This Probably Explains the Troubles in France

Food Consumption in France

It turns out, at least according to L’Institut national de la statistique  et des études économiques, (INSEE) the french bureau that collects the statistics, has collected data showing that French food consumption has fallen by 17%.  (This is in non-inflation adjusted Euros, so it's actually worse than that.)

This is an economic collapse of living standards in Fance, with real literal hunger.

Stating the obvious, something like this causes riots:

In the spring of 1775 a wave of riots, approximately 300 in total, engulfed the Kingdom of France. The protests did not subside until the army had been deployed and hundreds of rioters arrested. These events became known as the “Flour War” because the riots were precipitated by a sharp increase in grain prices, which were then passed on to French consumers in the form of higher food prices.

While the Flour War seems like ancient history, it may well have something to tell us about the riots taking place in France over the last few days. Of course, the immediate cause of this unrest was the shooting of a teenager by police. Yet it follows on from smaller riots this year, first in response to President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reforms, and then to the building of reservoirs in the west of the country.

………

The result of these rising costs has been a decline in French food consumption of nearly 17%, the largest such national decline since the data started in the early 1980s. Up until now, drawdowns — that is, peak-to-trough declines — in food consumption have never exceeded 4%. And even when they hit this level, they quickly reverted.

………

What is the cause of rising food prices? Most likely, the finger can be pointed at fertiliser shortages. The World Economic Forum notes that Russia and Belarus are among the world’s largest sources of mineral fertilisers. [Also rising energy prices from the war and the sabotage of the Nord Stream Pipelines] When the West undertook sanctions against Russia, it tried to create carve-outs for some fertiliser products, but the red tape has meant that imports have fallen precipitously, while fertiliser prices have spiked. Hence the rising cost of food.

It is these dynamics that are creating the febrile situation we see across Europe today. France has a history of social unrest, and its ethnic tensions are starker than those found elsewhere in Europe. But the more things change, the more they stay the same. Rising food prices and falling food consumption are still an extremely effective predictor of riots and social unrest.

It should be noted that any reduction in food consumption because of cost will be disproportionately fall upon the less well off, who spend a greater proportion of their wages on food.

If Macron does not want to have a close personal relationship with Madame la Guillotine, perhaps he should learn how to listen.