It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

So, not a great week according to the unemployment stats.

Initial claims rose by 20,000, about double forecasts, to 243,000, while continuing claims rose by 20K to 1.867 million.

Now, part of this is the impact of Hurricane Beryl, and part of this is due to automobile plant shut-downs for the new model year, but those are accounted for in the forecasts that were blown past.

The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, but that did not signal a material shift in the labor market amid temporary automobile plant closures and disruptions from Hurricane Beryl.

The weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department on Thursday, however, suggested that it was getting harder for the unemployed to land new jobs relative to last year. Unemployment rolls swelled to the highest level in more than 2-1/2 years in the first week of July, in line with a recent increase in the jobless rate.

A loosening labor market and ebbing inflation position the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, with financial markets anticipating additional cuts in November and December.
"Taking a step back from the noise in the data, jobless claims have drifted higher since the start of the year," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. "We think the rise so far is consistent with a cooling labor market that is characterized more by a slower pace of hiring rather than by higher layoffs."

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 243,000 for the week ended July 13, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 230,000 claims for the latest week.

The rise pushed claims back to a 10-month high touched in early June and right to the upper end of their 194,000-243,000 range for the year. It wiped out the drop in the prior week, which was attributed to difficulties adjusting the data around holidays, like the U.S. Independence Day.

In addition, auto makers typically shut down assembly plants starting the July 4 week to retool for new models. But the shutdown schedules are different for every manufacturer, which can throw off the model that the government uses to smooth out the data for seasonal fluctuations. Plant shutdowns were also more concentrated this year relative to prior years.

……….

Unadjusted claims jumped 36,824 to 279,032 last week. Filings surged 11,537 in Texas, likely boosted by Hurricane Beryl. They advanced 6,917 in California.

There were sizeable increases in Georgia, Missouri, New York, Pennsylvania and South Carolina. Applications also rose in Kentucky, Kansas, Alabama and Ohio. Most of these states have motor vehicle assembly plants. The increases more than offset declines New Jersey, Indiana and Massachusetts.

The Fed looks to be getting the recession that they want.