17 September 2007

Oil Above $80

It's record high, and the basic reason is supply and demand, but it is also that oil is being denominated in a depreciating asset, the US dollar.

Oil exporting countries buy things denominated in Euros, Yen, Sterling, etc., and they can buy less of this when the dollar falls.

If the Fed cuts rates tomorrow, and all signs point to this, I would expect to see a new record low vs the Euro in the next 5-10 business days.

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