15 July 2008

Economics Update

Well, we have to open up with inflation in the producer price index, 1.8% for June, and 9.2% year over year, though the 1.8% rate actually comes closer to 22% if annualized.

The Fed ain't cutting rates any time soon, and apparrently neither is the Japanese central bank, which is holding rates steady at ½%. (Talk about pushing on a string!)

Even so, the dollar hit a new record low against the Euro before settling a bit.

Then we have General motors announcing massive job cuts and that it would suspend its dividend, which it has not done since 1922.

So GM paid a dividend throughout the Great Depression, but will not do so now.

Not surprisingly, Bernanke was rather downbeat about the economy in testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.

On the bright side, the doom and gloom has convinced everyone that the US is headed into a severe recession, reducing our demand for oil, so oil prices fell $6.44/bbl, the largest drop since Jan. 17, 1991, when Poppy Bush pulled oil out of the strategic petroleum reserves.

Unfortunately, this has not yet translated to relief at the pump, with retail gasoline hitting a new record high.

In the world of retail, there was a sales increase of just 0.1%, which, as Barry Ritholtz notes, is a a contraction when you figure in inflation, and even worse when you pull out food and energy.

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