24 December 2022

Look Out Below

US durable goods orders fell by 2.1% in November, far worse than the consensus of a 1.1% fall.

Most of the fall is from a decline in commercial aircraft sales, which is not surprising, much like real estate, that market is driven by interest rates, but this is still bad news.

The Fed is getting the recession that they want:

The numbers: Orders for manufactured goods sank 2.1% in November in another sign of slackening demand in the U.S. economy as the year winds down.

Fewer contracts for commercial jets explained most of the weakness last month. But orders minus transportation and a key measure of business investment posted just very small increases.

Orders rise in an expanding economy and shrink when growth weakens. A variety of measures point to waning demand for goods due to a more fragile economy and a shift in consumer spending toward services such as travel and recreation.

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 1.1% decline in orders for durable goods — or products meant to last at least three years.

Key details: Orders for aircraft nosedived 36% last month, reflecting typical seasonal swings in contract signings. Demand for new cars and trucks also fell slightly.

The transportation segment is a large and volatile category that often exaggerates the ups and downs in industrial production.

I expect a recession next year.

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