28 July 2024

Just Great


Map of the Region

There has been a missile strike in the Golan Heights killing 12 children playing football (Soccer) in the town of Majdal Shams.

Israel has accused Hamas of launching the rocket, allegedly an Iranian built Falaq 1 unguided artillery rocket, that caused the deaths, and Hamas has denied any involvement in the strike. 

The Falaq 1 is basically an Iranian version of the Soviet BM-24 rocket, a successor to the WWII era Katyusha rocket, first produced in 1947, with a range of about 10km.

As can be seen from the map, this rocket could reach Majdal Shams from either Lebanon or Syria.  (Crowded neighborhood)

Hezbollah could have launched the rocket and missed their intended target, or someone else could have launched the rocket, which is rather simple to operate, just set azimuth and elevation, and then shoot.

While I think that it is unlikely that Hamas would deliberately strike Majdal Shams, it is overwhelmingly Druze, and doing so would cause trouble with Lebanese Druze, who constitute about 5% of Lebanon's population.

If someone deliberately targeted the town, my money would be groups affiliated with, or derived from, either Daesh or al Qaeda, as both groups have exhibited extreme hostility towards non-Sunni Muslim communities.

I don't know what is going to happen as a result, but I am pretty certain that it will not be good.

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