25 August 2008

Economics Update

The Philly Fed chief is calling for higher interest rates, because of inflation concerns.

The fact that there are now closings of marginal mines and the like would also indicate that the commodity plunge of the past 6 weeks or so is going to bottom out soon.

Though, truth be told, I'm not sure that it will make much of a difference, as the the fact that spread between LIBOR and the Fed Funds rate is 78 basis points, near an all time high, and an indicator that the Fed has largely lost control over interest rates in the rest of the economy, as well as indicating that the credit system is still frozen up.

Mean while, in real estate, we have bad news presented as good news, with stories trumpeting an increase in existing home sales in July, and soft pedaling a 7% year over year house prices.

Why is this National Association of Realtors (NAR) Bulls$#@?????

Because, Seasonally adjusted it's ignoring seasonal adjustments July and August are always big months, particularly for parents who do not want their children to change schools mid year. It's actually the worst seasonally adjusted numbers since 2000.

This is why 75% of Americans have negative view of economy, because the financial press is a bunch of Pollyannas, who ignore the the fact that aggregate weekly hours have been experiencing continuous negative growth on a month-to-month basis since January 2008.

Meanwhile, among the Wall Street Banks, we are now getting reports of a dead pool for Lehman CEO Dick Fuld. He's expected to be out within a year, which does not bode well for the company as a whole.

Meanwhile, Robert Rubin is stepping down from his position chairman of the board's executive committee, though he will remain on the board, which probably means something, but I do not know what, but considering Citi's record, I'm assuming bad news.

Meanwhile, oil is up today, even though the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline has resumed flow, but gasoline prices continues their downward course.

Thedollar is mixed today.


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