Gee, You Think?

Iran has struck a number of clandestine CIA sites in the Persian Gulf area recently, leading some to wonder if Russia is providing targeting information to Tehran. 

Gee, you think?

The US has been providing extensive real-time intelligence and extensive mission planning assistance to the Ukraine since the war there began.

Why would anyone think that Russia would not do the same themselves for their ally?

When US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Russian Foreign Secretary Sergey Lavrov on Thursday in Manila, on the margins of a summit of Southeast Asian nations, Moscow’s war on Ukraine was officially the top agenda item.

But the meeting between Rubio and Lavrov was held under the shadow of fresh reports suggesting that Russia might be playing a more active role than it has publicly acknowledged in Iran’s attacks on United States military sites in the Middle East.

Reports of Iran targeting sites belonging to the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) first emerged in the early days of the US and Israel’s war on Iran. Three days into the war, on March 3, The Washington Post reported that a CIA station in the US embassy in Riyadh had been targeted, according to two people familiar with the matter. On March 6, CNN reported, citing US intelligence sources, that Moscow had been helping Tehran locate US personnel and aircraft in the Gulf.

Now, more recently, the Reuters news agency on Wednesday reported that Iranian drone attacks on CIA facilities, specifically on the embassy in Saudi Arabia, had prompted US intelligence to investigate possible Russian involvement, suggesting that the strikes’ effectiveness and precision could suggest possible evidence of support.

I would make a number of points here, first I'm pretty sure that Iran's organic intelligence capabilities in the region are pretty good, and locating covert CIA facilities is probably well within their capabilities, and second, this is a foreseeable and measured response to similar American actions in the Ukraine.

You mess with the bull, you get the horns. 

 

 

Yeah, War is Bad, But

Sometimes it's tough to feel that way, particularly when things like an Iranian drone strike did significant damage to an Amazon Central Data Bahrain.

Not a fan or theocracies, but I am even less of a fan of kleptocratic monopolists like Amazon.

Iranian forces destroyed Amazon’s central data infrastructure in Bahrain, according to state-aligned media reports.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claims to have targeted and destroyed the American tech giant’s infrastructure with cruise missiles in response to an American attack that allegedly destroyed an under-construction nuclear site in Southern Iran on Monday, according to reports from Iran’s Fars News Agency. Amazon has not yet confirmed damage to its infrastructure in the region, though Bahraini authorities have acknowledged that air raid sirens were activated on Tuesday and said they intercepted a wave of Iranian strikes, though officials have not reported what, if any, material damage was sustained at this time.

You know, Bezos also has a yacht. According to this website, it was just north of Vanatu 5 days ago.

Gnarly

So, Trump has resumed airstrikes on Iran, and Iran has retaliated, killing at least 2 American soldiers operating air defense units in Jordan, along with strikes on Kuwaiti desalination and power plant.

From a tactical perspective, it appears that the Iranians have better targeting capabilities, as they are hitting specific military targets for tactical advantage, while the US is blowing up bruidges and drinking water infrastructure.  

Meanwhile, it looks like the international fossil fuel markets are getting skittish, and may be going into full panic mode if the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz continue.

We've lost this war, and the sooner that this is acknowledged by the PTB, the better. 

I Hope That This is Trolling

NEWS: A 10 foot tall participation trophy has been placed on the National Mall in honor of Donald Trump's "enthusiastic involvement" in the Iran war.

A group called Secret Handshake is taking credit. pic.twitter.com/EtagBVTEWH

— Aaron Parnas (@AaronParnas) July 13, 2026

Because if the group erecting an, "Iran War Participation Trophy," for Donald Trump is serious, it provides yet more evidence that Idiocracy was a documentary.

If this is a troll, it is a truly master full troll. 

Since I am an optimist, and since a number of media sites, including the Washington Post, have reported that this was a brilliant bit of mockery, I'll just leave it at, "Well played, motherf%$#ers."

Speaking of the Ongoing War

Trump has announced that the cease fire has ended and that the United States will resume its blockade on Iran and charge a 20% fee on all ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

I'm not sure what the legal justification is for charging such a fee, and in announcing the blockade he is announcing a resumption of war against Iran.  (It's why Kennedy called the blockade of Cuba during the Missile Crisis an, "Embargo.")

The fee that President Trump wants to charge ships going through the Strait of Hormuz would significantly increase the cost of transporting oil and other products through the crucial waterway, shipping operators and logistics experts said.

On Monday, Mr. Trump said the United States would charge a 20 percent fee on all cargo shipped through the strait, as a way to recover the cost of providing military protection to vessels using the waterway.

……… 

Mr. Trump did not explain exactly how the 20 percent fee would be calculated.

But if it were charged on the value of the cargo, it could more than double the cost of shipping oil through the strait.

Scores of ships have gone through the strait with Iran’s permission, taking routes close to the Iranian coast. On Monday, Mr. Trump said he was reinstating a U.S. naval blockade of ships that use Iranian ports.

……… 

In late June, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said: “No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway. That’s existing international law.” 

He forgets the most important internal law, "We don't care, we don't have to, we are the United States of America mother f%$#ers."

I Hate Reruns

So, Trump has declared that the cease fire has ended, and the US is launching strikes on Iran while Iran has responded in kind.  (Also, the US has revoked its waiver of sanctions on Iranian oil, which counts for little giving that the shooting war has started up again.)

I expect to see gas price increases returning shortly. 

 

Congress Found Some Cojones

Both houses just passed a joint war powers resolution resolution directing Trump to cease all hostilities against Iran.

I think that this is  second or third time in the 50+ year history of the War Powers Act that it has been used to end hostilities, rather than authorizing them.

The Senate voted to limit President Trump’s ability to conduct military operations against Iran without congressional authorization after four Republicans joined with Democrats in a stinging rebuke to Trump a week after he signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran.

The resolution passed by the Senate on Tuesday afternoon, in a 50-48 vote, directs the president to remove U.S. armed forces from hostilities against Iran unless explicitly authorized by Congress, other than to defend America, an ally or partner from “imminent attack.” The resolution, previously passed by the House, is nonbinding but marks the first time both chambers of Congress have passed the same measure to curb Trump’s power to wage the war against Iran.

………

The House passed the same resolution on June 3, in a 215-208 vote, with four Republicans joining Democrats in support.

I do not think that this will amount to a hill of beans, the Trump administration is not one to follow the law, and the constitutionality of a joint resolution is confusing.

Still, it does appear to be a shift in the political direction of the Republican Party. 

And The Tolls Are Coming Back

In news that would surprise no one, Iran has announced that they will be restarting transit fees Strait of Hormuz after 60 days.

Gee, color me completely unsurprised.

Iran has announced plans to introduce a system of maritime fees in the strait of Hormuz in two months, after the 60-day period of negotiation that has been triggered by the signing of the memorandum of understanding.

Tehran, claiming a historic victory over the US, said the strait was under its control and a European plan for a naval mission to escort ships though the strait would not be welcome. The US on Thursday lifted its blockade of Iran, and oil tankers began freely moving through the critical channel.

………

The talks, which are the first direct meeting between the two sides since they met in Islamabad on 12 April, will be focused on how to implement the 14-clause memorandum, including how to lift sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and ensure that commercial traffic starts to flow freely through the strait of Hormuz.

In a blow to those hoping the strait of Hormuz would be restored to full and permanent freedom of navigation, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator, said the strait needed to be managed, which would come at a cost. 

Trump is a loser.

Speaking of the Predictions of Nostra-Dumbass, a Deal Got Signed with Iran

I got it wrong when I said that there was no deal on the table as well.  There will be a signing a deal in Switzerland. (Apparently Trump signed the deal at Versailles, doubtless while eating cake.)

You gotta hand it to the Islamic Republic of Iran.  It took the Vietnamese 14 years to defeat us, it took the Afghans about 20 years, and it took the Iraqis about 6 years.

It took the Iranians about 16 weeks to kick our ass, as demonstrated by this 14 paragraph memorandum. 

A quick summary of the deal.

1. The end of hostilities, including in Lebanon, and this applies to Israel as well.
2.  Mutual respect of Iranian and US sovereignty.
3. A 60 day deadline this deal unless both sides agree to extend it.
4. The US will end its blockade and remove some troops in 30 days and Iran.
5. Iran will charge no transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz for the next 60 days.
6. Iran gets $300,000,000,000.00 in aid to rebuild. (Maybe not from the US)
7. The US will waive all sanctions immediately and rescind all sanctions as quickly as is practical including those by the UN Security Council and the IAEA.
8. Iran will not develop nuclear weapons.
9. An agreement to remain at the pre-hostilities status quo. 
10. The US agrees not to create or renew any sanctions.
11. The US agrees to release frozen and seized Iranian assets.
12. There will be some sort of arrangement to enforce the final deal.
13. Final status negotiations when paragraphs 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11 are all being implemented. 
14. This agreement shall be formally approved by the UN Security Council.

So, the US withdraws troops from the area, ends the blockade, releases Iranian assets, ends sanctions, arranges for Iran to get three hundred billion dollars, and leans on Israel to end its attacks on Lebanon.

In return, the Iranians agree not to develop nuclear weapons (which they have always said was the case) and not to charge transit fees on the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days. 

It's a loss for the United States, and even the New York Times Editorial Board noticed and took a break from polishing Trump's balls to say this.

I'll Believe It When I See It

So, we have yet another report of a deal to end the US-Iran War.

I won't believe it until the ink is dry.

Donald Trump has claimed a deal well over a dozen times in the past few months, so the White House's credibility is below that of the Tooth Fairy.

With a draft deal between the United States and Iran now on the table, speculation has been swirling about exactly what is in the agreement.

President Trump insisted on Friday that reports circulating about details of the proposed deal were incorrect. In a post on social media, he said the terms “Iran leaked” to the media “have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing.”

There were conflicting accounts of the deal in Iranian media, with one hard-line news outlet reporting terms more favorable to Iran and the state news agency providing a more measured description. On Friday, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said that a deal “has never been closer,” but added that “the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content.”

Much about the emerging deal remains murky, with both sides keen to frame it as a victory. What is known is that a “memorandum of understanding” between the two sides is under discussion.

I do not see any way that a deal that is acceptable to Iran could be cast as a victor for the United States, since the Iranian government, for very good reason, does not believe that the United States can be trusted to keep its end of the bargain.

As such, I think that any deal that would be signed would necessarily include a removal of sanctions, a repatriation of frozen Iranian assets from the US, and a redeployment of US forces out of the region.

I do not believe that (even with the horrible US press corps) that this could be sold as a victory, and Trump is terrified of being seen a loser.

Then again, what do I know. 

 

Meanwhile, In the Persian Gulf

So, it appears that an Iranian drone took down an Apache helicopter and Trump launched retaliatory attacks on Iran, including strikes on at least two reservoirs, (Yes this is a war crime according to black letter international law) and then Iran responded by striking US bases and US related infrastructure among Gulf nations.

A US Army helicopter gunship was apparently struck by an Iranian Shahed drone before going down near the Strait of Hormuz—but it’s unclear whether the one-way attack drone was deliberately aimed or achieved more of a lucky accidental strike.

Axios correspondent Barak Ravid first reported an unnamed US government official’s comments that an Iranian drone had hit the US Army AH-64 Apache helicopter before the latter went down on June 8. The New York Times later confirmed that reporting through more anonymous US officials, including one official who said US military investigators were still evaluating whether the Iranian drone strike on the helicopter was intentional or accidental.

………

The basic models of Iranian Shahed drones rely on GPS satellite guidance and preprogrammed coordinates to strike stationary targets from long range and are not usually designed to track and strike moving targets, said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank based in Washington, DC, in an interview with The New York Times. But he suggested that Iran may have received newer Russian-modified Shahed drones that can be remotely operated to strike targets in motion.

Whatever the case, the result is that an Iranian drone that usually costs about $35,000 managed to take down a US Army helicopter with a price tag of $25 million. The only silver lining for the US military was its successful rescue of both helicopter crew members from the water due to the unprecedented use of a drone boat.

………

Trump was initially inclined to shrug off the Apache helicopter’s downing after the pilots were rescued, according to The Wall Street Journal. But the president apparently changed his mind during a White House briefing when both Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine “recommended military action” and shared more details about the Iranian Shahed drone striking the US helicopter.

The strikes from US fighter jets targeted Iranian air defense, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites near the Strait of Hormuz, according to the US Central Command press release. But Iran’s state broadcaster claimed the US military strikes also damaged water tanks and cut off the water supply for at least 20,000 people in Hormozgan province.

Iran also retaliated by launching yet another round of Iranian missile and drone attacks against Gulf countries such as Bahrain and Kuwait, along with Jordan, according to The New York Times. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, an Iranian paramilitary force, said it had targeted US bases in the region, including the US Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain, while claiming to shoot down yet another US MQ-9 Reaper drone.

More on the strikes on the reservoirs: (Also see the mealy mouthed confirmation from what Atrios calls that f%$#ing paper)

The United States and Iran engaged in some of the most intense fighting overnight since all-out hostilities in the ongoing US‑Israeli war on Iran were halted with a Pakistan‑mediated temporary ceasefire on April 8.

A comprehensive peace agreement remains elusive as Iran and the US have exchanged a series of proposals and counterproposals in the weeks since that pause. After a string of smaller escalations, however, the US struck targets in Iran following the downing of a US Apache helicopter close to the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, and Iran retaliated by hitting US military bases in the Gulf.

The US military said it targeted communications and radar facilities. Iranian officials, however, said civilian infrastructure was also damaged, including two water reservoirs.

If correct, this is the first reported strike on civilian infrastructure in Iran in several weeks, but it comes at a time when Iran is facing a severe water shortage.

Yeah, US military has forsworn attacks on civilian infrastructure for a few weeks, what sweethearts.

And Trump provides yet more evidence that he's senile or profoundly stupid:

U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday said he was "shocked" that Iran attacked neighboring Gulf states in retaliation to U.S. and Israeli strikes, insisting that nobody could have predicted such a response.

"They weren't supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East. So they hit Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait. Nobody expected that. We were shocked," Trump said at a White House event.

He doubled down hours later, stating that "the UAE is like the banker for Iran. Qatar, they are neighbors and got along okay. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain. No expert would say that's gonna happen. It's not a question of 'gee should you have known' - and if we did, big deal. We have to do what we have to do," he said in the Oval Office.

In reality, many experts have long warned that Iran was willing and prepared to strike these countries. Iran itself further warned explicitly that neighboring states hosting U.S. military bases could be targeted as part of its deterrence strategy.

I wonder how much longer they can to maintain this façade, because world inventories of oil and other distillates have fallen off of a cliff.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to open tomorrow, these inventories would take about 6 weeks to see new oil.

I honestly expect to see 1973-style gas lines in the United States.

Today in Unbelievably Crappy OpSec

I have done a Google reverse image search, and this image, and there are literally dozens of copies of this floating around the web.

We know the size of the boom, the size of the F-16, and the size of Palm Jumeirah precisely.

This means that the location of this shot can be determined with a big of basic map work and trigonometry to well within 10 meters.

Not a good look, unless, of course, you are a member of the IRGC. 

Ecch (Tweet) of the Day

LMAOOO pic.twitter.com/6tHT922FK1

— VolgaLad (@cym27s) June 3, 2026

Very dark humor, but I like dark humor.

Glad I Own a Hybrid

Oil reserves are falling off a cliff.

Assuming no change to the current state of affairs, it looks like we could move from higher prices to actual shortages and gas lines by year's end. 

An underappreciated surplus of crude oil, sloshing around storage tanks and aboard ships, cushioned the global economy when the Persian Gulf closed 2½ months ago.

That excess supply is now dwindling at a record pace, with oil executives and analysts predicting that a harsh reckoning is set to upend the relative calm in energy markets. Acute shortages of key fuels and soaring prices could emerge within weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut.

This ain't gonna end well.

Decimated, Huh?

Well, if you use the original definition of decimated, to remove ⅒, that appears to be what the US military has done according to  a report from the The New York Times.

The Trump administration’s public portrayal of a shattered Iranian military is sharply at odds with what U.S. intelligence agencies are telling policymakers behind closed doors, according to classified assessments from early this month that show Iran has regained access to most of its missile sites, launchers and underground facilities.

Most alarming to some senior officials is evidence that Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the Strait of Hormuz, which could threaten American warships and oil tankers transiting the narrow waterway. 

Yep, that sounds like the original definition of that word.

Here is the money quote, "The findings underscore the dilemma Mr. Trump would face if the fragile month-old cease-fire in the conflict collapses and full-scale fighting resumes. The U.S. military has already depleted its stocks of many critical munitions, including Tomahawk cruise missiles, Patriot interceptor missiles, and Precision Strike and ATACMS ground-based missiles, and yet the intelligence suggests that Iran retains considerable military capability, including around the vital Strait of Hormuz."  

Not to worry though, I'm sure that Army Detachment Steiner will be able to sort things out.

I Was Wrong

While shaky, it appears that the US — Iran cease fire has not collapsed in 3 days, as I had predicted.

It's lasted twice that so far, and I now think that it might last almost as long as Liz Truss's tenure as UK Prime Minister.

Or not. 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 

I Give it 3 Days

So, Trump has announced a 2 week cease fire with Iran.

That and $31.87 will get you a trenta vanilla sweet cream cold brew with two pumps of vanilla, three pumps of caramel syrup, two pumps of cinnamon dolce syrup, two pumps of hazelnut, two pumps of toffee nut syrup, two pumps of mocha, two pumps of white mocha, two pumps of pumpkin sauce, three pumps of maple pecan syrup, and five shots of espresso at Starbucks.

Otherwise, I see it as worthless.

Over the period of less than a year, the US and Israel have launched strikes while negotiations were ongoing.

It's telling that Iran's 10 point plan in response increases their demands.

While a part of this may be gamesmanship, the Iranian's clearly feel that they have the upper hand.

Just 90 minutes before President Donald Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline to “wipe out a whole civilization” with massive strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and bridges, he granted a two-week extension for diplomacy to continue.

"Granted"?  That's an interesting way of describing TACO Trump chickening out once again.

………

Trump said his ceasefire decision was in response to an appeal from Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military chief Gen. Asim Munir, whose government has been serving as mediator between the United States and Iran.

………

After Trump’s announcement, a statement posted by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, which he attributed to the Supreme National Security Council, said it too was responding to Pakistan’s request and Trump’s “acceptance of the general Framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal for negotiations.”

………

In the 10-point proposal Trump said was a basis for negotiations, Iran demanded a permanent end to the war as well as an end to any attacks against the “Axis of Resistance,” as it calls its proxy groups in the region, including Hezbollah. According to a government statement reported by Iranian media late Tuesday, demands also included establishment of a formal protocol for passage through the Strait of Hormuz “that ensures an oversight role for Iran.”

 And Iran's counter proposal?

1. The U.S. must fundamentally commit to guaranteeing non-aggression.
2. Continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz.
3. Acceptance that Iran can enrich uranium for its nuclear program.
4. Removal of all primary sanctions on Iran.
5. Removal of all secondary sanctions against foreign entities that do business with Iranian institutions.
6. End of all United Security Council resolutions targeting Iran.
7. End of all International Atomic Energy Agency resolutions on Iran’s nuclear program.
8. Compensation payment to Iran for war damage.
9. Withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the region.
10. Cease-fire on all fronts, including Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. 

This does not sound to me like a country that has been cowed into submission. 

The biggest problem with any negotiations is that the US in general, and Trump in particular, have shown themselves to be untrustworthy negotiating partners.

I rather expect the United States to violate the cease fire in the next few days.  It's kind of our thing. 

Headline of the Day

When Pete Hegseth Says “Lethality” He’s Talking About Killing Iranian School Girls

—Dean Baker, stating the obvious about what it means when SecDef Hegseth brags that our military not be constrained by "Woke" rules of engagement.

I’m going to give our “Secretary of War” a little credit. I will assume that even someone as openly bloodthirsty as Hegseth would not deliberately blow up a school building filled with little girls. But this tragic accident, that led to the death of at least 165 Iranian girls between the ages of 7 and 12, was the direct result of Hegseth’s policy.

The main point of the “woke” rules of engagement that Hegseth has constantly derided, and told the military to ignore, is to prevent tragic accidents like the bombing of a girls’ school in the middle of the day. The rules are designed to try to minimize civilian casualties. 

You give Hegseth more credit than I would.  I think that the Trump administration likes the idea of killing civilian noncombatants. 

We Are So Screwed

One of the side effects of the increasing commerce in liquefied natural gas is the production of uelium.

When you cool down the gas, the helium remains a gas, and you can collect it and use it for things like MRI machines and silicon chip manufacture.

Among the strikes made by Iran in retaliation for attacks on its South Pars natural gas facilities, Iran struck the major helium production at Ras Laffan in Qatar, which looks to have the effect of taking 30% of world helium supplies offline.

Days after the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow waterway through which roughly one fifth of the world’s oil passes—closed. While oil has dominated headlines, a third of the world’s commercial helium comes from Qatar and has also been cut off.

Often associated with party balloons, helium is indispensable to magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scanners, aerospace and the manufacture of microchips for artificial intelligence. With the strait closed, the disruption of the global helium supply chain could have ripple effects that might last for months and affect the most advanced technologies on Earth.

While there is a decent supply and stockpile out there, it is almost certain that helium providers will shortly announce a "Force majeur," and raise prices on existing contracts immediately.

Thanks, Donnie.

H/t PZ Meyers.

TACO for Profit

Is this the best timed trade of 2026?

At 6:50 AM ET today, $1.5 BILLION in notional value worth of S&P 500 futures contracts were bought.

This trade was so large it sent the entire index +0.3% higher that minute.

Then, 14 minutes later at 7:04 AM ET, President Trump announced… pic.twitter.com/zFdZ1sQxeq

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 23, 2026

Roll Tape!

So, Donald Trump announced a unilateral suspension of some strikes on Iran, because Trump Always Chickens Out.

I do not expect Iran to reciprocate, because they (IMHO correctly) believe that this is merely a ploy by the Americans to time for the next round of attacks.

I think that Trump's announcement on social media that there have been, "Very good and productive conversations," probably has another motivation, personal profit.

You see, minutes before he posted it, someone made billions of dollars in futures trades, on the S&P 500 going up and oil prices falling.

It seems that someone was trading on this information, and my guess is that their name rhymes with Ronald Lon Rump. 

Unusually large futures trades placed minutes before a major geopolitical announcement have sparked allegations of potential insider trading, after market participants pointed to timing and scale that appeared closely aligned with U.S. policy developments.

According to data shared by the market-tracking account unusual_whales, approximately $1.5 billion in S&P 500 futures contracts were purchased while roughly $192 million in oil futures were sold just five minutes before President Donald Trump announced a halt to attacks on Iran.

The trades were reportedly four to six times larger than typical order sizes observed at that time.

The sequence of events has raised questions over whether the trades were informed by non-public information, given the immediate market reaction that followed.

What will the SEC do about these suspicious trades? 

I think that they will take a cue from Inspector Renault.

One of these days,  I need to watch Casablanca in one sitting.

I've seen all of it, but not all at once.