12 May 2023

Arsonist Warns of Fire Risk

The Federal Reserve is noting that there significant increase in stresses in financial institutions caused by ……… the Federal Reserve ……… raising interest rates.

Well, inflation is trending down, how about a pause in interest rate hikes? 

Naah, that would make too much sense:

A Federal Reserve report warned that banks’ concerns about slower growth could lead them to make fewer loans, accelerating an economic downturn, and highlighted commercial real estate as an area of heightened risk that will draw more scrutiny from bank examiners.

The US central bank’s financial stability report released Monday is the first since four regional lenders collapsed. The episodes prompted weeks of wild trading in bank stocks and forced regulators to take a series of extraordinary steps that included backstopping all depositors at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

“Concerns about the economic outlook, credit quality, and funding liquidity could lead banks and other financial institutions to further contract the supply of credit to the economy,” the Fed said in its report. “A sharp contraction in the availability of credit would drive up the cost of funding for businesses and households, potentially resulting in a slowdown in economic activity.”

The report, which isn’t a forecast, described bank funding as relatively stable on the whole, though it pointed to numerous liquidity risks in other corners of the financial markets.

Even if financial institutions and business planned for increases in interest rates, there was no way for them to foresee that rates would be raised this quickly or this much. 

I'm not even suggesting reversing course, just to coast for a few months, and see what happens.

The technical term for what the Fed Open Market Committee is doing with interest rates is, "Dick swinging."

Stop.

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