Getting Your War On

Most alarmingly, we are now seeing that the US Military officer corps is rife with Talibaptist Jihadists who see this war as a path to the rapture.

This needs to be removed from the military root and branch, and not just because is contrary to good faith and discipline, but because religious crusades always end up extremely brutal and cruel, even by the standards of the day.

A combat-unit commander told non-commissioned officers at a briefing Monday that the Iran war is part of God’s plan and that Pres. Donald Trump was “anointed by Jesus to light the signal fire in Iran to cause Armageddon and mark his return to Earth,” according to a complaint by a non-commissioned officer.

From Saturday morning through Monday night, more than 110 similar complaints about commanders in every branch of the military had been logged by the Military Religious Freedom Foundation (MRFF).

The complaints came from more than 40 different units spread across at least 30 military installations, the MRFF told me Monday night.

The MRFF is keeping the complainants anonymous to prevent retribution by the Defense Department. The Pentagon did not immediately respond to my request for comment.

One complainant identified themselves as a non-commissioned officer (NCO) in a unit currently outside the Iran combat zone but in Ready-Support status, deployable at any time. The NCO said they were Christian and emailed the MRFF on behalf of 15 troops, including at least 11 Christians, one Muslim, and one Jew. (Full email printed below.)

The NCO wrote to the MRFF that their commander “urged us to tell our troops that this was ‘all part of God’s divine plan’ and he specifically referenced numerous citations out of the Book of Revelation referring to Armageddon and the imminent return of Jesus Christ.”

If you think that making war will lead to the 2nd coming, you have no limits.

Espect to see atrocitys that make My Lai look like acakd-walk.

Also, we now have confirmation that it was the United States that blew up the girls' school in Iran, and what's more, the target was chosen by AI.

The Iranian elementary school building where scores of children were killed as the U.S. and Israel began their massive aerial campaign was on a U.S. target list and may have been mistaken for a military site, multiple people familiar with the strike told The Washington Post.

The deadly attack occurred in the first few hours of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran — just as parents were hurrying to the two-story schoolhouse to take their kids home to safety — and killed at least 175 people, many of them children, according to Iranian state media.

It is still not clear why the building was hit, but one person familiar with the school strike said the building had been identified as a factory and had been an approved strike target. A second person familiar said there was an arms depot target located in the same area and did not know if the United States hit the school by mistake, or if U.S. officials had the wrong intelligence and thought the building was the arms depot.

………

According to five people familiar with the issue, both the Israeli and U.S. militaries are using Palantir’s Maven to conduct operations. Maven is a battlefield intelligence platform. The U.S. version is powered in part by Anthropic’s AI, Claude.

(emphasis mine)

Well, now we know why Anthropic wanted to restrict the Pentagon's use of their technology. They knew that something like this would happen.

Unlike Palantir, I think that the folks at Anthropic understood that using their technology was reckless and its use could land them in the Hague. 

This is not a surprise. 

Also, it appears that SecDef Hegseth shut down a Pentagon program to minimize civilian casualties, because ……… I don't know. ……… Maybe the drunkard thinks that killing little kids is macho?

On a tactical level, it appears that Iran forces have been extremely successful in striking US and Israeli radars and similar systems, so much so that commercial satellite surveillance firm Planet Labs has been pressured into turning off access to imagery from the region.

It turns out that Trump and the Pentagon do have their limits though.  They were very miffed at Israel's targeting Iran's oil infrastructure.  

So it IS all about the oil, huh? 

Speaking of oil, it's above $100.00 a barrel, and Trump has decided to release 172,000,000 barrels from the already-depleated US oil reserves.

I don't think that it will do much, as 20% of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has attacked least 6 ships in the past 24 hours in the Strait.

Oil is going nowhere but up. 

Even more concerning is the fact that the US bombed an Iranian desalination plant, and Iran Iran retaliated by striking a desalination plant in Bahrain.

Both acts are unequivocally war crimes, and serious damage could result in the collapse of whole cities in a matter of just a few weeks.

Well, that's it for now.  Pleasant dreams. 

Not Sure What the Reason is for This

But Israel has becomes the first nation to formally recognize Somaliland, a region of what is generally considered to be Somalia which declared independence in 1991.

My guess is that the Israelis want to use the inevitable exchange of diplomatic personnel to derive some sort of military or intelligence advantage in Yemen, but I'm not sure what the Somalilanders get out of this.

Needless to say, the response of other African countries has been to preserve the (dysfunctional) colonial boundaries that they were left.  This has been one of the bedrock principles of every multinational project in Africa.

When there have been separations, South Sudan and Eritrea come to mind, they have been drawn on old colonial lines.

The interesting thing here is that Somaliland was colonized by the British, and the rest Somolia by Italy, and the union was largely created by British rat-fuckery on the way out.  (See India-Pakistan, Israel, Sri Lanka, Uganda, etc.  (In the latter two, they literally imported people from other parts of the empire to create ethnic tension)

I'm not quite sure how this is different from South Sudan and Eritrea, but the rest of Africa apparently sees this as an existential threat, which is what is worrying.

There is a lot that nations do in the face of a perceived existential threat. (Think of Biafra)

Israel has become the first country to recognise Somaliland as a sovereign state, a breakthrough in its quest for international recognition since it declared independence from Somalia 34 years ago.

The Israeli foreign minister, Gideon Sa’ar, announced on Friday that Israel and Somaliland had signed an agreement establishing full diplomatic relations, which would include the opening of embassies and the appointment of ambassadors.

The recognition is a historic moment for Somaliland, which declared its independence from Somalia in 1991 but until now had failed to be recognised by any UN member states. Somaliland controls the north-west tip of Somalia, where it operates a de facto state, and is bordered by Djibouti to the north-west and Ethiopia to the west and south.

 ………

The AU said it “firmly rejects” Israel’s move, warning: “Any attempt to undermine the unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Somalia ... risks setting a dangerous precedent with far-reaching implications for peace and stability across the continent.”

I don't thing that this is faux outrage.

………

Israeli analysts have said recognition of the breakaway state could be in Israel’s strategic interest, given Somaliland’s proximity to Yemen, where Israel has conducted extensive airstrikes against the Houthi rebels over the past two years.

A report in November by the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli thinktank, said: “Somaliland’s territory could serve as a forward base for multiple missions: intelligence monitoring of the Houthis and their armament efforts; logistical support for Yemen’s legitimate government in its war against them; and a platform for direct operations against the Houthis.”

As I noted, I understand why the Israelis wanted this, but I'm not sure what Somaliland gets out of this, except, perhaps, the first recognition, which is likely the hardest to get.

Of Course He is Looking for a Pardon

This one does not involve Trump, at least not directly.  Rather I am talking about Benjamin Netanyahu demanding a pardon from Israeli President Isaac Herzog. (It should be noted that the Israeli Presidency is a largely ceremonial position)

Trump is lobbying for Netanyahu's pardon, but I do not think that will have much impact.

More importantly Netanyahu is guilty as hell:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel asked its president on Sunday to pardon him in his long-running corruption trial, a request that the president called “extraordinary” and that critics said would run counter to the rule of law.

Mr. Netanyahu’s unusual pre-emptive appeal to President Isaac Herzog, while his trial is still underway, came about two weeks after President Trump sent a letter to Mr. Herzog urging him to pardon the Israeli prime minister.

A statement by the Israeli president’s office said the request would have “significant implications,” and that he would “responsibly and sincerely consider” it after seeking expert opinions. 

I really hope that this means, "F^%$ No!" from Herzog, but trying to figure out what an Israeli politician will do is well beyond my meager abilities to predict what people will do. 

As to the specifics of the charges, which do not include his having Israeli taxpayers foot a $2,700.00 a year for ice cream, there are 3 basic charges:

• Pressuring ministries and the US government to benefit rich Israelis in exchange for $300,000.00 in personal gifts.
• Discussing a quid pro quo with a media mogul in where he would put forward legislation disfavoring a rival media conglomerate for favorable coverage.
• Executing a quid pro quo with another media mogul to not put forward legislation disfavoring him in exchange for favorable coverage.

Pardoning Netanyahu will have a corrosive effect on Israeli politics, and Israeli politics is not, and has never been, particularly healthy to begin with.

And It's Off Again

5 days ago, I suggested that Netanyahu would do something to destroy the cease fire. 

It appears that I was wrong only with regard to the timing.

Israel on Sunday launched its heaviest wave of attacks on Gaza since a fragile cease-fire took hold a week ago and said it had temporarily suspended humanitarian aid after accusing Hamas of violating the truce by firing on its soldiers, killing two.

After nightfall, the Israeli military said in a statement that it had “begun the renewed enforcement of the cease-fire” after carrying out a series of significant strikes against Hamas targets and in accordance with a directive from the government.

The deadly flare-up of violence on Sunday and the temporary suspension of aid were the most serious tests yet of the cease-fire, which was negotiated under heavy pressure by the Trump administration and signed with great fanfare by President Trump himself.

You can never be too pessimistic or too cynical about events in the Middle East.

Better Than the Alternative

I was overly pessimistic, it seems.

Israel and Hamas exchanged prisoners/hostages today, so all of the living Israelis held by Hamas, and a large portion of the Palestinians held by Israel, went home.

I expected Netanyahu to do something to queer the deal, but I am pleasantly surprised to be wrong. 

Not Buying It

I do not believe that there is anything resembling a deal to end the Gaza War. 

Hamas promises to rel;ease all of the hostages, including the dead ones, and Netanyahu promises to stop bombing, "real soon."

This is not going to happen.  Hamas will not assent to being disarmed, which is a part of the proposal, and Netanyahu (יִמַּח שְׁמו) will never end the war, because it would mean that he would be turfed out of office and thrown in jail for corruption.  (He is guilty as hell)

I do not share the optimism of a n OP/ED writer at Haaretx, "How Trump Humiliated Netanyahu, Rewarded Qatar and Quashed the Messianic Right's Fantasies." 

The war should end.

The war must end.

Unfortunately the two entities who have the most effect on this, Benjaman Netanyahu (יִמַּח שְׁמו) and Hamas see no benefit in ending the war.

Color me a pessimist. 

Quote of the Day

To That, My Semi-Sardonic Response Has Been to Say That It Is Indeed Very Important That Initiatives like These Not Be Presented as “Rewarding Hamas” -- They Must Instead Be Framed as “Punishing Israel”.

—The Debate Link on accusations that the UK, France, et al recognizing israel is a reward for Hamas' attacks on October 7.

Israel is a Democracy, and in a democracy, a nation and its people have a responsibility for the leadership that they elect. 

That they have repeatedly elected a psycopath as a leader reflects directly on who and what Israel is.

To those of you who ask, "So, what does this mean about the United States and Donald Trump?", I respond, "Pretty much the same thing." 

This has been true since 2004, when George W. Bush was reelected. 

Benjamin Netanyahu (יִמַּח שְׁמו) Is the Greatest Threat Facing Israel

Netanyahu in his quest to keep his corrupt ass in power and out of jail, has done everything in his power to prevent any sort of negotiated resolution with the Palestinian polity, whether that be Fatah or Hamas, which is why he has been systematically assassinating negotiating teams.

Now we see the results, The UK, Australia, Canada, Portugal, and now France have formally recognized a Palestinian state.

This is a direct result of Netanyahu's machinations to stay in power.

He would throw his wife under the bus if thought that it would save him, and he is throwing the state of Israel under the bus. 

FWIW, I support a 2 state solution.  I am not sure what is possible now.

^*Netanyahu is a clear and present danger to the State of Israel.

Please note that I am not calling him a רוֹדֵף (rodef), literally a pursuer, which would mean that we are required under Halacha (Jewish law) that a רוֹדֵף (rodef) be stopped by any means necessary, including lethal force.

It would be irresponsible for me to call him a רוֹדֵף (rodef).  It would be irresponsible for anyone to ANYONE a רוֹדֵף (rodef).

It is an explicit call for the murder of another individual.

Do not call him a רוֹדֵף (rodef). It is wrong to call him a רוֹדֵף (rodef), even if Netanyahu tacitly endorsed such statements against Yitzhak Rabin before his assassination by a religious extremist.

Also calling him עֲמָלֵק (Amalek) is right out.

 

Please Let This Stick

We now have reports that Heridi parties in the Knesset are threatening to leave coalition with Likud over their conscription exemption.

This could take down the coalition, and remove Netanyahu from office.

This would be good for everyone in Israel not named Benjamin Netanyahu.  

Hell, it would be good for everyone in the world not named Benjamin Netanyahu. 

So, the Balloon Has Gone Up

So, Israel has launched massive airstrikes against Iran, and Iran is retaliating.

The obvious question is, "Why Now?" but in this case the answer is easy

Heredi parties were threatening to leave the coalition, and bring down the government over the extension of conscription to Orthodox Jews in Israel

This left Benjamin Netanyahu (יִמַּח שְׁמו) with no choice but to launch the attack, because if the government falls, Bibi's corrupt ass will end up in jail.

This was not about an imminent threat, this was about Netanyahu clinging to power.

The Trump administration probably gave its assent, but it the primary driver is the Israeli PM's current amorality and corruption.

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?

In Boulder, Colorado, a man attacked people demonstrating for the Israeli hostages in Gaza with a make-shift flame thrower.

Eight people were burned in Boulder, Colorado, in a firebombing attack on a demonstration to draw attention to the Israeli hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza.

At least one of the victims, who ranged from 55 to 88, was critically injured, according to authorities.

Police arrested one man at the scene. The FBI identified him as Mohamed Sabry Soliman, 45, and said he had used a “makeshift flamethrower” in the attack, which the agency said it was investigating as an act of terrorism. Soliman yelled, “Free Palestine,” during the attack, according to an FBI agent.

An eyewitness account posted by a pro-Israel X user included video showed a shirtless man, holding spray bottles, yelling, “End Zionists.” Footage shared on social media showed smoke and people on the ground. Screaming was audible.

I just cannot get my head around this. 

Hard to Write About This

Two staffers at the Israeli embassy in Washington, DC, Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgrim, were shot and killed by a gunman who shouted, "Free Palestine."

Needless to say there has been a lot of freaking out in the Jewish community:

A young couple who worked for the Israeli Embassy were shot dead near the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington late Wednesday by a gunman who chanted “free, free Palestine” after the shooting, according to authorities. A suspect was in custody, D.C. police said.

The victims were exiting the museum in Northwest Washington after attending an event hosted by the American Jewish Committee when the gunman opened fire, authorities said.

Israel’s X account identified the victims as Yaron Lischinsky and Sarah Lynn Milgrim. Israeli government officials said Thursday that Lischinsky was a research assistant in the Israeli Embassy’s political department and Milgrim organized missions and visits to Israel.

Needless to say, the Trump administration started trying to exploit this indecent to justify their policy priorities.

I just can't write about this any more, but I felt that I had to note this.

Gee, Corruption Much?

Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel has droped charges against University of Michigan pro-Palestinian protesters after it was revealed that she had what should have been disqualifying ties to the school's board of regents.

This creates the appearance of corruption.  She should have recused herself:

Michigan’s attorney general, Dana Nessel, announced on Monday that she was dropping all charges against seven pro-Palestinian demonstrators arrested last May at a University of Michigan encampment.

The announcement came just moments before the judge was to decide on a defense motion to disqualify Nessel’s office over alleged bias. Defense attorney Amir Makled said the motion largely stemmed from an October Guardian report detailing Nessel’s extensive personal, financial and political connections to university regents calling for the activists to be prosecuted.

These ties?

• $33,000 in campaign donations from university regents.
• Her office hired the law office of the regent who chaired her 2018 campaign.
• Her office was more than 8½ times more likely to prosecute protesters than the local DAs. 
  

“This was a case of selective prosecution and rooted in bias, not in public safety issues,” Makled added. “We’re hoping this sends a message to other institutions locally and nationally that protest is not a crime, and dissent is not disorder.”

It certainly seems that way.

………

The Guardian’s investigation revealed concrete evidence of conflicts that defense attorneys argued factored into the prosecutions. Among the findings, the story revealed Nessel’s office charged pro-Palestinian protesters at a higher rate than other state prosecutors.

Nessel was recruited by university regents, who were frustrated by local prosecutors’ unwillingness to crack down on most of the students arrested, to take over the case and file charges, three people with direct knowledge of the decision told the Guardian at the time.

The investigation also found that six of eight regents contributed more than $33,000 combined to Nessel’s campaigns. Additionally, her office hired a regent’s law firm to handle major state cases, and the same regent co-chaired her 2018 campaign. Meanwhile, Nessel received significant campaign donations from pro-Israel state politicians, organizations and university donors who over the last year have vocally criticized Gaza protests, records show.

………

Makled said the judge had told him he was leaning toward granting an evidentiary hearing on the bias allegation, which would have opened Nessel’s office to discovery, or the requirement to turn over evidence.

“I think she didn’t want to open the can of worms that was coming her way,” Makled added.

This is important because the State AG taking over local prosecutions in this way are highly unusual, and in this case it appears to be motivated by political considerations.

I Do Not Expect This to Last

If you can keep itThe announcement of a ceasefire deal between Hezbollah and Israel is better than there being no deal, but given that the Lebanese Army and the UN peacekeepers are the guarantors of this deal.

When juxtaposed with Benjamin Netanyahu's incentives, continued war = continued power = him not going to jail, I am not optimistic about the long term prospects:

A cease-fire meant to end the deadliest war in decades between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah officially took effect early Wednesday, less than a day after President Biden announced the deal and Israel approved its terms.

Thousands of Lebanese began to return to their homes in the first hours of the cease-fire. The fighting has killed thousands in Lebanon and around 100 Israeli civilians and soldiers. The conflict has also displaced about one million people in Lebanon, in addition to doing vast physical damage there, and about 60,000 people in Israel.

Lebanon’s government agreed on Wednesday morning to the deal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu endorsed it on Tuesday night and argued that a truce would allow Israel to rebuild its weapon stockpiles while it works to isolate Hamas, the Hezbollah ally that Israel is fighting in Gaza.

………

Under the terms of the deal, a U.N. peacekeeping force, along with the Lebanese Army, will keep the peace in the border zone, as envisioned in a 2006 United Nations Security Council resolution that ended the previous Israel-Hezbollah war but that was never fully carried out. 

………

The failure of the 2006 agreement, known as Resolution 1701, is hanging over the new one. Like the current cease-fire, 1701 relied on the Lebanese Army, which has not been in a position to control Hezbollah, and on U.N. peacekeepers, who have not been empowered to confront Hezbollah militarily.

Yeah, I'll take the "under" on how long this will last.

Kind of Like Watching Your Mother-in-Law Driving off of a Cliff in Your Brand New Car

The International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu. (יִמַּח שְׁמו)

I have noted many times that I consider Netanyahu to be the single greatest threat to the continued existence of the State of Israel, and that I also note that he is a shanda far di goyim (שאַנדע פֿאַר די גויים).

If there is any justice in this world, Netanyahu will spend the rest of his life in prison.

I do not care if Netanyahu is imprisoned in The Hague, or Ktzi'ot Prison, or Tehran, he needs to be locked up.

No Good Deed Goes Unpunished

At in Benjamin Netanyahu's (יִמַּח שְׁמו) Israel.

So, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced 7,000 draft notices being sent out to Heradim (Ultra-Orthodox) conscripts, and was promptly fired by Benjamin Netanyahu. (יִמַּח שְׁמו)

Gallant's actions were sensible and serve the needs of Israel, but they do not serve the needs of Netanyahu's coalition partners, and if they bail from the coalition, Bibi loses power and goes to jail.

As I have stated before Benjamin Netanyahu (יִמַּח שְׁמו) would sacrifice anyone and anything, including the future of the state of Israel to save his own ass:

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s firing of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is not a surprise. Given the bad blood between them and Netanyahu’s desire to squelch any and all dissent within the ranks of his ruling coalition, it was inevitable. But the timing is notable for a few reasons.

First, it comes on the heels of Gallant yesterday approving a round of 7,000 new draft orders for Haredi conscripts. This is after 3,000 draft notices for Haredim were issued earlier this year, and only 230 of those receiving notices reported to the Israel Defense Forces induction center.

Drafting the Haredim has been the major issue in Israel this week in light of Haredi threats to vote against the budget unless the coalition passes a bill addressing their draft-evasion priorities. Today, Netanyahu pulled a bill from the Knesset that would have guaranteed daycare subsidies for Haredi draft dodgers because it could not command a majority. Gallant was the bill’s leading opponent in the coalition. The Haredim pulling out of the coalition is Netanyahu’s nightmare since it will cost him his majority, and that possibility increased today when the prime minister was not able to wrangle his coalition to pass the incredibly unpopular bill, which is opposed by nearly every non-Haredi Israeli. Netanyahu is hoping that firing Gallant removes one big obstacle. 

But wait, there is more.  It appears that Netanyahu aides leaked secret documents in an attempt to sabotage any hostage deal with Hamas.

The only reason for this is to prolong the war in order to keep Netanyahu in power.

Second, the other big news this week is the arrest of five people, including a Netanyahu spokesperson, for stealing classified information and leaking it to reporters to squelch support for a hostage deal. There is also an investigation into Netanyahu’s aides altering the minutes of war cabinet meetings afterwards to deflect blame for thwarting a hostage deal. Anything that changes the conversation and draws attention away from the leak investigation and Netanyahu’s inner circle is good from his perspective, and firing Gallant will definitely do that, at least temporarily. Netanyahu excels at flooding the zone to distract from bad news.

Netanyahu is a cancer on the Israeli body politic.

 

This Business Will Get out of Control. It Will Get Out of Control and We’ll Be Lucky to Live Through It.

Cue Freddie Dalton Thompson

Israel has now launched missile strikes against Iran.

This is not, and has never been, about the safety and security of Israel, it has been about Benjamin Netanyahu's determination to stay in power at any cost.

The Israeli army launched airstrikes on military targets in Iran overnight into Saturday, the Israel Defense Forces announced in a statement.

"In response to months of continuous attacks from the regime in Iran against the State of Israel – right now the Israel Defense Forces is conducting precise strikes on military targets in Iran," IDF spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said in a statement released to the media.

………

Several strong explosions were heard in Iran's capital Tehran and the nearby city of Karaj city, Iranian state media initially reported overnight into Saturday.

The New York Times further reported that Iranians said that other explosions were occurring in other cities in Iran, including in Isfahan and Shahid. 

Iran's Fars News Agency reported that according to the information they currently have, the targets of the Israeli attack were military bases in western Iran. It was also reported that there are currently no signs of an attack on nuclear or oil facilities.

This is about Netanyahu wanting to prolong the war to prolong his time in power.

He would destroy the whole world to stay in power and stay out of jail.

My Initial Reaction Was Less than Somber

All you need to know about him in one picture
Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in a firefight in Gaza.

Rather refreshingly, this did not involve dropping a large bomb in an area largely populated by non-combatants.  

It also appears that this was happenstance, and not an intelligence coup.

Hopefully, this will lead to an end of hostilities:

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed early Thursday in the Gaza Strip, the IDF confirmed. Hamas sources told Reuters that there are indications that suggest that Sinwar had been killed in an Israeli operation in Gaza. The IDF added that there were no signs of the presence of hostages in the area in which Sinwar was killed.

A DNA sample from the body was sent to the Institute of Forensic Medicine, and dental images were sent to the police's forensic science unit. The DNA sample was compared to a sample from Sinwar collected when he was in Israeli prison. The military and the Shin Bet security service said that there have been dozens of operations over the past year and the past few weeks in the area where Sinwar was killed, which "limited Yahya Sinwar's ability to act... and led to his elimination."

Money, identification documents and combat equipment were found on the bodies of the terrorists. The troops that encountered the terrorists were not in the area for a targeted killing operation and did not have prior intelligence that Sinwar was present there.

The soldiers that killed the three are in training to be squad commanders, and are not part of a commando unit. It was operating in the area to locate Hamas members. Before dawn on Thursday, the troops began to suspect that there were Hamas members in the building and opened fire, including the use of tank shells and shoulder-fired missiles. Troops subsequently used drones to examine the building and located the bodies. Explosive devices had been planted in the building. Combat engineers were deployed to the site and neutralized them.

So it appears that his killing was just luck, though as Branch Ricky noted, (He might have been quoting John Milton) "Luck is a residue of design."

The world is a better place without him.  When he was jailed by the Israelis, it was for torturing and murdering Palestinians.

He was a particularly nasty piece of work, even by the standards of the region.

One hopes that this will provide an opportunity for the fighting to end, but I do not think that this is the case, and I lay that on the door step of Benjamin Netanyahu (יִמַּח שְׁמו), who will do anything to stay in power and out of jail, including prolonging the carnage.

………

Einav Zangauker, the mother of hostage Matan Zangauker, reacted to the news by addressing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, saying, "You got your image of victory. Now reach a deal." She added that "now, more than ever, the lives of my son Matan and the other hostages are in concrete danger... Netanyahu, [Defense Minister Yoav] Gallant, and the chief of staff have already said themselves that Hamas has been defeated militarily. A year after the failure [on October 7], this is the time to leverage the accomplishments and use [Sinwar's] elimination to take a diplomatic step that will bring our loved ones back home."

She added, "If Netanyahu does not take advantage of the momentum and does not stand up now and take a new Israeli initiative, even at the cost of ending the war, it means that he has decided to abandon my Matan and the other hostages, with the aim of prolonging the war and entrenching his rule."

Netanyahu is a greater threat to the state of Israel than Sinwar ever was.

They Got Him

The toll so farYesterday, I heard that Israel had launched an airstrike at Hezbollah headquarters in an attempt to kill its leader Hassam Nasrallah.

Today, at synagogue, our rabbi announced that the strike had been successful, and he was dead.

Thankfully, I had enough self-possession not to pump my fist in the air as a celebratory gesture, which says something about my state of mind.

That being said, I think that it is highly likely that Hezbollah's ability to prosecute this conflict will be constrained for the short term, but not in the long term.

In the long term, any effects on Hezbollah and its conflict with Israel will be a function of what policies are adopted by new leadership of the party.

That last bit, "The party," is an important part of any calculus.

Hezbollah is not a militia, it is a polity that operates a militia, and as such, the militia is a tool of the party. (It is a fact of life in Lebanon that political parties need to have an armed wing)

As to what the policies of Hezbollah under new leadership will be, damned if I know. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

As to Iran's relationship to, and support of Hezbollah, is likely to be largely unchanged.

Iran's primary justification for supporting Hezbollah is not as a part of making war on Israel, but rather that it sees itself as a defender of Shia Muslim communities across the world.

As such, Iran will likely to provide similar levels of support.

I should note here that this sort of imperative is not unique to Iran.

In France, for example, there is broad consensus across their polity that France has a moral obligation to support the French language and French culture in its former colonial possessions.

In the United States, there is a similar consensus that it must be the indispensable nation, which has led America into many self-destructive and expensive adventures.

In the long run, I expect the conflict to continue, and I expect that Benjamin Netanyahu (יִמַּח שְׁמו) to continue to be the greatest threat that Israel faces for its continued survival.

It's going to get worse before it gets better.

Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezbollah and one of Israel's most formidable enemies, was killed on Friday in a massive Israeli airstrike on Beirut. Israel confirmed his death on Saturday morning.

………

Nasrallah, 64, led Hezbollah for 32 years, since Israel assassinated his predecessor, Abbas al-Musawi, in 1992. His charismatic leadership and political savvy made him one of the most influential figures in Lebanon and the wider Middle East.

The Israeli strike on Hezbollah's headquarters in the southern suburbs of Beirut also killed the commander of the organization's southern front, Ali Karaki, as well as the commander of the Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon, Abbas Nilforushan.

According to estimates by Israeli defense officials, about 300 people were killed in the air force strike. Some of the victims were in nearby buildings. IDF Spokesman Daniel Hagari said that the facility that was targeted is located underneath residential buildings. 

Walkie Talkies Now?

Yesterday, it was pagers, todays, it's Walkie-Talkies detonating.

 As Anna Russel would say, "I'm not making this up, you know."

I hate reruns:

Hezbollah was hit Wednesday by another wave of exploding devices, as Israel signaled it was moving toward more aggressive military action against the Lebanese militant group.

Walkie-talkies used by the group blew up in homes, cars and in operatives’ hands across the country, people familiar with the matter said, just a day after thousands of pagers carried by Hezbollah members exploded at roughly the same time. The new attack killed 20 people and injured more than 450, after Tuesday’s bombings killed 12 and injured more than 2,800 people, according to Lebanon’s government, which blamed Israel.

The militant group was scrambling to assess the extent of the two days of explosions. Details emerging from investigations into Tuesday’s massive attack pointed to a complex plan carried out by Israel, in which explosives were planted in thousands of devices destined for Hezbollah members and then detonated by a remote signal.

………

Wednesday’s blasts widened the scale of an already unprecedented attack. Israel has faced criticism for triggering a wave of untargeted explosions that put civilians at risk. Tuesday’s attack filled many hospital emergency rooms to capacity and left two children among the dead.

Hezbollah members said some explosions on Wednesday were stronger than those in the pager attack, which left victims with severed hands, damaged eyes or gashes in their hips and sides.

………

Senior officials from the militant group ordered an immediate, broad investigation to identify how the attack happened and understand its implications. Hezbollah was also looking at the possibility of insider collaborators who might have leaked information about the procurement of the pagers.

It was the General Secretary of Hamas, Hassan Nasrallah, who publicly announced this earlier this year.

Solved it for you.

One major concern for Hezbollah is that the attack has exposed the identities of many of their operatives and commanders. The group has been struggling with information leaks and informants on the ground, a security gap that has helped Israel kill hundreds of Hezbollah militants since exchanges of fire began last October.

I am worried about the conflict across Israel's northern border further escalating.

That being said, the fact that Hezbollah's operations and communications have been profoundly and deeply and disrupted does not worry me at all.