14 October 2023

We Are Unbelievably Screwed

While the melting of the polar ice caps is worrying, particularly for polar bells and their ilk, but the true threats dome from the ice fields on Greenland and Antarctica, which, unlike the north polar regions, are supporeteed by land, and so will raise sea levels ……… A lot.

So the news that 40% of Antarctic coastal ice shelves are shrinking more quickly than previously observed is very worrying.

More than 40 percent of Antarctica’s ice shelves have dwindled in the past 25 years, potentially accelerating sea level rise by allowing more land ice to flow into the ocean, according to new research released Thursday. The extent of ice shelves thinning is more widespread than previously thought, the results show, providing increasing evidence that the continent is feeling the effects of higher global temperatures.

“The surprising result to me was just how many ice shelves are deteriorating that substantially and continuously,” said Benjamin Davison, lead author of the study. “Lots of ice shelves, not just the big ones, are steadily losing mass over time with no sign of recovery.”

………

Analyzing more than 100,000 satellite images from 1997 to 2021, Davison and his colleagues found that 71 of the 162 ice shelves surrounding Antarctica reduced in volume. Almost 50 lost more than 30 percent of their initial mass during those years. The team also found 29 shelves gained mass during the study period and an additional 62 did not change mass significantly.

………

“We’re just seeing them get smaller and smaller and smaller for 25 years ... often with no sign of any advance or growth in that time,” Davison said. “That’s not consistent with what we expect from the natural cycle of an ice shelf.”

Every time that there is a new analysis of the data it gets worse.

Even if we successfully reduce emissions to zero in the near future, the melts will continue, and ocean rice will be measured in meters, not millimeters.

On the bright side, it looks like the Port of Baltimore will be just down the street from me.

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