Inflation continues to moderate, with a month over month rate of 0.2% for the second month in a row, very close to the Federal Reserve's goal.
I expect them to continue to raise rates though because there is no upside for the institution to back off at the right time. As I have noted before, creating a recession and mass unemployment, even when it is not necessary, serves the interest of the institution.
It serves to reinforce their perceived credibility and status.
Price pressures continued cooling last month, fresh inflation figures showed, likely deterring the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates at its September meeting.
The consumer-price index, a measure of goods and services prices across the economy, rose a mild 0.2% in July, the same as in June, the Labor Department said Thursday. Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy categories, also increased just 0.2% in both months, extending a broader slowdown in price pressures.
The figures led to 3.2% annual inflation in July, up from 3% in June. Annual core inflation ticked down to 4.7% in July from June’s 4.8%.
The pickup in annual inflation was influenced by what happened in July of 2022, which serves as the basis for comparison. Economists don’t expect the annual rate of inflation to slow much more this year in part because of so-called base effects.
By base effects, they mean that the old number are still pushing up the current numbers.
Also, it's jobless Thursday, and initial unemployment claims rose by 21,000 to 248,000, a 5 week high, and the the 4-week moving average rose as well, though continuing claims fell slightly.
The unemployment numbers are likely to get worse if I am right about the Fed.
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