As if Things Didn't Already Suck for Georgia

Dick Cheney will be visiting Tbilisi next week, which should be unpleasant for everyone involved.

Cindy McCain is going there too, doubtless to provide tips on make-up, face lifts, and shoe purchases, in addition to her obvious expertise in drug abuse.

Unsurprisingly, the Russian Duma voted to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent, but there has not yet been a definitive statement by Medvedev, as the formal recognition of a state is the president's and not the Duma's prerogative, though I expect one shortly, because of the Kosovo precedent.

The US is warning that this is "unacceptable", and I expect that the Russians will consider this with just as much seriousness as the US considered similar Russian warnings on Kosovo.

I supported, and continue to support, the independence of Kosovo, but one of the negative consequences was that it provided a precedent of secession of regions in Europe, and it's entirely possible that we may see a similar movement in the Crimea in the next few years as a result.

Meanwhile, the U.S. and France are saying that Russia remaining in the so-called buffer zones is a violation of the cease fire, and Russia is maintaining that these are called for under agreements negotiated in the 1990s, and are thus covered by the cease fire.

My prediction: I expect formal recognition of the two breakaway regions as sovereign nations by Russia in the near future, and significant distancing from Georgia, or at least from Saakashvili by the West. It's already happening in "Old Europe", and I would expect it to occur in the US in January.