The North Korean Deployment to the Ukraine

A lot of people are looking at this as a sign of desperation by Russia, but the best evidence that the situation is reverse.  Pyongyang is looking at this deployment as payback for the materiel it has supplied Moscow during the conflict.a

The DPRK's military has not had meaningful modern battlefield experience in many decades, and they are looking to learn by participating in this conflict.

Truth be told, this lack of experience in modern near-peer conflict could be said to apply to almost any military in world, with the possible exception of India and Pakistan.

Most other conflict has been some variant of colonial or counter-insurgency conflict, what Captain Edmund Blackadder would describe as a, "Viciously sharp slice of mango," type of war.

Ever since the possibility of North Korea assisting Russia in its war effort emerged in the Summer of 2022, quantifying exactly what that would look like and its downstream effects have been challenging. Now, as indications point to North Korean troops wading into the direct fighting, one aspect of this major geopolitical shift beyond how it impacts Ukraine couldn’t be more clear — North Korea getting real-world combat experience on a modern battlefield alongside a well-versed ally is a very unwelcome development for South Korea and the United States.

The experience aspect of North Korea’s involvement in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is one we have stressed repeatedly, but it’s often overlooked, with the focus being more on the immediate impact an influx of troops could have for the Kremlin’s cause. This is understandable as Russia has experienced heavy losses and Ukraine has as well. Any major infusion of able bodies into the fighting from an external source could erode either side’s ability to compete on the battlefield.

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With one of the largest standing armies on the planet and the need for cash, energy, and technological know-how for weapons development, North Korea has excess supply to offer when it comes to exporting fighting men in exchange for what it needs and wants. Add security guarantees from the world’s largest nuclear power and technological assistance in advanced weapons manufacturing and it’s clear that Kim Jong Un has every reason to provide Russia with whatever manpower it thinks it needs to turn the tide on the battlefield.

But the fact that under such an arrangement North Korea also gets real-world combat experience is an offering Russia could not provide the Hermit Kingdom during a time of relative peace. North Korea’s isolated forces could use this experience badly.

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The massive and as ‘realistic-as-possible’ combat exercises South Korea executes alongside its American partners are far more advanced and actually combat representative than anything North Korea is capable of emulating. This is on top of the relatively poor standards of combat training for North Korean regular forces as a whole. So, being able to train with Russian forces and then fight in a real war with the threat of things like standoff guided weaponry, kamikaze drones, electronic warfare, night vision and thermal optics, and so much more, against a very battle-hardened enemy ground force, is arguably a priceless opportunity. The fact that the Ukrainian battlefield has direct similarities with what would exist during a war on the Peninsula is an even bigger plus.

 Foreign and military relations are confusing, neh?