25 July 2024

There Is Evil, There Is Horrific, There Is Demonic, and Then There Is ………

Amazon

Jeff Bezos' den of evil is so evil that they have been forced to account for the fact that will have injured, killed or otherwise driven off so many workers that they will be short on staff in their warehouses.

Seriously, they are running out employees because they are breaking too many of them.

Whiskey tango foxtrot?  (Yeah, I know, it's from 2022, but it's new to me)

Amazon is facing a looming crisis: It could run out of people to hire in its US warehouses by 2024, according to leaked Amazon internal research from mid-2021 that Recode reviewed. If that happens, the online retailer’s service quality and growth plans could be at risk, and its e-commerce dominance along with it.

Raising wages and increasing warehouse automation are two of the six “levers” Amazon could pull to delay this labor crisis by a few years, but only a series of sweeping changes to how the company does business and manages its employees will significantly alter the timeline, Amazon staff predicted.

“If we continue business as usual, Amazon will deplete the available labor supply in the US network by 2024,” the research, which hasn’t previously been reported, says.

The report warned that Amazon’s labor crisis was especially imminent in a few locales, with internal models showing that the company was expected to exhaust its entire available labor pool in the Phoenix, Arizona, metro area by the end of 2021, and in the Inland Empire region of California, roughly 60 miles east of Los Angeles, by the end of 2022. Amazon’s internal report calculated the available pool of workers based on characteristics like income levels and a household’s proximity to current or planned Amazon facilities; the pool does not include the entire US adult population.

Amazon spokesperson Rena Lunak didn’t refute the contents of the internal report Recode obtained but declined to comment on it.

………

The internal research also identified the regions surrounding Memphis, Tennessee, and Wilmington, Delaware, as areas where Amazon was on the cusp of exhausting local warehouse labor availability. Amazon’s models used for this internal research were 94 percent accurate in predicting the US geographies where Amazon was significantly understaffed in the lead-up to the Amazon Prime Day shopping event in June 2021, the report noted, which contributed to delivery delays for customers in those markets. The warnings about Amazon’s labor supply shortages indicate that in at least some markets, Amazon shipments could face more severe delays in the future.

Amazon's turnover rate is well over 100% a year, (!) more than double that of similar companies in the same industries.

The attrition is so high because Amazon believes that its "Partners" are disposable are easily replaced, and so treat their employees like sh%$.

Just don't buy Amazon.  They are evil.

Ecch (Tweet) of the Day

This, of course a parody account, and it's incredibly dark, and incredibly hilarious, or at least it is for me.

This is dark though.

Time to Sister Souljah a Fat-Ass White Billionaire


Bernie wants a word

OK, I am making a culture reference that is 32 f%$#ing years  old, so for any reader(s) who are too young to remember, I am referring to a, "Sister Souljah moment," which was Bill Clinton attacked  at a speech that he delivered at a Rainbow Coalition which attacked her when she made some rather inflammatory comments in the context of the Rodney King riots.

This was a conscious decision by the Bill Clinton campaign, which had decided to pick a fight with some (ANY!) African American figure in an appeal to centrists.  (Actually an appeal to racists)

Sister Souljah is an African American rapper, Author, activist, producer and poet.

So, on to the fat-ass white billionaire, Reid Hoffman, founder of LinkedIn, who has donated $10 million to the Harris campaign and then demanded that Lina Khan be fired.

So, what can be done about this nakedly corrupt self-absorbed mother f%$#er beyond calling him a self-absorbed mother f%$#er?

Well, I'm kind of a glass half full guy on this, and I would say that were Harris and surrogates to condemn him by name, this would be a good thing.

If they were to do so, they would be signaling to their base that they are not beholden to the Silly Con Valley tech bros, whose reputation has lost much of its luster lately. 

One of the concerns about Harris is that she is too deferential to the Tech Bros, and going after one of them by name would both good policy and good politics for Harris.

By way context, Reid Hoffman, while arguably the least awful human being in the PayPal Mafia, (Low f%$#ing bar) is a contemptible human being.

Among other things he has extolled monopoly power, he calls it, "Dominance," because once they have crushed all the competition by hook and crook, they can do good things.

Here's a clue for everyone, if a company breaks the law and discriminates as a start up, they will do so as a unicorn, and as a monopoly.  Evil gets baked in, and the formation of a monopoly or an oligopoly demands evil people with contempt for the law.

Matt Stoller has his number.  (At link above)

As I’ve written, for the last few weeks, there has been a campaign among big business advocates to eliminate the new trade, antitrust, and labor policies put in place over the last five years or so. When Kamala Harris took over the Democratic nomination from Joe Biden, that campaign ramped up.

A few days ago, billionaire LinkedIn founder Reid Hoffman gave $10 million to the Kamala Harris effort, and promised a lot more. Hoffman is a Silicon Valley titan, part of the “PayPal mafia” that includes Peter Thiel and Elon Musk, though Hoffman sits on the Democratic side of the aisle. This morning, Hoffman went on CNN and issued demands. Harris must end Biden’s tariff and antitrust regimes, he said, and fire Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan.………

The FTC is investigating Microsoft.  Hoffman is a member of Microsoft's board of directors.

Hmmm.

………

………

Very few people in official Washington have even noticed, beyond the usual suspects of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren:

………

So far, Hoffman’s demand has been met with disinterest from the political press and a muted response from labor and progressive groups, who have mostly endorsed Harris and are enthusiastically celebrating her candidacy. There are a few exceptions. Senator Bernie Sanders chimed in angrily about Hoffman’s demand, and Senator Elizabeth Warren offered an endorsement of Khan. A pharmacist group also weighed in, and there will likely be more statements as the news filters through a very confused media environment, as Khan has a lot of fans (including in tech, she’s speaking at YCombinator today to a packed room).

Also, Hoffman has written about the juxtaposition of business and politics, where he shows himself to be the glioblastoma of the body politic:

………

Hoffman laid out his political philosophy in 2018 in what seems like a business book, one titled Blitzscaling: The Lightning-Fast Path to Building Massively Valuable Companies. In it, Hoffman analyzed the rise of companies like Uber, Google, Microsoft, AirBNB, Amazon, Apple, and so forth, argued that monopolization through cheap capital and lawbreaking is socially beneficial, and that such firms should be admired for their mergers and acquisitions strategies and network effects that thwart rivals. When looking at which firms to laud, Hoffman knew to avoid using the term ‘monopoly,’ substituting the word ‘dominant,’ which he puts in his book 29 times as a positive affirmation.

Hoffman might seem to be simply expounding about commerce, but in fact he is oriented around politics. Hoffman believes the goal of any entrepreneur is to ignore everything except growing so quickly that a business elevates itself to sovereign levels of global power. He even uses the terms “Nation” and “City” to describe such a corporation. Once there, they must become good corporate citizens. “If you previously ignored issues such as diversity, legal compliance, or social justice,” he writes, “you need to understand that all eyes are now on you, and you'll be expected to behave as a responsible citizen and role model.”

Such a statement is a rebuke of some basic elements of our social order. After all, what does it mean to ignore issues such as “legal compliance” until you’ve built dominant market power? Well, that’s as close as you can get to saying that breaking the law to form a dominant corporation is virtuous. There’s an expression that behind every great fortune is a crime and Hoffman is basically saying that yes, that’s true, except such crimes are good if they are paired with diversity mandates, statements about social justice, and legal compliance regimes.

………

The only upside here is that Hoffman is being very public, aggressive, and explicit about his demands. And he’s going to corner Harris until she kisses the ring, or refuses to do so. From his perspective, he’s not donating $10 million, he’s making a purchase. Or so he thinks. Now it’s up to Harris to make the choice. Does she have Silicon Valley donors, or Silicon Valley owners?

Seriously, going after Hoffman is a no lose proposition, so do it.

Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This weeks economic data is better, though a bit confusing.

On the unemployment claims front, the news is OK, 235,000 claims, about 2,000 better than estimates, with continuing claims flat.

Meanwhile, GDP growth beat estimates, with a 2.8% annual rate, well above the 2.0% predictions, driven largely by increases in the orders of big ticket items.

Still, the job market seems to be weakening.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

24 July 2024

Forget It Jake, It’s Texas

One might think that after a number of very public sexual harrassment cases popping up in the Texas state senate, that reforms to prevent this have been put in place.

You could think that, but you would be wrong:

Lila had been working late again. Her ballet flats pattered on the terrazzo floors of the Texas Capitol as she walked through the bowels of the building, up the stairs, and out its heavy, carved oak doors. Across the expansive south lawn, a few blocks away, she joined some fellow Senate interns who were enjoying the evening at a bustling rooftop bar. She looked forward to relaxing with Moscow mules and tacos under the glow of the string lights overhead. It was a beautiful March evening—until it wasn’t. 

A 21-year-old college senior, Lila worked for state senator José Menéndez, a San Antonio Democrat. Soon after sitting down with her friends, she started venting about the months of touching, after-hours texts, and questions about her dating life that she had been facing from the lawmaker’s 52-year-old chief of staff, Thomas “Tomas” Larralde. As she talked, her phone buzzed on the sticky high-top table. Larralde had sent an incoherent message to the office group chat—which included the district director and the senator. It appeared that Larralde, a brash and divisive figure, was drunk. If he’d spoken the jumbled words, Lila imagined they would’ve been slurred.

Someone else in the chat responded to ask if he was okay. Larralde didn’t reply, but five minutes later he sent a private message to Lila (who asked that we not use her real name, out of fear of retaliation). “How’s your night,” he texted. 

“Pretty good! Nothing too crazy, yours?” Lila responded.

“I’ve been drinking,” he said. “So on a scale of 1 to 10. It’s a 5.”

As her phone lit up, the other interns looked on in horror at the behavior they were witnessing in real time. “I remember showing my friends,” Lila told Texas Monthly. “I was like, ‘This is exactly what I was talking about!’ ” 

………

Menéndez decided to fire his chief of staff. “I was like, ‘Okay, this guy’s gone,’ ” he said. “It took less than twenty-four hours to get rid of him.”

Others in the Capitol, however, told Texas Monthly that he had known of Larralde’s misconduct for more than five years. By the time Lila came forward, three current and former statehouse employees had reported to Menéndez what they described as Larralde’s demeaning and sexist behavior, during incidents starting in 2015, Texas Monthly found. One former staffer said she repeatedly told the senator that she saw Larralde touch female colleagues inappropriately and also complained to Menéndez about the chief of staff’s lewd jokes. Another former staffer said she described Larralde’s conduct to Menéndez as flirtatious, creepy, and belittling. One former lawmaker told reporters she’d called out Larralde’s use of sexist language, and Menéndez had apologized for it. 

………

The complaints Menéndez received were about behavior consistent with the examples of sexual harassment detailed in the Senate’s policy, including “sexually oriented comments, jokes, or gestures,” “messages that are sexually suggestive, or in any manner demeaning, intimidating, or insulting,” “unwelcome physical contact,” and “repeatedly asking a person to socialize during off-duty hours when the person has said no or has indicated that he or she is not interested.” Other staffers said they left Menéndez’s office in part because they didn’t feel comfortable working with a man they described as misogynistic.

………

Menéndez’s failure to view these complaints as reports of sexual harassment is emblematic of breakdowns in the enforcement of the Senate’s sexual harassment policy, which was updated in 2018 and trumpeted as a deterrent to misconduct in the Capitol. In practice, the new policy has functioned to protect individual senators accused of misbehavior and the reputation of the institution rather than the women who work there.

Lila had made a verbal complaint to a supervisor, as instructed in the policy, but there are no public records of her complaint or of any investigation into allegations of sexual harassment by Larralde, according to Spaw, who serves as the custodian of all Senate records. Menéndez confirmed to Texas Monthly that at his direction Larralde signed a nondisclosure agreement barring him from discussing the circumstances of his termination. Then, days after Larralde was fired, Lila’s internship coordinator called her and asked her to sign a document that Lila understood would have given the internship program “cover” by outlining steps it had taken to handle the situation. Lila never signed anything. “I kept saying, ‘No, I don’t want to sign it, I don’t feel comfortable signing it,’ ” Lila told Texas Monthly. “I felt very alone and taken advantage of. I don’t have an attorney.” 

………

It would be easy to see Larralde’s case as an isolated incident—and one that was eventually solved with his firing. Most Texas lawmakers and their staffers have never been publicly accused of sexual harassment. But in the macho culture of the Capitol, where some legislators have famously watched porn on iPads on the Senate floor and forcibly kissed journalists, Lila’s experience is hardly unique, and harassment remains widespread. During nearly twelve months of reporting and more than a hundred hours of interviews with current and former elected officials, legislative staffers, interns, and lobbyists, Texas Monthly reporters learned about new sexual-misconduct allegations against Senator Borris Miles, a Democrat from Houston; Senator Charles Schwertner, a Republican from Georgetown; and former senator Carlos Uresti, a Democrat from San Antonio. (None of the three responded to multiple interview requests or to specific questions we sent them about the allegations.) We also spoke with the woman at the center of a headline-grabbing 2018 Title IX complaint against Schwertner. She agreed to her first-ever interview about a lewd photo and text messages she says she received from the senator (which he has denied sending), in part because of lingering frustrations she felt over the investigation he thwarted by refusing to cooperate.

 ………

The Senate’s revised policy removed a clear instruction that anyone with knowledge of sexual harassment should report it directly to human resources and the secretary of the Senate. It now says employees may report misconduct to their supervisor or chief of staff or submit an internal complaint to the HR director or the Senate secretary. In practice, Texas Monthly has found, only reports made to the latter two individuals are treated as “official complaints” that trigger an immediate investigation, with the probe to be handled by the director of human resources and impartial attorneys. The 31 senators are given leeway to handle sexual harassment complaints reported to supervisors within their offices as they see fit. The policy does not require that senators keep any record of complaints, investigate those complaints, report those complaints to any central office in the Senate, or hold anyone accountable for misconduct.

………

When asked why his office didn’t turn over records of complaints, Patrick’s press secretary, Steven Aranyi, wrote, “Our office released no records because there are no records to release, as no complaints of sexual harassment have been filed with Lt. Gov. Patrick’s office.” In a statement to Texas Monthly, Spaw, who did not respond to multiple interview requests but answered some written questions, acknowledged that she knew about Lila’s case. She wrote that she never “received and neither has Senate Human Resources received an official complaint regarding Senator Menendez’s office. It is my understanding that, as provided in the Senate policy, a matter was reported to and handled and resolved by the Senator, both expeditiously and appropriately.”

Spaw added that “no official sexual harassment complaints have been filed in the Senate since 2001,” an idea that Lisa Banks, an employment attorney and founding partner at D.C.-based law firm Katz Banks Kumin, called “utterly preposterous.” Banks represented Christine Blasey Ford when she testified to the U.S. Senate judiciary committee that Supreme Court justice Brett Kavanaugh had sexually assaulted her when they were high school students.

“The fact that they say that shows they have a problem,” she said. “The clear inference is they’re making an effort to not have anything in writing, to cover themselves.”

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

In the case of the Texas state senate, the answer would be no one at all.

We Are F%$#ed

Here is an interesting anthropogenic climate change data point, July 21, this Sunday, was the hottest day ever recorded on the planet Earth.

Admittedly, records only go back a few hundred years, but it isn't even August:

On Sunday, the Earth sizzled to the hottest day ever measured by humans, yet another heat record shattered in the past couple of years, according to the European climate service Copernicus on Tuesday.

Copernicus’ preliminary data shows that the global average temperature Sunday was 17.09 degrees Celsius (62.76 degrees Fahrenheit), beating the record set just last year on July 6, 2023 by .01 degrees Celsius (.02 degrees Fahrenheit). Both Sunday’s mark and last year’s record obliterate the previous record of 16.8 degrees Celsius (62.24 degrees Fahrenheit), which itself was only a few years old, set in 2016.

………

“What is truly staggering is how large the difference is between the temperature of the last 13 months and the previous temperature records,” Copernius Director Carlo Buontempo said in a statement. “We are now in truly uncharted territory and as the climate keeps warming, we are bound to see new records being broken in future months and years.”

While 2024 has been extremely warm, what kicked Sunday into new territory was a way toastier than usual Antarctic winter, according to Copernicus. The same thing was happening on the southern continent last year when the record was set in early July.

But it wasn’t just a warmer Antarctica on Sunday. Interior California baked with triple digit heat Fahrenheit, complicating more than two dozen fires in the U.S. West. At the same time, Europe sweltered through its own deadly heat wave.

“It’s certainly a worrying sign coming on the heels of 13 straight record-setting months,” said Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, who now estimates there’s a 92% chance that 2024 will beat 2023 as the warmest year on record.

While 2024 has been extremely warm, what kicked Sunday into new territory was a way toastier than usual Antarctic winter, according to Copernicus. The same thing was happening on the southern continent last year when the record was set in early July.

But it wasn’t just a warmer Antarctica on Sunday. Interior California baked with triple digit heat Fahrenheit, complicating more than two dozen fires in the U.S. West. At the same time, Europe sweltered through its own deadly heat wave.

“It’s certainly a worrying sign coming on the heels of 13 straight record-setting months,” said Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, who now estimates there’s a 92% chance that 2024 will beat 2023 as the warmest year on record.

This is real end of the world stuff.

I may not see that, I'm old, but my kids almost certainly will.

All because we cannot push back against the belief that, "The most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone," to quote (Not) John Maynard Keynes.

When the Cops are Crooks

In Missouri, judge just ruled that a man whose conviction was overturned and directed that he be releases, but the state attorney general has ignored the order, because he doesn't want to.

This is not an an injunction pending an appeal, it's just the AG refusing a judge's order.

Maybe the judge should frog march Attorney General Andrew Bailey out of his office in handcuffs.

That should get his attention:

For the second time in weeks, a Missouri prison has ignored a court order to release an inmate whose murder conviction was overturned. Just as in the case of Sandra Hemme, actions by the state’s attorney general are keeping Christopher Dunn locked up.

St. Louis Circuit Judge Jason Sengheiser on Monday tossed out Dunn’s conviction for a 1990 killing. Dunn, 52, has spent 33 years behind bars, and he remained Tuesday at the state prison in Licking. “The State of Missouri shall immediately discharge Christopher Dunn from its custody,” Sengheiser’s ruling states.

Dunn wasn’t released after his conviction was overturned because Republican Attorney General Andrew Bailey appealed the judge’s ruling, “and we’re awaiting the outcome of that legal action,” Missouri Department of Corrections spokeswoman Karen Pojmann said in an email Tuesday.

The decision to keep Dunn incarcerated puzzled St. Louis Circuit Attorney Gabe Gore, whose office investigated his case and determined he was wrongfully convicted, prompting a May hearing before Sengheiser.

………

Dunn’s situation is similar to what happened to Hemme, 64, who spent 43 years in prison for the fatal stabbing of a woman in St. Joseph in 1980. A judge on June 14 cited evidence of “actual innocence” and overturned her conviction. She had been the longest-held wrongly incarcerated woman known in the U.S., according to the Midwest Innocence Project, which worked to free Hemme and Dunn.

But appeals by Bailey — all the way up to the Missouri Supreme Court — kept Hemme imprisoned at the Chillicothe Correctional Center. During a court hearing Friday, Judge Ryan Horsman said that if Hemme wasn’t released within hours, Bailey himself would have to appear in court with contempt of court on the table. She was released later that day.

(emphasis mine)

The judge also scolded Bailey’s office for calling the Chillicothe warden and telling prison officials not to release Hemme after he ordered her to be freed on her own recognizance. It wasn’t clear if the attorney general’s office similarly called prison officials at the prison where Dunn is housed.

(emphasis mine)
………

A Missouri law adopted in 2021 lets prosecutors request hearings when they see evidence of a wrongful conviction. Although Bailey’s office is not required to oppose such efforts, he also did so at a hearing for Lamar Johnson, who spent 28 years in prison for murder. Another St. Louis judge ruled in February 2023 that Johnson was wrongfully convicted, and he was freed.

Another hearing begins Aug. 21 for death row inmate Marcellus Williams. Bailey’s office is opposing the challenge to Williams’ conviction, too.

This is is just political posturing, and it should be criminal.

Baily is a Republican, of course, so keeping innocent people in jail so that he can run for Governor is par for the course.

My First (and Last) Post on the Veepstakes


The usual suspects

We are seeing dozens of reports of different people being vetted as a potential VP for likely Democratic Party Presidential nominee Kamala Harris.

But for the fact that Alexandria Ocasio Cortez turns 35 in October, and so could be Harris' running mate, (not gonna happen) none of the usual suspects inspire me one way or the other on an ideological level.

My guess is that she and the Democratic Party establishment (There is no Democratic Party establishment) will go with an "safe" choice who will turn out to be a net liability.  (Think Tim Kaine or Joe Lieberman)

I don't expect to be pleased by her choice, and I sure that once they are announced, I will complain. 

It's in my nature.


23 July 2024

Billionaire Benighted Blustering Blueprint Blocked

Remember when a bunch of tech bros bought up thousands of acres in rural California with the idea of creating a modern, "Galt's Gulch," where it would just be them and the hired help?

Not gonna happen.   It has permanently been put on hold, because it will actually cost the surrounding county millions and threaten the water supply.

I'm sure that the tech billionaires are shocked.  Normally, they get subsidies for this sort of crap, but it appears that the government in Solano County is more sensible than I would have anticipated:

Days after a Solano County report slammed a plan backed by Silicon Valley billionaires to build a utopian new city from scratch near Fairfield, the company behind the “California Forever” project has scrapped the ballot initiative it was to put to county voters in November.

The report released late last week by Solano County said the proposed new city of 50,000 — possibly up to 400,000 decades from now — would likely cost the county billions of dollars and create substantial annual financial deficits, while slashing agricultural production, damaging climate-change resilience and potentially threatening local water supplies. The project, according to the report, “may not be financially feasible.”

It also did not help that the organizers of this concept sued farmers who refused to sell out, alleging collusion, for having the temerity of not giving the Silly Con Valley bros what they wanted.

………

County supervisors on Tuesday were set to consider the report, then vote on whether to approve California Forever’s contentious plan to rezone 17,500 acres of farmland for the city or let voters decide in November.

Instead, California Forever, led by CEO Jan Sramek, will withdraw the ballot measure — approved last month for the November election — and seek approval to amend the county’s general plan and zoning through typical county processes, California Forever said in a website update Monday morning.

………

California Forever, which spent more than $800 million buying more than 60,000 acres of mostly agricultural land near Fairfield, earlier last week issued its own study claiming the new city would create billions of dollars in economic activity and tens of thousands of jobs for the county. Marketing materials have depicted utopian scenes of a Mediterranean-style community, with walkable neighborhoods and a mix of businesses from retail shops to technology company offices.

The proposal is funded by billionaire venture capitalists Marc Andreessen and Michael Moritz, LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman and businesswoman Laurene Powell Jobs. It’s been embroiled in controversy since its real estate arm, Flannery Associates, sued holdout landowners for $510 million, claiming they conspired out of “endless greed” to inflate prices.

………

The county’s report, issued July 18, said infrastructure such as roads for the project and public facilities like schools and parks, plus related expenses, would cost an estimated $6.4 billion for the first phase of development and nearly $50 billion to complete the new city.

The report said costs to the county and the local fire-protection district would outstrip revenues, leading to millions of dollars in deficits every year. The now-withdrawn California initiative gave no clear indication of where the money would come from.

Spoiler, the money would come from the ordinary tax payers, you know the peons who the titans of bullsh%$ expect to support them, because they managed to scam their way into wealth.

They sound an awful lot like sports team owners promising that the subsidies would pay for themselves.

Actually, this sounds EXACTLY like sports team owners promising that the subsidies would pay for themselves.

BTW, just in case you are wondering, the tech bros were also selling this as a way to avoid the inconvenience of democracy:

………

Yet there’s potentially a more sinister angle. California Forever aligns suspiciously with a cultish dystopian movement to build so-called “network statesprivate zones where tech zillionaires can abandon democratic society to live under the rule of their own private micro governments. The secret plot to assemble vast swaths of land and build a new city fits a pattern of wealthy Silicon Valley types attempting to construct similar enclaves around the globe. San Francisco billionaire Michael Moritz, a driving force behind California Forever, appeared to hint at the idea in his pitch to potential investors back in 2017.

“He painted a kind of urban blank slate where everything from design to construction methods and new forms of governance could be rethought,” reported The New York Times, which first revealed the billionaires’ plan.

Cue the blond kid singing "Tomorrow Belongs to Me" in a brown shirt. 

We really need to start enforcing existing laws against these folks.  They are a menace to society.

 

Disgraceful

Argentine President Javier Milei has had to be forced by a judge to distribute food in warehouses to the poor.

It seems that he would rather let the food rot than distribute it to hungry children, because he derives pleasure from hurting people.

If he were an American, he'd be on his way to being the Republican nominee:

By order of Judge Sebastian Casanello, President Javier Milei was forced to distribute food that was intended for social assistance programs for the poorest Argentines.

On Tuesday, the Argentine army began distributing food valued at approximately US$4 million that had been stored unused and was about to expire.

This situation triggered a scandal, leading to the resignation of senior officials from the Human Capital Ministry. Prosecutor Paloma Ochoa is leading an investigation into the matter.

About 5,000 tons of food, abandoned in two state warehouses, must be distributed in the next two weeks under an immediate delivery protocol due to the expiration dates of the products.

With the support of the highway police, food distribution operations are being carried out in the provinces of Buenos Aires and Tucuman.

………

Specifically, the food will be distributed by the Foundation for Child Nutrition (CONIN) in community dining halls in Buenos Aires peripheral settlements such as Hurlingham, Merlo, Jose Paz, Escobar, and Tigre, which are areas severely affected by poverty.

………

The Human Capital Ministry announced that it will design a new emergency aid storage system to be overseen by presidential advisor Federico Sturzenegger, who is considered the architect of the Milei administration's anti-regulation and anti-state reforms. 

Yeah, let's put one of the, "The cruelty is the point," psychopaths in charge of this. That's going to end well.

40+ years of international Neoliberal economics has left an electorate that see no hope beyond burning everything down.

This is what you get.


 

Ecch (Tweet) of the Day


Wear our f%$#ing mask.

All of those, "Mysterious," recent outbreaks of diseases are not so misterious.

22 July 2024

I’m with the Insurance Companies on This One

And I cannot f%$3 believwe that I just f%$#ing wrote that, but the insurers are right here, building standards in fire prone areas must be improved.

Actually, strike the, "Fire prone areas," modifier.  Given climate change, everywhere has the potential to be a fire prone area:

The insurance industry is setting homes on fire — just to make a point.

The fires are controlled, kindled in a research lab or staged at training facilities used by fire departments. They are designed to simulate the conditions that help wildfires spread through neighborhoods and cause what the insurers call a “conflagration event,” like the one that killed 102 people and destroyed the town of Lahaina on Maui in Hawaii last August.

The message to homebuilders is stark: Homes in certain parts of the United States must now be constructed with wildfires in mind, or they most likely will not be insured, which would mean they couldn’t be bought with a mortgage.

In part because of climate change and the resulting increase in catastrophic storms and fires, insuring homes in some parts of the country has become a money-losing proposition for the industry. Across the United States, insurers lost $33 billion in 2023 on personal home and auto insurance, according to AM Best, a ratings agency for the industry.

………

That “something” could be the biggest overhaul of building standards in more than 30 years. After Hurricane Andrew devastated part of South Florida in 1992, pressure from the insurance industry compelled homeowners and builders in the state to switch to stronger windows and roof ties. The industry is applying a similar kind of pressure now in response to growing wildfire risk.

I would also note that we have a significant "Fire debt" in those regions as a result of over a century of aggressive fire fighting, so prescribed burns should be a part of this as well.

Not only will it make larger and more extreme fires less likely, but it will return the ecology back to what it was, because the west is largely fire sculpted ecology.

But Bibi Does Not Care

We now have increasing indications of a polio outbreak in Gaza as a result of the war, the IDF has started vaccinating soldiers.

This means that there is a very real chance of a spread of polio both in Gaza and throughout Israel, but Benjamin Netanyahu will continue to prosecute the war, because once it ends, he loses power and goes to jail for corruption.

He will likely be directly responsible for a plague being unleashed in Israel.

If that does not sound like some seriously biblical sh%$, as in the earth swallowing Korach, and the  plague that followed in בְּמִדְבַּר (Numbers), you have not studied תַּ× ַ״ךְ (Tanakh).

The Israeli army will begin on Sunday to vaccinate against polio all soldiers operating in Gaza or due to enter there soon, after a high concentration of the virus was found in sewage in Gaza.

Vaccination of the soldiers will take place in Israel over the coming weeks. The army says that, according to its information, there are no active cases of polio among Gazans.
Given that there is no healthcare system remaining in Gaza, there is no good information about potential polio cases either.  (Note also that in over 90% of cases, one would see only mild symptoms without paralysis)

Last Wednesday, the army was informed by the Health Ministry that a high concentration of the poliovirus was found in sewage samples from Gaza that were monitored.

As a result, the Health Ministry and IDF Medical Corps held an assessment and decided to launch a polio vaccination campaign for all ground forces in Gaza, including the combat forces and auxiliary forces.

Polio vaccines are given in Israel during childhood as part of the routine vaccination program, and the vaccination rate is 95 percent. Thus, the soldiers now in Gaza have been previously vaccinated against the virus.

Nonetheless, after situational assessment conducted by the IDF, with the participation of public health service chief Dr. Sharon Elroi-Price and senior Medical Corps officials, it was recommended that the soldiers be vaccinated again in order to further reduce the risk of infection and of transmission of the virus in Israel.

This is getting worse and worse.

Another Update on the Democratic Presidential Nomination

J.B. Pritzger and most of the Illinois Democratic Congressional Caucus have endorsed Kamala Harris.

Meanwhile, Illinois's most prominent political figure, Barack Obama, has come out in favor of an open convention

The most charitable assessment that I con offer for this, and I have never been inclined to give Obama the benefit of the doubt, is that he wants to play king-maker at the convention, because he wants to make sure that what he sees as his legacy, including the increasingly dysfunctional PPACA (Obamacare) is preserved.

Considering the fact that the only person even briefly making noises right now about challenging Harris for the nomination is ex-Democrat Jim Manchin, though only for about 18 hours.

As it stands now, it appears that Harris might get sufficient delegates pledged to her to put her over the top in the next few days.

I expect the proverbial fat lady to sing some time in the next day or so.

Support Your Local Police

After an LA Times reporter received a list of cops whose records made them unreliable witnesses, the L.A. County sheriff launched a criminal investigation into the reporter

You know, maybe it would be a better do launch an investigation of the deputies who planted evidence, lied on the stand, brutalized people, filed false reports, and sexually assaulted children.

Then again, maybe I just don't understand policing:

For at least three years, the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department secretly investigated — and ultimately urged the state attorney general to prosecute — a Los Angeles Times reporter who wrote about a leaked list of problem deputies, according to internal department records.

The probe began in 2017 when investigators under then-Sheriff Jim McDonnell tried to figure out who slipped the list of roughly 300 names to reporter Maya Lau. The case soon fizzled out. But after Alex Villanueva took office in 2018, the department revived it, according to a 300-page investigative case file recently reviewed by The Times.

The department eventually deemed Lau a criminal suspect — alleging she knowingly received “stolen property.” And it fingered Diana Teran, its own constitutional policing advisor, as the source of the leak, even though Teran was the one who’d initially reported it and denied passing along the information.

Sheriff’s officials sent the case to Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta in 2021, and in May of this year his office formally declined to prosecute. The office declined to answer specific questions, saying only that it “found insufficient evidence” to merit criminal charges.

………

The years-long attempt to prosecute Lau is not the only time the Sheriff’s Department has targeted a reporter in recent years. In 2020, LAist reporter Josie Huang was slammed to the ground and arrested by sheriff’s deputies while covering a protest. Her press ID was visible on a lanyard around her neck. Villanueva defended his deputies’ handling of the incident and referred the case to the district attorney’s office so Huang could be prosecuted. Prosecutors declined to take up the case, and Huang sued, settling with the county last year for $700,000.

Two years after Huang’s arrest, Villanueva targeted another Times journalist in a criminal leak investigation for her reporting on a departmental cover-up. After announcing the probe at a public news conference, he backed off under a barrage of criticism and denied that he considered the reporter a suspect.

Both of those cases received widespread media coverage, and this week independent journalist Cerise Castle reported on department records showing that sheriff’s officials had been keeping an eye on her as far back as 2021.

As bad as police departments can be, Sheriffs departments tend to be even worse, because unlike chiefs of police, they have no civilian oversight at all.

This will not change until criminal prosecutions for this sort of behavior become the rule rather than the exception.

21 July 2024

We Have a Winner!

For the worst possible take on Biden dropping out of the race.

Rather unsurprisingly, it comes from serial misogynist Aaron Sorkin, and it was published in the New York Times.

He suggests that the Democrats nominate 77 year old Mitt Romney, because when Aaron Sorkin is not busy stealing lines from Keith Olbermann's dad for his scripts, he's a self-important moron who fancies himself a super genius for writing a political porn series on network television starting in the last century.

So, you want someone almost as old as Donald Trump, someone who had dismissed 47% of the US population as leeches, someone who made his money laying off workers while at a private equity fund, someone who joked about the pooping dog on the roof of his car, etc.?

Aaron Sorkin, please f%$# off.  Now.

As for the New York Times, the, "Paper of record," is now beyond parody.  It has degenerated into little more than a telethon for the over-privileged.


A Slightly More Measured Take on the News

First, I continue to believe that Biden's withdrawal makes Trump's election more likely.

Second, it's clear that the nominee, as all of the usual suspects, Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Phil Murphy, and Gretchen Whitmer have endorsed Kamala Harris. (Here and here)

Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzger has issued a statement, but has not formally endorsed Harris.

So it is clearly going to be Harris.

My predictions:

  • Trump will weasel out of a debate with Harris.
  • Vance will weasel out of a debate with whoever the VP choice is.
  • The VP choice will be a right of the party center white guy like Tim Kaine in Hillary Clinton's ill starred 2016 campaign.

I expect that her campaign and related strategy will be run by the Democratic Party establishment (There is no Democratic Party establishment), which is a bad thing, because they are corrupt self-serving incompetents.

I would note that my predictive powers are limited, but I am not optimistic.

Holy Fucking Shit!

Biden had announced that he is dropping out of the race.


Call me a pessimist, but I think that the Democrats have just lost the election.

The next question is, "Who will be Harris' VP pick?"

Alexandria Ocasio Cortez turns 35 in October.

Just sayin'.

In the meantime, I'll be kind of busy, looking at selling the house and the process for making Alyiah to Israel.

Yeah, I think it's that bad.

Posted via mobile.

Mandy Rice-Davies Applies

Facing regulatory pressure, RealPage is claiming that it is not an illegal tool to allow collusiion on rents.

If RealPage just reported the rents entered from its clients, it might have a case, but it also requires that its customers follow the recommendations for rents.

Not gonna fly:

RealPage says it isn’t doing anything wrong by suggesting to landlords how much rent they could charge. In a move to reclaim its own narrative, the property management software company published a microsite and a digital booklet it’s calling “The Real Story,” as it faces multiple lawsuits and a reported federal criminal probe related to allegations of rental price fixing.

RealPage’s six-page digital booklet, published on the site in mid-June, addresses what it calls “false and misleading claims about its software”—the myriad of allegations it faces involving price-fixing and rising rents—and contends that the software benefits renters and landlords and increases competition. It also said landlords accept RealPage’s price recommendations for new leases less than 50 percent of the time and that the software recommends competitive prices to help fill units.

………

Allegations of price-fixing that may constitute antitrust violations have dogged the software company since late 2022, when ProPublica published an investigation alleging that RealPage’s software was linked to rent rises in some US cities, as the company used private, aggregated data provided by its customers to suggest rental prices. (In response to ProPublica's reporting, RealPage commented that it “uses aggregated market data from a variety of sources in a legally compliant manner.”)

RealPage’s software is powerful because it anonymizes rental data and can provide landlords and property managers with nonpublic and public data about rentals, which may be different from that advertised publicly on platforms like real estate marketplace Zillow. The company contends that it’s not engaging in price-fixing, as landlords are not forced to accept the rents that RealPage’s algorithm suggests. Sometimes it even recommends landlords lower the rent, RealPage claims. But antitrust enforcers have alleged that even sharing private information via an algorithm and using it for price recommendations can be as conspiratorial as back-room handshake deals, even if landlords don’t end up renting apartments at those rates. The reported antitrust investigation is ongoing.

………

RealPage’s algorithmic pricing model is among one of the first subject to scrutiny, perhaps due to its involvement in housing, a necessity that has ballooned in price as housing supply languishes. Typical rent in the US is just under $2,000, according to Zillow, up from around $1,500 in early 2020. “Housing affordability is a national problem created by economic and political forces—not by the use of revenue management software,” RealPage says. But renters can’t tell whether their rates are rising because of algorithms or not.

“It’s almost impossible to know if you are just a spectator or a victim,” says Shanti Singh, legislative and communications director with Tenants Together, a California-based coalition of tenants activists. If tenants call a hotline over raised rent or fees, “we’re not necessarily going to be able to see or connect that their landlord is using RealPage.”

The state of Arizona sued RealPage and nine landlords in February, claiming a conspiracy between the company and landlords led renters in Phoenix and Tucson to pay “millions of dollars” more in rent. That followed a similar lawsuit out of Washington, DC. In the capital’s greater metropolitan area, more than 90 percent of rental units in large apartment buildings were priced using RealPage software, according to DC’s attorney general.

The cases against RealPage put algorithmic pricing to the test; as the technology becomes more common, antitrust law has yet to keep pace. Officials have other concerns around algorithms used for alleged hotel price fixing, as well as e-commerce algorithms. “The concern of regulators that algorithms can be used in ways that harm competition—that idea is here to stay,” says Ed Rogers, a partner at law firm Ballard Spahr who focuses on antitrust cases. “RealPage could end up really being a test case, not just for the real estate rental industry but for this aspect of AI and software and its role in a competitive landscape.”

………

In June, The New York Times asked Assistant US Attorney General Jonathan Kanter, the Justice Department’s top antitrust official, if he would view an AI tool communicating pricing information as the same as humans colluding, with the question referencing the reported RealPage investigation. Kanter replied: “I often say that if your dog bites somebody, you’re responsible for your dog biting somebody. If your AI fixes prices, you’re just as responsible.”

The Justice Department also last year filed a statement of interest in the RealPage combined class action lawsuit, as the case could become a precedent setter in algorithmic pricing. The statement mirrored Kanter’s argument that the method of price setting doesn’t matter, and algorithms are just the latest evolution in information gathering and sharing.

“In-person handshakes gave way to phone and fax, and later to email. Algorithms are the new frontier,” the Justice Department argued in a statement of interest it filed in the class action lawsuit against RealPage and landlords. “And, given the amount of information an algorithm can access and digest, this new frontier poses an even greater anti-competitive threat than the last.”

Illegal collusion is not a minor side-effect, it is the core business plan for RealPage.

Note that this is a criminal offense.  In the old days, before the 1980s, executives were not infrequently thrown in jail for this behavior.

We need to go old school on RealPage's managers.

20 July 2024

Ecch (Tweet) of the Day


The late Dave Graeber nails it.

The, "radical centrists," are truly radicals, and they are radical and uncompromising because they have no ideas beyond pleasing their big campaign contributors, who want low taxes and a precarious and cooperative workforce.

It's all performative bullsh%$.

Support Your Local Police

It appears that the Chicago Police Department is just fine with hiring right-wing terrorists.

Perhaps the City of Chicago might want to consider replacing the CPD with something that is not terrorist friendly:

The city of Chicago’s Inspector General is back at it, pointing out things are very, very wrong with the Chicago Police Department. Not that anyone needed any reminders. A long history of disinterest in disciplining misbehaving officers has led to everything from an off-the-books black site operation to more than 100 misconduct charges being racked up by officers involved in a single wrong house raid.

Like lots of other law enforcement agencies, the Chicago PD has officers who are members of far right extremist groups. A lot of this came to light during the FBI’s investigation of the January 6 insurrection, where it was discovered that law enforcement officers from all over the nation traveled to Washington DC — not to help secure the Capitol building or protect those inside, but to engage in criminal activity of their own.

The Chicago PD is no exception. This latest report details how many officers are involved with far right groups like the Proud Boys and the Three Percenters. It also details how little the PD has done to root out the potential insurrectionists in its midst. (via Chicago Fox affiliate FOX 32) 

………

After detailing the history of and harmful acts committed by far right extremist groups (the three detailed are the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and Three Percenters), the OIG moves on to point out that the CPD has, in the past, rooted out cops with ties to bigoted extremist groups. You know, like the KKK, to name just one.

………

As the OIG notes, allowing officers to join extremist groups — especially ones that consider lawbreaking an essential part of their “resistance” and consider themselves to be, if not actual white nationalists, closely aligned with their philosophies — further damages already tenuous relationships with the communities these officers serve. Looking the other way only encourages more officers to associate with extremists, which is the sort of thing that leads directly to officers committing federal crimes while attempting to overturn a lawful national election.

………

There’s a good chance CPD brass considers membership in the Proud Boys, et al to be a feature, not a bug. After all, plenty of police officials have openly stated they won’t enforce laws they don’t like (mainly things like gun control efforts or sanctuary city statutes). And there’s no law enforcement agency in the land that doesn’t generously deploy double standards to protect the worst officers they employ. The fact that these extremist groups direct most of their animosity against liberals, minorities, and LGBTQ+ persons is just icing on the cake. It aligns with the implicit biases that have plagued law enforcement agencies since their inception.

(emphasis mine)

I think that it is completely reasonable to assume that the police leadership considers their officers' membership in right-wing terrorists to be a feature and not a bug.

This is why I think police forces need to be metaphorically demolished right down to their foundations.

It is impossible to build something good from the existing structure.

White Boys Failing Up

I missed one of the more significant bits of information about the CrowdStrike debacle, that its CEO, George Kurtz, was CTO at McAfee over a decade ago when they were responsible for a similar disaster.

The degree to which people like Kurtz continue to succeed at jobs for which they are patently ill suited just buggers the mind:

A good portion of the world stood still on Friday, resulting in one of the most widespread tech outages of all time.

The outage disrupted operations at major banks, airlines, retailers, and other industries after CrowdStrike, a cybersecurity giant used by Microsoft and others, pushed a faulty update.

Many industries were still digging out of the debacle on Saturday. The fallout is expected to last weeks.

………

Naturally, blame has begun to target the man at the center of it all: CrowdStrike CEO George Kurtz.

Tech industry analyst Anshel Sag pointed out that this isn't the first time Kurtz has played a major role in a historic IT blowout.

On April 21, 2010, the antivirus company McAfee released an update to its software used by its corporate customers. The update deleted a key Windows file, causing millions of computers around the world to crash and repeatedly reboot. Much like the CrowdStrike mistake, the McAfee problem required a manual fix.

Kurtz was McAfee's chief technology officer at the time. Months later, Intel acquired McAfee. And several months after that Kurtz left the company. He founded CrowdStrike in 2012 and has been its CEO ever since.

"For those who don't remember, in 2010, McAfee had a colossal glitch with Windows XP that took down a good part of the internet," Sag wrote on X. "The man who was McAfee's CTO at that time is now the CEO of CrowdStrike."

Seriously, how has this guy risen in the ranks of IT security after being at the helm of a huge f%$# up?

Oh, right, CrowdStrike.  The CIA's favorite security firm.

The CIA loves incompetence.

19 July 2024

Headline of the Day

For the Rest of the World, the U.S. President Has Always Been Above the Law
Foreign Affairs

This is a commentary on the disgraceful and corrupt Supreme Court ruling on Presidential immunity for Donald Trump.

It's true, as any wedding party droned by the United States can attest to.

Speaking of Computer F%$# Ups


This Time Lapse of Airline Flights is Nuts

It appears that the US State Security Apparatus' favorite cybersecurity operation, CrowdStrike, blue screen of deathed a significant proportion of the business machines running Windows 10 offline much of today, causing airlines, banks, hospitals, etc. to shut down worldwide. 

They appear top have found the problem, but I do not expect any meaningful consequences for this cluster-f%$#:

Airlines grounded flights. Operators of 911 lines could not respond to emergencies. Hospitals canceled surgeries. Retailers closed for the day. And the actions all traced back to a batch of bad computer code.

A flawed software update sent out by a little-known cybersecurity company caused chaos and disruption around the world on Friday. The company, CrowdStrike, based in Austin, Texas, makes software used by multinational corporations, government agencies and scores of other organizations to protect against hackers and online intruders.

But when CrowdStrike sent its update on Thursday to its customers that run Microsoft Windows software, computers began to crash.

………

A cyberattack did not cause the widespread outage, but the effects on Friday showed how devastating the damage can be when a main artery of the global technology system is disrupted. It raised broader questions about CrowdStrike’s testing processes and what repercussions such software firms should face when flaws in their code cause major disruptions.

No, this did NOT raise, "Broader questions about CrowdStrike's testing process," it answered questions.

The answer is that CrowdStrike does not care, and they do not have to, because f%$#ing sh%$ up like this never results in significant sanctions against incompetent software vendors.

………

But problems stemming from CrowdStrike’s products have surfaced before. In April, the company pushed a software update to customers running the Linux system that crashed computers, according to an internal CrowdStrike report sent to customers about the incident, which was obtained by The New York Times.

The bug, which did not appear to be related to Friday’s outage, took CrowdStrike nearly five days to fix, the report said. CrowdStrike promised to improve its testing process going forward, according to the report.

So, it's happened before, and there were no meaningful consequences.  

This ain't even a cost of doing business.  They save money by not doing proper quality control, and their customers pay for it. 

Cybersecurity and fault tolerance don't make them any money, so companies like CrowdStrike don't bother.

Today in Health Data Insecurity

General practitioners in the UK are miffed because two software systems have been updated to allow 3rd parties to update patient records without the knowledge or approval of the patients or their doctors.

My guess is that this change is yet another attempt to bring the private sector into the operations of the NHS, but in any case, this appears to be insecure and dangerous for patients:

The UK's doctors' union has advised members running GP surgeries to turn off certain functionality in their IT system to prevent outside organizations adding to their workloads.

The row has broken out between the prestigious British Medical Association (BMA) and NHS England over data sharing capabilities in two common systems, TPP and EMIS.

In a YouTube video, Dr Katie Bramall-Stainer, chair of the BMA's GP Committee, said GP Connect – a feature that allows data to be shared between general practices and other healthcare organizations – had introduced a new function called Update Record. At the moment, it is only being used to allow pharmacists to add data to GP records in a limited way.

However, concerns had been raised when the GP system providers had "tipped off" the BMA that doctors' ability to turn off the Update Record function was set to be removed.


"EMIS and TPP tipped us off that NHS England have asked for that 'off switch' to be removed," she said.

Because GPs are legally controllers of patient data under the UK's data protection law, they need to be able to prevent third parties updating records when necessary.

Even without the data protection law, it would seem to me that GPs would have a professional and moral obligation to prevent third parties from updating patient records without permission.

………

In a prepared statement, Dr David Wrigley, deputy chair and digital lead of BMA's England GP Committee, said: "We are recommending to GPs that they turn off the Update Record facility on GP Connect at the present time while we engage in discussions with NHS England to better understand the implications of this software.

"We are concerned about changes that allow others to add diagnoses, observations, and medications. These changes could have unintended consequences and add further pressure to the GP needing to ensure follow-up and ongoing care is provided to the patient due to other clinicians' decisions and actions. This will include more requests for follow-ups and support for patients for work initiated by others outside the practice team."

Given the predilection for the now former Tory government to ward privatizing NHS functions, and they tried to push while the elections were going on.

I cannot attribute this to anything but a desire for the Conservative appointed NHS executives to further put the privatization camel's nose further in the tent .

Go Long on Fig Newtons

In the 2018 farm bill, Congress legalized the growing of hemp, basically marijuana with a, "delta-9 tetrahydrocannabinol [THC] concentration of not more than 0.3 percent on a dry weight basis."

However, it does not control the level of cannabidiol (CBD), which is non intoxicating, nor does it control the level of delta-8 tetrahydrocannabinol, which is intoxicating, though delta-8 is generally only present in small quantities.

However, it is relativelystraightforward to convert CBD to delta-8 THC.

So technically, you can grow hemp (legal) and extract delta-8, but you can also market supplements containing the delta-9 molecule at less than 0.3% in the formulation.

………

Hemp-based intoxicants aren’t limited to delta-8 THC. The Farm Bill also appears to authorize  the creation of hemp-based delta-9 THC products as long as the total delta-9 content is 0.3 percent or less of the product’s dry weight. This turns out to be easy to do. Carolindica, for instance, sells a 10-gram gummy that contains 30 milligrams of hemp-derived delta-9 THC, which is exactly 0.3 percent of the gummy’s total weight. The Florida-based company Crispy Blunts sells a cookie that weighs 22 grams and contains 50 milligrams of delta-9 THC. At 0.23 percent by weight, that’s well under the Farm Bill’s threshold, but the total THC content is five to 10 times as high as the legal per-serving limit in many of the states that have legalized recreational-marijuana edibles.

Oops.

It will be interesting to see what happens in court.

Headline of the Day

ChatGPT Isn’t ‘Hallucinating’—It’s Bullshitting!
Scientific American

Yes, I know I did not Bowdlerize the swear word, even though it's not January, but it is too good not to quote completely, particularly as a headline for Scientific American.

It's also accurate.  The failures of the LLM artificial intelligence are not some sort of bizarre artifact, they are the result of a deliberate decision by ChatGPT and its competitors to bullsh%$ in the hope that they can create the illusion of actual useful intelligence:

Right now artificial intelligence is everywhere. When you write a document, you’ll probably be asked whether you need your “AI assistant.” Open a PDF and you might be asked whether you want an AI to provide you with a summary. But if you have used ChatGPT or similar programs, you’re probably familiar with a certain problem—it makes stuff up, causing people to view things it says with suspicion.

It has become common to describe these errors as “hallucinations.” But talking about ChatGPT this way is misleading and potentially damaging. Instead call it bullshit.

We don’t say this lightly. Among philosophers, “bullshit” has a specialist meaning, one popularized by the late American philosopher Harry Frankfurt. When someone bullshits, they’re not telling the truth, but they’re also not really lying. What characterizes the bullshitter, Frankfurt said, is that they just don’t care whether what they say is true. ChatGPT and its peers cannot care, and they are instead, in a technical sense, bullshit machines.

 Frankfurt's essay was On Bullsh%$, and Dave Graeber's Bullsh%$ Jobs, further explored the concept of bullsh%$.

………

This isn’t rare or anomalous. To understand why, it’s worth thinking a bit about how these programs work. OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Gemini chatbot and Meta’s Llama all work in structurally similar ways. At their core is an LLM—a large language model. These models all make predictions about language. Given some input, ChatGPT will make some prediction about what should come next or what is an appropriate response. It does so through an analysis of enormous amounts of text (its “training data”). In ChatGPT’s case, the initial training data included billions of pages of text from the Internet.

From those training data, the LLM predicts, from some text fragment or prompt, what should come next. It will arrive at a list of the most likely words (technically, linguistic tokens) to come next, then select one of the leading candidates. Allowing for it not to choose the most likely word each time allows for more creative (and more human-sounding) language. The parameter that sets how much deviation is permitted is known as the “temperature.” Later in the process, human trainers refine predictions by judging whether the outputs constitute sensible speech. Extra restrictions may also be placed on the program to avoid problems (such as ChatGPT saying racist things), but this token-by-token prediction is the idea that underlies all of this technology.

Now, we can see from this description that nothing about the modeling ensures that the outputs accurately depict anything in the world. There is not much reason to think that the outputs are connected to any sort of internal representation at all. A well-trained chatbot will produce humanlike text, but nothing about the process checks that the text is true, which is why we strongly doubt an LLM really understands what it says.

It's bullsh%$, they know that it's bullsh%$, but these snollygosters know that they can exploit the AI mania before it all collapses like a bunch of broccoli.

If the US government were to actually prosecute tech bro fraud, we'd see 80% of the giants of Silly-Con valley in the dock.

18 July 2024

Gee, Here's a Surprise

Supporters of private school vouchers in Arizona claimed that they would save the state money.

They haven't.  They never were going to save the state money.

While giving a (for example) $10,000/student voucher seems a money saver compared to the $15,000/student cost of a public education, what has happened, as it was foretold, is that most of the money is going to people who are already putting their kids in private schools or home schooling their kids.

That does not matter to voucher supporters, because their real goal is to defund public schools so that they can create their own segregation academies:

In 2022, Arizona pioneered the largest school voucher program in the history of education. Under a new law, any parent in the state, no matter how affluent, could get a taxpayer-funded voucher worth up to tens of thousands of dollars to spend on private school tuition, extracurricular programs or homeschooling supplies.

In just the past two years, nearly a dozen states have enacted sweeping voucher programs similar to Arizona’s Empowerment Scholarship Account system, with many using it as a model.

Yet in a lesson for these other states, Arizona’s voucher experiment has since precipitated a budget meltdown. The state this year faced a $1.4 billion budget shortfall, much of which was a result of the new voucher spending, according to the Grand Canyon Institute, a local nonpartisan fiscal and economic policy think tank. Last fiscal year alone, the price tag of universal vouchers in Arizona skyrocketed from an original official estimate of just under $65 million to roughly $332 million, the Grand Canyon analysis found; another $429 million in costs is expected this year.

………

Advocates for Arizona’s universal voucher initiative had originally said that it wouldn’t cost the public — and might even save taxpayers money. The Goldwater Institute, a conservative think tank that helped craft the state’s 2022 voucher bill, claimed in its promotional materials at the time that the vouchers would “save taxpayers thousands per student, millions statewide.” Families that received the new cash, the institute said, would be educating their kids “for less than it would cost taxpayers if they were in the public school system.”

But as it turns out, the parents most likely to apply for these vouchers are the ones who were already sending their kids to private school or homeschooling. They use the dollars to subsidize what they were already paying for.

The result is new money coming out of the state budget. After all, the public wasn’t paying for private school kids’ tuition before.

(Emphasis mine

I pretty much guarantee you that the private schools and home schooling collectives started holding classes on how to apply for the vouchers as soon as this was passed.

The people lobbying for this and the legislators voting for this knew that this would happen, and they did not care.

Yes

Has Private Equity Become a Ponzi Scheme?
UnHerd

This has been another episode of simple answers to simple questions.

More seriously, the way that private equity conducts business is indistinguishable from fraud:

The economist Hyman Minsky’s name can once more be heard in ominous whispers around Wall Street. Private equity firms have recently been undertaking such funny financial manoeuvres that those who invest in the funds have had to put a stop to it. With private equity markets depressed, fund managers have been taking on so-called net asset value (NAV) loans to pay their investors’ dividends. Far from being happy to get their money, investors realised that the funds they had invested in were borrowing from Peter to pay Paul, and told them to cut it out.

In his stellar 1992 paper “The Financial Instability Hypothesis”, Minsky argued that there were three types of borrowing which corporate entities engaged in. He called these: hedge, speculative, and Ponzi. Hedge financing involves loans which are taken on, typically for business operations, and can then be paid back using a company’s cash flows. Speculative financing describes loans usually taken on to invest in the company, which can then ideally be paid off by the future cash flows generated by the new investment. Meanwhile, Ponzi financing refers to loans taken out by desperate companies which use them to simply pay interest on previous loans.

Minsky argued that when Ponzi financing units became predominant in an economy — or in part of the economy — this indicated that a financial crisis was brewing. The clue is in the name: a Ponzi scheme is upheld only through finding more and more people to pay up in the promise of money that is itself a result of convincing more and more people to pay up. It is hard not to see in private equity’s use of NAV loans to pay off dividends a classic Ponzi-financing regime.

Private equity’s entire model is based on Minsky’s concept of speculative financing. Fund managers buy up companies and then load them up with debt. This debt is typically used to drastically increase investment in the companies — and in doing so grow them and produce returns for investors. This carries risks. If too many of the investments go bad, the fund might go bankrupt and investors might pull out. There is more than a little speculation that the NAV loans signal that much of the sector has already gone bad and is engaged in increasingly funny tricks to try to cover it up.

………

There are also questions surrounding the links between private equity investing and the property markets. After the 2008 crisis, the central banks and regulators said: “Never again”, and imposed strict regulations on bank lending. When we look at mortgage-lending data, we see that banks are not providing the credit for the current rise in house prices — leading to suggestions that it might be the so-called “shadow-banking” sector of private equity and hedge funds which is driving the market.

If the current murmurs proves correct, this could all collapse in a Minsky moment reminiscent of 2008, but with private equity and hedge funds responsible rather than the banks. Pension funds would be affected, but so would banks allocating capital to the private equity sector. If this scenario were to play out, expect there to be bailouts just as there were in 2008. The central banks and the regulators may have said “Never again”, but speculative credit, like life, tends to find a way.

The regulators never said, "Never again," they, specifically timothy "Eddit Haskell" Geithner said, "Foam the runway," and Barack Obama, said, "My administration is the only thing between you and the pitchforks."

The regulators said, "Don't worry, no matter how badly you broke the law, no one is going to jail, and no matter how incompetent you are, you will still have a job, except, of course for the scapegoats at Lehman."

Less than 2 decades later, we are on a path to repeat the mistakes that Obama made.

And they wonder why people are drawn to an spray tanned fraud who promises to burn it all down.