06 March 2025

Maybe They Don't Like the Roach Motel Model of Defense Procurement


Lockheed-Martin's F-35 Business Model

It appears that Lockheed-Martin has been removed from the running for the US Navy's next generation fighter.

My guess would be is that the US Navy has not been satisfied with the F-35, and I don't think that it has much to do with aerodynamic performance, but the fact that Lockheed developed a system where it is impossible for a military service to operate the aircraft on its own.

There is a web of IP and software that requires the aircraft to phone home on a daily basis, and much of the work can only be done by L-M, all while the defense contractor collects its vig.

This sucks for the taxpayer, but it sucks even worse for the Navy, where they may be operating in the middle of nowhere, and they have to wait for an overpriced Lockheed technician to fly out to fix this.

This is a John Deere tractor on an aircraft carrier 1000 miles from land. 

I would note that this is just supposition on my part, but it seems to me to be the most likely reason for this decision, particularly since Lockheed still appears to be in the running for the USAF's next fighter aircraft:

Lockheed Martin is out of the running for the Navy’s sixth-generation fighter jet program, known as Next Generation Air Dominance or F/A-XX, Breaking Defense has learned.

A source with knowledge of the program told Breaking Defense that Lockheed submitted a bid to the Navy, but the proposal did not satisfy the service’s criteria. The company is now no longer proceeding with the bid. The Navy previously told Breaking Defense in November that the service was evaluating proposals, but it is unclear when Lockheed was knocked out of the competition. 

………

Lockheed, which cornered the market on fifth-generation fighters through its ubiquitous F-35 Joint Strike Fighter and the F-22 Raptor, still has a shot to build a sixth-generation jet through the Air Force’s separate fighter competition, also known as Next Generation Air Dominance, where the company is facing off against Boeing. 

It is possible that the Navy lacked confidence in L-M's ability to smoothly integrate their new aircraft onto a carrier deck, there were problems with both the F-35 and the S-3 in this regard.

Given the history of Boeing (McDonnell-Douglas) and Northrop (Grumman), the USN may be more confident in the ability of these companies to execute, but given the stress that the Navy is placing on open architecture, my guess is that operational autonomy is what is driving this decision.

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