We have the latest unemployment numbers, and initial unemployment claims fell by 12,000 to 214,000, while continuing claims rose to 1.39 million from 1.36 million.
I still think that we are heading toward a recession, particularly since the Federal Reserve has announced its intention to keep raising rates:
U.S. worker filings for jobless benefits fell last week, a sign layoffs remain low in a tight labor market.
Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, decreased to a seasonally adjusted 214,000 last week from 226,000 the week before, the Labor Department said Thursday. Claims are up from earlier this year but remain near their prepandemic 2019 weekly average of 218,000, when the labor market was also historically strong.
The four-week moving average for jobless claims, which smooths out weekly volatility, rose slightly to 212,250 last week.
Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people seeking ongoing unemployment benefits, increased to 1.39 million in the week ended Oct. 8 from 1.36 million a week earlier. Continuing claims are reported with a one-week lag.
The overall U.S. jobs market remains on strong footing, but has cooled in recent months. Employers added 263,000 jobs in September, a slowdown from earlier in the year, while the share of people working or looking for a job fell. Job openings declined in August to their lowest level since summer of 2021. But many businesses have continued to hire, citing struggles with staffing shortages.
House building and house sales are falling off of a cliff, and there are a whole bunch of derivatives at the Wall Street Casino that are likely to do so as well.
Holiday sales should be a tell.
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