Thoughts on Syria

I don't have much in the way of insights beyond the obvious, that frozen conflicts are a recipe for disaster.

In the short term, and by that I mean in the next 6 months, I would expect to see significant refugee flows (from the mid 5 figures to the low 6 figures) from the Syrian Alewite community, which numbers about 2½ million in Syria.

They, specifically the Assad family, have been in charge of Syria for over 50 years, and the new government will be dominated by Salafi Jihadists, and as such, they consider Shiah and Alewite religions to be apostasy.

Also, there are 50 years of scores to settle, which may push migration even higher.