08 December 2009

Economics Update

The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose for 7th straight month in November, as did the Japanese coincident indicator index for the month of October.

On the other side of the coin, the National Federation of Independent Businesses is reporting that small business optimism fell in November, and a recent poll is showing that Americans are becoming more pessimistic about the economy, and the Australian consumer is in a foul mood too.

In real estate, by dint of many government efforts to reinflate the bubble, Freddie Mac is reporting that home prices are up for the 2nd straight quarter.

So, we can expect more tax credits and suchlike in order to put off a final day of reckoning.

We had a major monkey wrench thrown into the the works of international finance today, when Fitch's downgraded Greece's credit rating from A- to BBB+, which has spooked the markets generally, most notably this news has pushed the Euro lower, with investors moving to the dollar and Yen, mostly the Yen, the dollar was up vs the € and down vs the ¥, looking for a safe haven.

Additionally, an update on Japan's GDP numbers for the 3rd quarter slashed growth from the initial reading of 4.8% to 1.3%.

The rising dollar, along with reports of strong inventories, drove oil to below $73/bbl.

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