Economics Update

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn is now giving some pretty strong signals that there will be no further rate cuts, which indicates that the Fed might be a bit concerned about inflation now.

The currency markets are most definitely concerned about inflation (which is another word for currency devaluation), and so the dollar has dropped. It's near a month low.

Oil just smashed the $130 barrier, settling at $133.17/bbl, and retail gasoline hit another record.

Real estate continues to face downward pressures, with Mortgage applications falling 7.8%last week. So even though we are in buying season, people are not looking to buy.

Finally, we have what appears to be the collapse of a monoliner insurer with CIFG Guaranty having its rating cut to junk status. They were downgraded from AAA in March, and Moodys just downgraded them further from A1 to Ba2, 7 levels at one swoop.

The business for monoliners is dependent on having an AAA rating. Put a fork in them, they are done.