Interesting

The The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe  (OSCE) has observers on the ground monitoring the situation in and around the Donbas in the Ukraine, and they are reporting that most of the current shelling is coming from Ukrainian controlled area.

Given the statements of Ukranian officials, including their military, I do not believe that this is coming from their regular army units, but rather the right-wing paramilitaries like the Neo-Nazi Azof Battalion:

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has an observer mission along the line of control between the government and rebel side in south east Ukraine.

It reports that on Friday the number of ceasefire violations around the rebellious Donbas region of Ukraine had again nearly doubled:

• In Donetsk region, the SMM recorded 591 ceasefire violations, including 553 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 222 ceasefire violations in the region.
• In Luhansk region, the Mission recorded 975 ceasefire violations, including 860 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 648 ceasefire violations in the region.

………

The OSCE observer mission helpfully provides maps in its daily reports that show the impact points of artillery attacks. Yesterday a large majority of those were within the rebel controlled areas.

Here is a cutout from the OSCE map below.

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The OSCE observer mission reports can be found among its press releases. The daily updates are here and the longer term Trends and Observations reports are here.

When in doubt of what is happening take a look at them.

It's clear from the OSCE reports, and the OSCE is largely a western Europe institution not inclined to favor the Russians, that the escalation in shelling has come from the Ukrainian side of the line.

I do not think that this is official policy from Kiev, even if they were to "Win" a conflict that draws in the Russians, the costs on the Ukraine would be unsustainable.

In contrast, the paramilitaries would likely find their influence in a post-conflict Ukraine enhanced.

Cui bono?