07 November 2007

Economic Avalance Update: November 7 Edition

The Dollar hit another all time low, it's currently at $1.4645:1.0000€, oil peaked at $98.62/bbl, the Canadian Dollar briefly broke $1.10 US today and the Dow dropped 361 points.

Not only do I expect to be right on the Euro breaking $1.50 and oil breaking $100/bbl before year's end, we may see significant moves toward moving oil to Euro denomination by next June. Iran and Venezuela are already pushing for this for political reasons, and the dollar's decline will likely put pressure on other petro economies to go a similar way.

To quote Paul Krugman (PDF):
Almost everyone believes that the US current account deficit must eventually end, and that this end will involve dollar depreciation. However, many believe that this depreciation will take place gradually. This paper shows that any process of gradual dollar decline fast enough to prevent the accumulation of implausible levels of US external debt would impose capital losses on investors much larger than they currently expect. As a result, there will at some point have to be a ‘Wile E. Coyote moment’ – a point at which expectations are revised, and the dollar drops sharply. .....
You have to love an economist who can invoke the Warner Brothers.


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