Economics Update

We have some good news in real estate, with pending sales of existing homes posting their first back to back increase in almost a year, and construction rose unexpectedly.

Note however, that the pending homes sales numbers are for homes going into contracts, and has been diverging from closings lately, largely because of financing issues.

I'm a bull, and Yale economist Robert Shiller, of the famed Case-Shiller real estate index, is somewhat bearish too, saying that the improvements in real estate are "fragile".

Sometimes, markets pause for a breath on the way down, just as they do on the way up.

That being said, the lending situation does seem to be loosening up, as spreads are falling, which means that money is cheaper.

Still, banks are predicting more loan losses from the economy contracting according to a Federal Reserve report.

Meanwhile the generally good news has driven oil up, on the expectation of increased demand, and driven the dollar down, as people leave the safe haven of the $US.