Economics Update

H/T Calculated Risk

Well, weekly first time jobless claims at rose to 524,000, and the 4 week moving average was down 8000 to 518,500, and continued claims fell slightly, from 4.6 to 4.5 million. (Scary graph pr0n on right)

I'm not sure how much of this is being effected by the short weeks of Christmas and new years, but it should sort out in the next few weeks.

Not unsurprisingly, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a collection of anecdotal economic information reported by the various Federal Reserve banks, was really quote grim.

Unsurprising, considering that foreclosure filings rose 81% in 2008 over 2007.

Housing is not recovering in the near term, even with mortgage rates hitting another record low.

One of the reasons that there will not be a recovery is that commercial real estate is imploding right now, with the volume of loans for office space and rental properties defaulting or becoming delinquent expected to triple in 2009.

In international finance, S&P downgraded Greek sovereign debt, from A to A-, and the ECB cut its benchmark rate to 2%, an all time low.

Not surprisingly, both of these pushed the dollar up today.

The juxtaposition of economic weakness with a stronger dollar drove oil down too.