Economics Update

Grim news out of Europe, with Euro zone GDP collapsing by 2.5% in the first quarter...That's a quarterly decline, not a year over year decline, and largest decline for the Euro zone in at least 13 years. Before that there were no Euro zone statistics. (It should be noted that the YoY number is 4.6%, which is merely scary, as opposed to a terrifying double digit annual decline)

Not surprisingly, this pushed the dollar up relative to the Euro.

As bad as this was, it was even worse in Eastern Europe, because their recent growth was driven by exports and foreign investments looking for high returns, which are both gone.

Again using the quarterly numbers, Hungary -6.4%, Slovakia -5.4%, the Czech Republic -3.4, and Romania -6.4%.

A lot of this was driven by Germany's contraction, which was among the largest in Western Europe, because they have a Hooverite as Chancellor, which was -3.8%, the biggest decline in Germany since the end of WWII.

Seriously we are talking end of the world numbers, he said, citing experts:

Dr Ray Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Exactly.
Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...
Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!

Of course you have to go to Russia for a really scary number, -9.5% in the first quarter....Annualize that.

The news from the US was relatively mild, with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey showing only a modest decline. The index was up, but still below zero, so it still indicates contraction, and the Fed's report on capacity utilization showed a marked decline.

We are still seeing the largest year over year decline in consumer prices since June 1955, but month to month indicates that there was no change, which eases deflationary concerns...A bit.


In banking, we are seeing further signs of easing with both the LIBOR and TED spread falling.

The easing of credit may be why the FDIC is walking away from its plan to guarantee 10 year bank bonds, though there are also indications of push-back from Treasury.

Meanwhile, the horrible GDP numbers from Europe, and the stronger dollar drove oil down, though retail gasoline is moving in the opposite direction, up 12% over the past 17 days.