Well, Nancy Pelosi just made it clear that the votes aren't there if the measure includes an increase in the Medicare eligibility age:
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) on Thursday escalated her opposition to hiking Medicare's eligibility age, warning Republican leaders that it's a non-starter as part of the lame-duck fiscal talks.Nancy Pelosi is not trying to convince Boehner or McConnell not to cut entitlements, she's offering a shot across Obama's bow.
"Don't even think about raising the Medicare age," she said during her weekly press briefing in the Capitol. "We are not throwing America's seniors over the cliff to give a tax cut to the wealthiest people in America. We have clarity on that."
Even the Teabagger back benchers understand the politics of trying to pass cuts to Social Security and Medicare without any Democratic votes is political suicide, so even if Obama cuts a deal with the Republicans, they cannot afford to vote for it alone.