19 January 2023

It's Thursday, So

We have the weekly jobs report, with initial unemployment claims falling by 15,000 to 190,000, the lowest number in about 9 months, and the 4-week moving average fell as well.

I still think that the seasonal adjustments need to be adjusted to the new post-Covid normal, so YMMV.

More significantly, continuing claims ticked up by 20,000 to 1.65 million.

Meanwhile, the Fed's Beige Book, a survey of business sentiment, came out, and businesses are getting more pessimistic, which would imply a reduction in capital investment and inventories, which would slow the economy.

Retail sales fell 1.1% from November, though they still increased 6.6% year over year, which continues to point to a slowdown as well.

On the good news side, producer prices rose by the slowest pace in over a year, which hopefully means that the Fed will be less inclined to raise rates.

My not-particularly-educated guess is that we will see a depression in the next 2-3 months, though, economic statistics being what they are, it won't be called such until September.


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