It's Jobless Thursday

And initial jobless claims fell slightly to 340,000, with the less volatile 4-week moving average falling to 355,0000. Both numbers beat expectations.

The improvement in unemployment numbers seems to have stalled out, though we will have to wait until tomorrow's non-farm payroll numbers for confirmation.

The next month should be interesting, because the extended unemployment benefits end this week:

Jobless claims fell to a new pandemic low as businesses held on to workers despite the surging Delta variant.

Initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 340,000 in the week ended Aug. 28, the Labor Department said Thursday. That was the lowest level since the pandemic took hold in the U.S. in March 2020. The four-week moving average of claims, which smooths week-to-week volatility, fell to 355,000, also a pandemic low.

After briefly exceeding 400,000 in mid-July, claims have been trending near the lowest level since the pandemic began. That shows a rising number of cases and hospitalizations tied to the Delta variant of Covid-19 haven’t translated into increased layoffs. There are signs that the variant has dented consumer confidence and slowed spending growth, but many employers also report difficulty filling job openings, which touched record highs this summer, and may be reluctant to let workers go.

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Still, there are other signs that fast economic growth in the U.S. is losing momentum. The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services shrank 4.3% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted $70.1 billion, as imports of items such as toys, sporting goods and cellphones fell and exports rose, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

The drop in imports came as consumers and businesses pulled back on purchases of imported goods in July amid rising Covid-19 cases.

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Economists estimate that U.S. employers added 720,000 jobs to payrolls in August—a modest deceleration from July but the third straight month of robust gains after the pace of hiring cooled in the winter and spring. The Labor Department will release the August jobs report on Friday.

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Those two programs are set to expire Monday, along with a $300 weekly enhancement to benefits paid under all programs. About half of the states have already acted to curtail all or part of the pandemic unemployment benefits. Federal officials said the $300 enhancement must end but said states had the option of using emerging funds sent from the federal government to extend other pandemic-related unemployment benefits.

With the withdrawal of unemployment benefits, and Covid likely to surge during the winter months,  the path forward is anyone's guess.