04 April 2024

It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


No trend that I can see
And for the first time in at least a month, initial unemployment claims were higher than forecast, rising by 9,000 to 221,000, 7,000 more than the consensus forecast of 214,000.

Continuing claims, however, fell by 19,000 to 1.79 million, better than the consensus forecast of 1.81 million.

In the middle of all this, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell made vague comments about interest rates, which markets took as a sign that rates are more likely than not to be lowered at the next meeting of the FOMC:

………

On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell joined Stanford's Business, Government, and Society Forum to discuss the economy and monetary policy with Google CEO Sundhar Pinchai.

The discussion comes after the Fed maintained its interest rate level in its most recent decision in March. While the Federal Open Market Committee forecast three interest rate cuts in December, Powell said on Wednesday that it'll take more data for the Fed to feel confident enough to implement that relief.

"On inflation, it is too soon to say whether the recent readings represent more than just a bump," Powell said, referring to the slight increase in inflation to 3.2% in March.

"We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2%," he said. "Given the strength of the economy and progress on inflation so far, we have time to let the incoming data guide our decisions on policy."

What this all means?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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