Khanna and Thomas Massie’s Iran war powers resolution – a measure that would require every member of Congress to go on the record about a potential U.S. war with Iran.

A top Democratic HFAC staffer, multiple sources with direct knowledge tell me, ​​deliberately inflated projections of opposition to the bipartisan measure – warning of 20 to 40 Democratic defections – as part of a broader effort to dampen momentum and prevent the Iran war powers vote from advancing. Khanna and Massie had initially planned to force a vote on the resolution this week, but Democratic leadership is now saying they expect the vote to be delayed until next week or even later. The postponement comes as the Trump administration accelerates preparations for unauthorized military action, overseeing the largest U.S. military buildup in the region in years.

………

A senior Democratic congressional staffer told me it’s “pretty clear” Democratic leadership is working to delay “or potentially sideline” the vote on the Khanna-Massie war powers resolution. “If you’ve been around the Hill, this is a familiar playbook.”

………

The internal effort to sabotage momentum for the Iran war powers resolution reflects a broader strategic calculation among Democratic elites. As a recent Drop Site report detailed, many top Democrats privately believe Iran will ultimately have to be confronted militarily. But they also understand that openly backing another regime change war in the Middle East would be politically toxic. Poll after poll show there is little to no appetite for war with Iran, including lukewarm support among conservatives. The preferred outcome of many AIPAC-aligned Senate Democrats, according to a senior foreign policy aide to Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, is that Trump acts unilaterally, weakening Iran while absorbing the domestic backlash ahead of the midterms.

………

Unlike the run-up to the Iraq war, when the Bush administration orchestrated a sustained campaign to sell the public on invasion, the Trump administration has made little effort to construct a coherent case for war with Iran. They aren’t bothering to lie convincingly to the public. And top Democrats, mainstream media outlets, and liberal commentators have been conspicuously silent.

………

I asked Schumer’s office last week whether he supports Trump’s potential strikes, and whether escalation into a broader regional conflict is a risk he considers acceptable. His office did not respond to my request for comment. Days later, and only after the Drop Site report was published, Schumer’s office issued a minimal statement in support of congressional war powers.

Heaven forbid that Schumer and the rest of the Democratic Party establishment (There is no Democratic Party establishment) make anything like a meaning full statement on this.

It's not like Congress has any role in going to war. (Spoiler, only Congress can declare war)

………

Votes to invoke the War Powers Resolution are historically rare on Capitol Hill – though they have increased in frequency in recent years – and party leadership in both chambers has sought to avoid them. Passed over Nixon’s veto, the War Powers Resolution of 1973 was designed to guarantee that decisions about war reflect congressional deliberation and, by extension, the will of the American people before a president pulls the trigger. Forcing members to take a recorded position on military action carries political risk and can expose internal divisions, particularly when the White House is pressing for escalation.

………

Even Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, a staunch pro-Israel Democrat from Florida, has flipped on the issue. She supported Trump’s strikes on Iran in June but is now publicly against unauthorized war with Iran. “Make the case to the American people. Make the case to Congress,” Wasserman-Schultz said in an interview on MSNBC. “We have not seen anything about an imminent threat that would necessitate a significant strike.”

Even Wasserman-Schultz, the poster child for fecklessness among the Democratic Party establishment (There is no Democratic Party establishment) in Congress is willing state a position.

If a Senator or Representative is unwilling to make a statement on this, they are unfit for office.

Ecch (Tweet) of the Day

One noteworthy thing about Iran's borders is, unlike much of the Middle East, they were not drawn for them.

The territory they hold today looks much the same as the realms they have held since antiquity. pic.twitter.com/JyRbKk7OJB

— 𝗠𝗮я𝗮𝘁 (@maratkaryan) June 27, 2025

This provides essential perspective.

Every other country in the Middle East, Near East, and North Africa is a creation of the colonial powers.

This necessarily effects their society and how they view themselves. 

The Spys Say, "Meh"

The initial report on the bunker buster attack on Iran has been leaked, and the reports appear to be rather underwhelming:

A preliminary classified U.S. report says the American bombing of three nuclear sites in Iran set back the country’s nuclear program by only a few months, according to officials familiar with the findings.

The strikes sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities but did not collapse their underground buildings, the officials said the early findings concluded.

Before the attack, U.S. intelligence agencies had said that if Iran tried to rush to making a bomb, it would take about three months. After the U.S. bombing run and days of attacks by the Israeli Air Force, the report by the Defense Intelligence Agency estimated that the program had been delayed, but by less than six months.

The report also said that much of Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium was moved before the strikes, which destroyed little of the nuclear material. Iran may have moved some of that to secret locations.

Needless to say, this has not made Donald Trump a happy camper:

As President Trump landed in the Netherlands on Tuesday for the annual meeting of NATO allies, he was desperate to hold together the fragile cease-fire between Israel and Iran, cursing and cajoling to make sure that history would remember him for bombing Iran’s nuclear sites over the weekend and brokering a peace deal days later.

But just hours after he landed, the leak of a new U.S. intelligence report cast doubt on his repeated claim that the American strikes had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programs. Mr. Trump started using the word “obliterated” before he received his first battle damage report, and since then, he has closely monitored which members of his administration have used the same language.

The report’s finding, while preliminary, was particularly damaging because it emerged from inside the Pentagon, which had carried out the strikes, and it concluded that the military action had only set Iran’s nuclear program back by a number of months.

Mr. Trump had been eager to celebrate his success at NATO and revel in the fact that he had conducted an attack that none of his predecessors had dared to launch. His view was backed up by Mark Rutte, the secretary general of the alliance, who wrote Mr. Trump a private message thanking him for his “decisive action” in Iran.

Needless to say, Mr. Rutte is a complete simp, and Trump had major butt-hurt

………

The upbeat demeanor crumbled once the intelligence reports started to leak out, with Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, blasting the findings as “flat-out wrong” and a “clear attempt to demean President Trump.”

Later that night, Mr. Trump appeared to dig in, posting on social media a series of quotes from administration officials, as well as the front page of one newspaper, using the word “obliterated” to describe the damage.

“Our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told CNN on Sunday, in one passage Mr. Trump posted. “Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target and worked perfectly.”

You know this sort of failure is not uncommon at your age, Donald.  You may want to talk to your physician about a prescription for Fukitol™.

Side effects may include losses in the mid-term election losses, impeachment, and having your vice-president invoking the the 25th amendment to remove you from power. 

If you experience any of these side effects, discontinue the medication, transfer your assets to a Swiss bank, and flee the country. 

I Love This

I do not where this came from, but whoever did this is s f%$#ing genius.