No, It Wasn't the Russians

This is not a boat accident

It looks like someone just blew holes in the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines near their terminus in Germany, which had the ability to supply the bulk of the natural gas needs for northern Europe with Russian gas.

Some people are suggesting that the Russians did this, but all they have to do is to shut off the tap at their end, and they derive no benefit from this.

Had the assault been on the Norwegian gas line, the people attempting to blame Russia might have a case, but it's clear that someone with significant resources decided that it was more important to f%$# with Russia than it was to keep Europe out of a depression.

I wonder who that could be?

Sabotage is the most likely cause of leaks in two Baltic Sea gas pipelines between Russia and Europe, European leaders have said, after seismologists reported explosions around the Nord Stream pipelines.

A seismograph on the Danish island of Bornholm, near where the leaks occurred, twice recorded spikes on Monday, the day on which the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines underwent dramatic falls in pressure, the German geological research centre GFZ said.

A Danish military flight over the leaks brought back striking images from the ruptures, including one showing an area of bubbling gas a kilometre wide on the sea’s surface.

European commission president Ursula Von der Leyen said the leaks were due to “sabotage”, and threatened the “strongest possible response” to any deliberate disruption of European energy infrastructure.

“Any deliberate disruption of active European energy infrastructure is unacceptable and will lead to the strongest possible response,” she warned, and urged and investigation to get full clarity on the “events and why”.

Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen described them as “deliberate acts”, adding: “We are not talking about an accident.”

………

The seismograph recorded near-silence until just after midnight GMT (2am local time), when there was a spike representing a tremor in the earth followed by a continuous hissing wave form. The pattern was repeated at 5pm GMT.

The first question, of course, is "Cui bono." 

The second question is who has the capability to do this?

Given that the pipelines are about 70m (230 feet) down where the incident occurred, below the 40m (130 feet) depth commonly seen as the limit for conventional SCUBA diving.

This implies that whoever did this was using specialized gear, and possibly a specialized breathing mixture like Nitrox (above atmospheric O₂ concentration), or Heliox (He-O₂ mix).

It's possible that a private actor could do this, but not particularly likely.

Or, it could be a remarkable coincidence.