12 July 2024

Economic Update

Rather surprisingly, initial unemployment claims fell more than expected, down 17,000 as versus the 2,000 forecast, with continuing claims fell by 4,000 to 1.85 million. 

On the other hand, month over month core inflation fell to 0.1%,  about 1.2%, well below the 2.0% Fed target.

The Fed wants more unemployment, which this weeks claims numbers do not support, but it has also stated publicly that it is targeting a 2% YoY inflation rate, which appears to be in reach.

My money is on the Fed not lowering rates, even if inflation continues to drop, because f%#$ the American worker is what real men do.

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