Thursday Jobless Report time

Initial claims continued their slow rise while continuing claims hit a 2 year high.

So the Fed is getting their slowdown that they so desperately wanted:

Recurring applications for US unemployment benefits jumped to the highest in about two years, adding to evidence of a cooling labor market.

Continuing claims, which are a proxy for the number of people receiving unemployment benefits, rose to 1.93 million in the week ended Nov. 18, higher than all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. This figure has climbed since September, suggesting out-of-work Americans are finding it more difficult to secure new employment.

Meanwhile initial jobless claims rose by 7,000 to 218,000 in the week ended Nov. 25, a period that included the Thanksgiving holiday. Given the figures tend to be particularly volatile around holidays, the four-week moving average offers a clearer picture of the trend in applications. That measure was little changed last week, according to a Labor Department report.

At the same time, consumer spending weakened and inflation slowed in October, providing more indications that the Fed over-corrected:

Americans slowed their spending in October and inflation continued cooling as the economy downshifted into fall after a fast-paced summer.

Consumer spending rose 0.2% in October, down sharply from a 0.7% rise in September, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The October reading marked the slowest increase since May. The combination of ebbing income growth, high interest rates and prices, dwindling pandemic savings and the resumption of student-loan payments is eroding Americans’ ability to keep boosting their spending as briskly as they did through the summer, economists say.

Inflation has cooled markedly this year, likely bringing the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate increases to an end. Price growth as measured by the personal-consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, remained mild in October.

Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy items, were up 3.5% from a year ago. They rose 2.5% at a six-month annualized rate, down from 4.5% in the six months through April, a dramatic improvement.

There won't be any rate cuts until 2025, at least, because to do so would be seen as an admission of error, and the Fed would sooner slit their own bellies that be seen as admitting that they were in error.