12 January 2023

Thursday, and Jobless Claims Ain't the Lede

Yeah, inflation does seem to have moderated
So, it seems that Inflation is way down in December.

The Consumer Price Index been way down for the past 6 months, and the year over year has fallen to 6.5%, and for the less volatile core CPI has fallen to 5.7%, and the 3 month rolling average of core CPI has fallen to an annual rate of 3.1%.

One would expect the Federal Reserve to moderate their rate increases, but they are professional sadists, so I expect another 50 basis points (½%) at they next meeting.

I would note Larry Summers' statement that this would require a jump in unemployment is wrong, and that inflation appears to be, "Transient," ironically enough.

We did, however, also have last week's unemployment report, with initial claims falling slightly, down 1000 to 205,000, and continuing claims fell 63,000 to 1.63 million.

A lot of what happens in the next few months will depend on how securely the Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee is moored in reality.

I am not optimistic about this.


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