It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The short version is that initial claims rose and continuing claims fell.

There is some additional context, as last week's numbers were revised up. 

Filings for US unemployment benefits rose last week after hovering near historic lows.

Initial claims increased by 9,000 to 209,000 in the week ended Aug. 8, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 202,000.

Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, fell to 1.78 million in the previous week.

The increase in filings could reflect typical summertime volatility in a period when seasonal employment patterns and the timing of holidays often affect the data. Economists will look for more than one week’s worth of data before reassessing the recent stability of the labor market.

Meanwhile,  Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation is holding steady, which makes it less likely that the Fed will raise rates at their next meeting.

U.S. producer prices were unchanged in July as goods prices fell and the cost of services increased marginally, bolstering financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates unchanged next month.

The report from the Labor Department on Thursday followed news on ​Wednesday of mild consumer inflation last month. The data led most economists to also expect moderate readings in the Personal Consumption Expenditures price indexes in July.

Damned if I know what the hell is going on right now.

 

Mom! History is Rhyming Again!

It looks like non-bank lenders are in the process of slowly collapsing.

Seems a lot like 2009.  Things move slowly, and then all at once. 

Private credit is showing increasing signs of stress, despite comments to the contrary from some of the largest fund managers that are trying to put a year of turmoil behind them.

Recent quarterly reports from funds overseen by the industry’s big players showed that loan health and investor returns are worsening, according to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal.

………

The percentage of defaulted loans in Blue Owl’s fund hit 2.8% in the second quarter, its highest level in at least five years. Nonperforming loans at the three other funds also hit five-year highs, exceeding levels reached in 2023 when the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates, squeezing the finances of corporate borrowers and triggering a wide stock and bond market selloff.

 Not only have the lessons of 1929 been forgotten, the lessons of 2009 have been forgotten.

First Friday

So, we have the July jobs report, and notwithstanding a stable unemployment rate,  with non-farm payrolls fell by 23.000, while the numbers for May and June were revised down by  66,000 and and 17,000 respectively.

So job numbers are falling, but the unemployment rate has remained steady because people have given up on looking for work.

US employers unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July and gains for the previous two months were revised down sharply by a combined 103,000 jobs, painting a weaker picture of the labor market than past data indicated.

The unemployment rate, however, held steady at 4.1%. Economists had projected an unchanged unemployment rate and 83,000 new jobs for the month.

The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics illustrates the continued summer slump in job growth amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Pressure has been mounting within the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to combat persistently high inflation, but July’s job report and its latest revisions may cool those expectations at the central bank’s next meeting.

July’s job losses were concentrated in local government education, with 50,000 jobs lost, and retail, which lost 19,000. The private sector, however, gained 30,000 jobs, with growth focused once again in healthcare.

Hourly earnings of all employees changed little over the past year, increasing by 3.2% compared to last year. Next week’s consumer pricing data will reveal whether these gains have kept pace with inflation.

Figures for May were revised to 63,000 jobs added, down from an initially reported 129,000 jobs, while figures for June dropped 37,000, to 20,000 jobs added. In total, job figures for May and June were revised down 103,000 jobs.

In June, the US added 57,000 jobs, about half of what economists had predicted, with most of the growth concentrated in healthcare and social assistance. The unemployment rate had also dropped to 4.2% in June, down from 4.3% in May, driven by 720,000 people leaving the workforce.

Even more concerning, to me at least is the fact that worker wages have fallen to an all time low as a percentage of GDP, meaning that any gains are not seen by the ordinary American.

U.S. workers again saw their slice of the U.S. economy slide to a record ‌low in the second quarter amid an ongoing ‌productivity boom that is producing output gains which are outpacing wage growth, ​the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday.

The so-called labor share of nominal gross domestic product, which BLS defines as the percentage of output that accrues to workers in the ‌form of compensation, fell ⁠to 52.9% in the second quarter from 53.7% in the first quarter.

That was the lowest ⁠since the series began in 1947, BLS said as it reported stronger-than-expected growth in second-quarter productivity.

Welcome to peonage, y'all.

It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

It's Thursday, and so time for the weekly unemployment report.  We have initial claims rising slightly and continuing claims falling slightly, along with a side dish of increased inflation and higher gas prices.

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose last week but layoffs remain in the historically healthy range of the past few years.

U.S. filings for jobless aid in the week ending July 25 rose by 9,000 to 197,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The previous week’s figure was revised up by 1,000 to 188,000 but remains the lowest in more than 50 years.

………

Following a 6.6% rise a day earlier, the price for a barrel of U.S. crude fell slightly more than 1% Thursday to $83.36 a barrel. Gas prices in the U.S. are also back up above $4 a gallon on average. Besides squeezing consumers’ budgets, it also hits businesses hard, especially those which are heavily dependent on fuel.

Also Thursday, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, PCE, came in at 3.7%, still well above its 2% target. On top of that, the government reported Thursday that the U.S. economy grew at an unexpectedly sluggish 1.5% pace in the April-June quarter.

………

The Labor Department’s report Thursday also showed that the four-week moving average of weekly jobless claims, which softens some of the weekly volatility, fell by 5,000 to 202,750.

The total number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the previous week ending July 18 was 1.78 million, a decline of 7,000 from the previous week.

Not a clue as to what the f%$# is going on here.

History Rhyming

We are seeing the financial merry go ground slowing down.

First, we have banks starting to call in loans from hedge funds as a result of concerns about the possible collapse of the AI bubble.

Wall Street banks have demanded more collateral from hedge funds in recent weeks as a rout in AI stocks accelerates and triggers heavy losses across several popular strategies.

Banks asked funds whose holdings are heavily concentrated in certain industries to provide additional collateral to keep their existing levels of leverage, according to four people familiar with the matter.

The collateral demands highlight the mounting fears on Wall Street about the scale and speed of the sell-off in AI stocks over the past fortnight, which has upended a rally in a sector favoured by many funds.

……… 

Banks build in protections when lending to hedge funds to make sure they do not incur losses in case the market turns negative. 

Meanwhile, on a slightly more personal scale, we are seeing a spike in the level of margin debt on the New York Stock Exchange.

When people start buying stocks with borrowed money at rates not seen since the dot-com bubble, someone usually gets hurt. Deutsche Bank is now waving the yellow flag.

The bank’s credit strategists, led by Steve Caprio, published a warning on July 24 that US margin debt has crossed the $1 trillion mark as of June 2025. That’s not just a round number for headlines. As a share of GDP, margin debt has now surpassed levels seen during the late-1990s tech mania and is closing in on the 2021 all-time high. 

The numbers behind the warning

Here’s what caught Deutsche Bank’s attention: NYSE margin debt jumped 18.5% from April to June 2025. That two-month sprint ranks as the fifth-fastest increase since 1998, a period that includes some of the most memorable market blowups in modern history.

Finally, and I'm going to quote the hed, "The bond market hasn’t been this calm since the dot-com bust and the financial crisis. History warns of a rude awakening." 

The spreads between high and low quality debt is shrinking, which tends to happen before a crash.

For all the current economic and geopolitical turmoil, the U.S. bond market is remarkably sanguine about the risks of a U.S. economic recession, even after oil’s big price jump.

To appreciate the bond market’s seemingly unconcerned behavior, consider the high-yield bond spread, which represents the additional compensation bond investors demand for incurring the extra risk that high-yield (“junk”) bonds represent relative to U.S. Treasurys.

The junk spread rises along with the risk of recession, when issuers of high-yield bonds become less likely to be able to repay, and it falls when the risk of an economic downturn is lower.

At the end of June, when a barrel of Brent crude was selling for $73, the junk spread stood at 2.75 percentage points. Currently, with Brent crude near $100 per barrel, the spread stands at 2.68 points. While a 7-basis-point decline is not in itself particularly meaningful, it is highly significant in light of the increased likelihood of economic distress to which the higher oil price leads.

In addition, we shouldn’t forget that oil’s recent spike comes on top of a private-credit market that has already been struggling. In its recent report on the state of private markets in 2026, MSCI writes that this market is facing problems even deeper than previously known: “Among loans in private-credit funds, 15.7% have been marked below 80% of principal — a rough threshold for distress — and more than 10% are now marked below 50% — a level typically associated with deep distress or risk of restructuring.”

MSCI’s report reflected the state of private markets at the end of 2025’s third quarter, the latest period for which data were available. Since then, conditions in the private-credit market have deteriorated even more, but the junk spread has narrowed rather than widened — to 2.68 percentage points from 2.80. 

Moreover, as you can see from the chart above, the junk spread is now lower than at any time since immediately prior to the 2008 global financial crisis. The only other time since 1997 that the spread was lower than today came near the top of the dot-com bubble. We don’t need to be reminded what happened after that. 

We are in for interesting times. 

It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 Rather than leading with the unemployment numbers, I think that we need to look at the news about home sales, where the soft pedal the the obvious conclusion.

The short version is that sales are falling largely in relatively inexpensive properties, so sales fall, and the average, and the median, home prices rise, because the bottom half has shut down.

It's arithmetic 101, and it mirrors what happened in 2008-9

U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly fell in June as tight inventory boosted house prices to a record high and the Middle East conflict kept mortgage rates elevated, pushing potential buyers to the sidelines.

The report from the ​National Association of Realtors on Thursday underscored the growing affordability hurdle faced by many young people pursuing the so-called American dream of homeownership. Still, economists expected the housing market to make a small contribution to economic ‌growth in the second quarter for the first time in more than a year.

………

Home sales dropped 2.4% last month to a ​seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home resales would climb to a rate of 4.20 million units. Home sales have been bouncing around a 4 million unit pace for years now, ​with NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun noting a similar trend happened during the 2008 Great Recession.

That being said, this week's unemployment report was not great either, with initial claims being basically flat, and continuing claims rose 8K to 1.814M.

Initial claims decreased by 2,000 to 215,000 in the week ended July 4, a period that included the Independence Day holiday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 217,000 applications.

Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, edged up to 1.81 million in the previous week, according to Labor Department Data released Thursday.

With oil prices spiking again and little prospect for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, this ain't good.

It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Because tomorrow is when the July 4 holiday is observed, in addition to the unemployment claims report, we also have the monthly jobs report a day early.

The short version if all of this, initial unemployment claims fell from slightly to 215K with continuing claims rose slightly to 1.814M.

More significantly was the monthly jobs report, where only 57K jobs were created, well under what is needed to account for workforce growth.

Additionally, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2% this was because workforce participation fell to a 5 year low. 

Neither of these are good economic news. 

It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

So, initial claims fell, continuing claims rose, and PCE inflation hit a 3 year high.

Notwithstanding the increasingly precarious deal between Iran and the United States to end hostilities, ships are still only trickling through the Strait of Hormuz.

The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, consistent with labor market resilience.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits ​dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 for the week ended June ‌20, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week.

The data included last Friday's Juneteenth public holiday, which could have contributed to ​part of the larger-than-expected decline. Claims are typically more complicated from the ​end of May through June when the school year ends, as ⁠some states allow non-teaching staff to file for unemployment benefits during the long ​school holidays. Seasonal factors, the model used by the government to strip out ​seasonal fluctuations from the data, do not always capture these moves.

………

The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.821 million during the week ended June 13, the claims ​report showed. The so-called ​continuing claims data ⁠covered the period during which the government surveyed households for June's unemployment rate.

Meanwhile in inflation land:

US consumer spending accelerated in May even as prices rose at the fastest pace in more than three years, suggesting Americans are powering through the fallout from the Iran war.

The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 4.1% from a year earlier, the most since April 2023, Bureau of Economic Analysis data out Thursday showed. Excluding food and energy, prices were up 3.4% from a year earlier.

Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 0.3% last month after stalling in April.

 

Look! A (Shadow) Bank Run!

That's a bank run When redemption requests from a private credit fund exceed 15% in a quarter, that's a bank run.

Apollo, and I would assume Cliffwater, and probably HPS and Blackstone are experiencing a run on their assets. (See graph)

To the degree that anyone is saying that it is not a bank run, particularly since Apollo is restricting redemptions, they are lying.

Investor redemption requests at Apollo’s flagship retail private credit fund surged to 17 per cent of the vehicle’s value in the second quarter, underscoring fears of falling returns and rising stress in debt markets.

The firm’s $15bn Apollo Debt Solutions fund pitched to wealthy individual investors reported roughly $2.4bn of withdrawal requests in the most recent period. The fund met less than 30 per cent of the withdrawals it faced in the quarter, capping redemptions at 5 per cent of the value of the vehicle.

The Apollo fund, which has an investment portfolio worth nearly $26bn, had been hit with withdrawal requests of 11 per cent in the first quarter.

The rising withdrawal requests at the fund signal that the broader investor exodus from private credit has not abated, even as public markets have rallied and a sell-off in loans to private equity-backed software companies has moderated.

The funds have been a significant fundraising source for private investment groups, offering lucrative fees for the asset managers. However, private credit has faced scrutiny over its lending to the software industry, given the risks companies face from advances in AI.

Investors have sought to pull nearly $15bn from nine major funds tracked by the FT in the second quarter. The funds, which manage roughly $200bn across their investment portfolios, have met less than 40 per cent of the withdrawal requests.

………

The Apollo fund, like most of the vehicles operated by its competitors, is relying on a gating mechanism that allows the investment manager to restrict redemptions when they eclipse a 5 per cent threshold.

I'm waiting for lawsuits from the investors in these funds, sooner rather than later.

This sounds a lot like 2008, or 1929. 

History Rhyming

So, in addition to seeing localized housing price declines, we now see housing starts falling to a 6 year low.

It smells like 2008. 

May housing starts fell to the lowest level since the pandemic disrupted construction six years ago, the U.S. Census Bureau announced Tuesday. Builder confidence has dropped recently because of higher material and financing costs.

The change threatens to exacerbate housing shortages and disrupt recent progress in most states toward building enough new housing for new residents.

Starts were down to an annual rate of 1.17 million, the lowest since April 2020, and an 8.5% drop since May 2025. The drop since last year was especially severe in the South, down 15%, and the West, down 11%, but the Northeast saw a 19% increase and the Midwest increased 6%.

These numbers vary from region to region, but it's more like they are taking turns.

It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

We have the new weekly unemployment numbers out, and initial claims are down marginally, continuing claims are up marginally, and tepid hiring.

For me, the most important part of the unemployment statistics is that I am no longer a part of them.  I finished my first full week at my new job. (it's a 9/80 schedule, and tomorrow is the off Friday)

The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, but remained at slightly higher levels, suggesting some moderation in the pace of job growth in June.

 Economists largely shrugged off the report from the Labor Department ​on Thursday, with some pointing out that the recent elevation in claims was likely due to seasonal distortions related to the end of the school year. They viewed the labor market ‌as remaining stable enough for the Federal Reserve to focus on stamping out inflation, stoked by the Iran war.

The U.S. central bank on Wednesday kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range, but updated quarterly projections showed policymakers expected to raise borrowing costs this year amid growing concerns about inflation.

………

Initial claims ​for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 226,000 for the week ended June 13, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast ⁠225,000 claims for the latest week. Claims had increased for three straight weeks, pushing to the upper end of their 190,000-230,000 range for this year.

………

Though the survey's measure of factory jobs swung to positive territory this month, "most firms continued to report no changes in employment overall." The lack of hiring was evident in the weekly claims report. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, ⁠a proxy for ​hiring, increased 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.81 million during the week ended June 6, the claims report showed. 

Damned if I know what the f%$# is going on here.

Still Sucks

I am, of course, referring to the consumer confidence numbers, which rose marginally but remain close to last month's all time low.

We are in a recession.

Consumer sentiment improved to begin June, according to the University of Michigan’s monthly survey, as a retreat in gasoline prices boosted Americans’ economic spirits.

The Michigan consumer-sentiment index bounced off its all-time low set in May to rise to 48.9 in the initial June reading, from 44.8 a month earlier. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had been expecting a reading of 46.

A final June figure will be published later this month, based on additional interviews.
“Lower-income consumers exhibited a particularly strong sentiment increase, consistent with the fact that gasoline comprises a larger share of their budgets,” said Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director. She said sentiment overall remains downbeat, with concerns focused on a recent pickup in inflation.

 

It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Both initial and continuing unemployment claims rose last week, initial claims from 225,000 to 229,000, (highest since February) and continuing claims rose from 1.780 million to 1.795 million claims.

Not awful, but not good either. 

US initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to the highest since February, potentially reflecting the usual volatility around school summer breaks and holidays.

Initial claims increased by 4,000 to 229,000 in the week ended June 6, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 220,000 applications.

Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, also rose, to 1.8 million in the previous week.

This is not enough for the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates next week.

Yesterday Was The Monthly Jobless Report

The numbers are quite good, 172K new jobs in the non-farm payroll and was unemployment unchanged at 4.3%.

What is notable is where the job growth occurred, largely leisure and hospitality and local and state government employment. 

The former is driven by the World Cup being in the United States, though it increasingly looks like this will be a bit of a bust, because foreigners do not want to be subject to the tender mercies of Customs and Border Patrol or ICE.

I'm not sure were the local government pickup is coming from, though a part of it could be from former federal civil servants finding new jobs. 

These numbers make a rate hike by the Federal Reserve almost certain.

I think that the analysis from the CEPR is a good summary:

• Jobs are growing far faster than the breakeven rate
• Wages are not keeping pace with inflation
• Workers are still reluctant to leave jobs
• Job-killing AI is not visible in the data 
• Self-employment is lagging  

The last one is not at all surprising.  When the social safety net is reduced, striking out on one's own as an entrepreneur becomes far more risky.

Of course, all of the above is predicated on accepting that the numbers are real, so YMMV. 

It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Claims and planned layoffs


Labor costs and productivity


The state of the economy is ………So, he have a spike in initial unemployment claims, though continuing claims, which are actually from a week earlier, fell.

Planned layoffs remain low, though they are up a bit, and productivity rose slightly, but wages did not keep up with inflation.

Meanwhile, I get serious 2008 vibes from the fall in factory construction jobs as well as the increasing exodus of realtors from the profession.

The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, touching their highest level in four months, but the underlying trend remained consistent with a stable labor market.

Economists shrugged off the rise in weekly jobless claims reported by the Labor Department on Thursday as volatility related to ​last Monday's Memorial Day holiday. Claims tend to rise around public holidays. They said there were no signs yet the Middle East conflict was having a noticeable impact on the labor market, ‌though uncertainty was growing.

………

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 225,000 for the week ended May 30, the ​highest level since the first week of February. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 213,000 claims for the latest week. The four-week moving average of claims, which irons out week-to-week volatility, increased only 6,500 to 214,750.

………

Layoffs remain low by historical standards, despite high-profile job cuts by technology firms related to the adoption of artificial intelligence. U.S.-based employers announced 97,006 ​job cuts in May, about 39% of them in the technology sector, a separate report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas showed on Thursday. That was up 16% from April.

………

Still, planned job cuts rose only 3% compared to the same period last year. Though employers have not responded with mass layoffs to rising shortages and inflation stemming from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, now in its fourth month, economists said that could change, the longer the conflict drags on.
The Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, on Tuesday showed hiring decreased and layoffs fell in April, suggesting the increase in payrolls that month was due to lower layoffs. A stable labor market allows the Federal Reserve to focus on inflation. Financial markets expect the U.S. central bank to keep its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range into 2027.

U.S. stocks opened lower. The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields fell.
A third report from the ​Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics showed worker productivity growth ​slowed faster than initially thought in the first ⁠quarter, but the underlying trend remained strong and a boost is expected from businesses adopting artificial intelligence for many roles.
Nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a downwardly revised 0.3% annualized rate last quarter. That was the slowest since the first quarter of 2025. Productivity was previously estimated to have risen at a 0.8% pace last quarter. Economists ​had expected productivity growth would be revised down to a 0.5% pace.

As to factory construction:

Yesterday, the Commerce Department released data on construction in April. It showed that factory construction is continuing to fall. In nominal terms, it dropped another 1.2 percent in April from its March level. Adjusting for inflation, the decline would be roughly 1.3 percent.

Factory construction has been on a downward path since the third quarter of 2024. It is now down by close to 27 percent from its recent peak.

 As to realtors:

The slowest housing market in decades is stretching into its fourth year, and even real-estate agents who made it this far are reaching a breaking point. Most of them are independent contractors and get paid when a deal closes. With fewer sales to go around and homes taking longer to sell, more agents are ditching the industry or finding second jobs.

……… 

The downturn is also hitting mortgage-loan officers and the many other industries reliant on home sales, from appraisers and photographers to appliance manufacturers.

………  

The National Association of Realtors had 1.4 million members as of April, down from a peak of 1.6 million in October 2022. 

 This seems to me to be a Wile E. Coyote moment economy.

It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Unemployment

Inmflation>So, both initial and continuing unemployment claims rose last week, though only by a bit.

More significantly, inflation continues to spike, and consumer spending and GDP for the last quarter was adjusted down which means that Trump's new pet Fed Chairman is likely not going to convince the rest of the FOMC to cut rates.

US inflation increased at its fastest pace in three years in April, driven by higher energy prices amid the war with Iran, and cementing economists’ views that the Federal Reserve could hold interest rates unchanged well into next year.

Surging price pressures are eroding household income and could restrain consumer spending and economic growth this quarter. Income at the disposal of households after adjusting for inflation dropped for a third straight month in April, other data showed on Thursday. Given the soaring cost of living, Americans are growing frustrated with Donald Trump’s handling of the economy. A Reuters/Ipsos survey last week showed the president’s approval rating fell to nearly its lowest level since he returned to the White House, hit by a drop in support among Republicans. Trump won the 2024 presidential election in large part because of his promise to lower inflation.

The government on Thursday also revised down the growth pace in consumer spending in the first quarter to 1.4% from the previously reported 1.6% annualized rate. Overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth was slashed to a 1.6% rate from the 2.0% pace estimated last month.

So it's beginning to look like Stagflation, and elections are 5¼ months away.

It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ (On Friday)

So, initial unemployment claims are up slightly but remain low, and continuing claims fell: 

Applications for US unemployment benefits rebounded slightly after falling in the previous week to near the lowest levels in decades, signaling layoffs remain muted despite recent job-cut announcements.

Initial claims rose by 10,000 to 200,000 in the week ended May 2, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 205,000 applications.

Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, fell to 1.77 million in the previous week, a new two-year low.

Also, the monthly jobs numbers came out. And notwithstanding claims that it is exceptional, the number is actually rather anemic, with about 115,000 jobs added to the work force.

The U.S. job market blew past expectations again in April, buoyed by gains across industries including retail, transportation and warehousing, and healthcare. The results were a sign that the labor market remained resilient so far in the face of the Iran war.

The numbers

The American economy added 115,000 jobs in April, the Labor Department said Friday, far exceeding expectations.

That was down from a net gain of 185,000 in March. But it was much better than the 55,000 jobs that analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected to see for April.

The unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 4.3%, as economists had expected.

Not a bloody clue as to that the f%$# is going on here. 

What I do know is that we are about 2-4 weeks into when ships stopped at the Strait of Hormuz should have arrived at their destinations and that oil reserves fell off of a cliff in April  

Global oil reserves plunged at a record pace in April, as the conflict in the Middle East strains supplies and raises the risk of a further sharp jump in prices ahead of the summer travel season.

Stockpiles of crude fell by nearly 200mn barrels, or 6.6mn barrels a day, estimated S&P Global Energy, even as higher prices triggered a collapse in demand of about 5mn b/d, the sharpest ever fall outside of the Covid-19 pandemic.

That fall in economic demand is driven by a fall in economic activity.

Things are going to get a lot worse. 

 

It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I is confuzzled We have a busy Thursday, first with initial unemployment claims falling to a 57 year low and continuing claims fell to a 2 year low.

This makes no sense at all to me, though being recently unemployed may effect my perception of all of this: (Or maybe the Trump administration is just falsifying the data ) 

Given the announcements of large layoffs, this makes no sense to me.

Applications for US unemployment benefits plunged to the lowest level in decades, a sign that job-cut announcements have not yet meaningfully translated into layoffs.

Initial claims fell by 26,000 to 189,000 in the week ended April 25. according to Labor Department data released Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 212,000 applications.

Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, dropped to 1.79 million in the previous week, the lowest in two years.

Meanwhile, it appears that we have good GDP numbers, but that makes sense when you consider that this statistic includes all of the money being set on fire by the AI bubble.

US economic growth accelerated at the start of the year, bolstered by a massive AI-driven upswing in business investment.

Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product increased an annualized 2% in the first quarter after the longest-ever federal government shutdown limited growth in the closing months of 2025, according to an initial estimate issued Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Consumer spending, which comprises about two-thirds of economic activity, increased at a better-than-expected 1.6% rate, driven by demand for services including healthcare and financial services. Business outlays on equipment and structures advanced 10.4%, the fastest pace in almost three years and supported by rapid investment in artificial intelligence.

Finally, inflation seems to be heating up in a big way.

The PCE price index, which the Fed favors for its inflation yardstick, spiked by 0.66% in March from February (+8.3% annualized), the worst spike since mid-2022 at the peak of the inflation surge.

Inflation has been accelerating since mid-2025. In each of the three months of December, January, and February – so before the war and before the energy price spike – the PCE price index had already surged by 4% to 4.6% annualized (black circle in the chart). The March spike is on top of that acceleration (blue line). And it was energy, but not just energy.

Year-over-year, the PCE price index jumped by 3.5%, the worst since May 2023 (red line). The Fed’s target for the year-over-year measure is 2.0%, and PCE inflation has been moving away from it relentlessly for the past 10 months, and the energy price spike came on top of it.

Whatever is going on, it ain't good.

It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

And not that much happened.  (I'm gonna be a part of next week's claims data)

Initial claims rose by 6,000 to 214,000 and continuing claims rise by 12,000 to 1.821 million.

The consensus is that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady. 

Hell if I know what is going on. 

It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

So, initial claims are down, continuing claims are up, and I am about 24 hours away from becoming an unemployment statistic.

F%$# this.  I need some quality time with my cats.