31 July 2008
More Retailer Bankruptcies
Linen 'n Things and SHOEQ Shoe Pavilion, both filing Chapter 11, reorganization, as opposed to Chapter 7, liquidation.
The Banks are Pulling a Fast One Here
I'm just not sure what.
I'm checking the Bloomberg financial news, and I come across this story, all of two paragraphs, about conducting all the trades for credit default swaps through a clearinghouse of some kind.
Some of the names that planning to do this are, "JPMorgan Chase & Co., Deutsche Bank AG and Morgan Stanley," and the article further goes on to state that, "The clearinghouse would be designed to absorb losses in the event a major market-maker fails."
Considering the value of the CDS market, which is roughly equal to that of world GDP, I gotta figure that something bad is heading down the pipeline, and that the big players are looking to offload it onto either stupid investors and/or the taxpayers.
Can anyone translate this into meaningful English?
I'm checking the Bloomberg financial news, and I come across this story, all of two paragraphs, about conducting all the trades for credit default swaps through a clearinghouse of some kind.
Some of the names that planning to do this are, "JPMorgan Chase & Co., Deutsche Bank AG and Morgan Stanley," and the article further goes on to state that, "The clearinghouse would be designed to absorb losses in the event a major market-maker fails."
Considering the value of the CDS market, which is roughly equal to that of world GDP, I gotta figure that something bad is heading down the pipeline, and that the big players are looking to offload it onto either stupid investors and/or the taxpayers.
Can anyone translate this into meaningful English?
What are the Banks Hiding?
The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) just postponed a rule that would require that off balance sheet entities* onto their books for one year.
They were getting a lot of pressure from banks and their allies on Congress about this.
The question is: what are they hiding, and at least part of the answer is:
They were getting a lot of pressure from banks and their allies on Congress about this.
The question is: what are they hiding, and at least part of the answer is:
Many lenders made profits in the run-up to the subprime- mortgage crisis by selling pools of loans to off-balance-sheet trusts known as qualified special purpose entities, or QSPEs, which repackaged the pools into mortgage-backed securities. Some banks then sold those securities to other off-balance-sheet vehicles they sponsored, such as so-called asset-backed commercial paper conduits.*Things like "mortgages and credit-card receivables."
The McCain Campaign Just Called Obama a N*****
Specifically, the called him an uppity N*****, when they accused of him playing the race card.
I think that by November, Senator John McCain will sound a lot like Senator Theodore Bilbo.
I think that by November, Senator John McCain will sound a lot like Senator Theodore Bilbo.
Bankruptcies and the Birth/Death Adjustment
When generating employment numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)uses something called a Birth/Death adjustment, which is supposed to account for small new businesses that it misses in its surveys.
Well, the always quotable Barry Ritholtz has a question, is anyone at the BLS looking at the "death" part of the model?
Specifically, commercial bankruptcies are up 45%, but the BLS is still using their Birth/Death model to increase employment numbers.
Well, the always quotable Barry Ritholtz has a question, is anyone at the BLS looking at the "death" part of the model?
Specifically, commercial bankruptcies are up 45%, but the BLS is still using their Birth/Death model to increase employment numbers.
Waxman Looking to Take Out Blackwater
Henry Waxman (D-CA) is Blackwater International's misrepresentation of itself as a small business to get contracts.
If fraud can be shown, they could be declared ineligible for future government contracts, which would, thankfully, put them out of business.
If fraud can be shown, they could be declared ineligible for future government contracts, which would, thankfully, put them out of business.
As Waxman explained in a memo (PDF) accompanying the launch of the three investigations, they each hinge on Blackwater's self-classification of its workers as contractors rather than employees. Waxman argues that classifying security personnel as contractors has allowed Blackwater to apply for small business contracts for which it wasn't eligible, underpay income taxes and workers benefits, and avoid complying with DOL anti-discrimination requirements for federal contractors.As useless as Pelosi is sometimes, it's good for Waxman to have subpoena power.
DDG-1000 Cancellation to Figure Prominently in Maine Senate Race
The US Navy has proposed ending production at 2 Zumwalt class DDG-1000, and making up the difference with additional DDG-51s, and incumbent Republican Susan Collins opposes this while Democratic challenger Tom Allen supports it.
The total amount of dollars from the Navy would be similar, but the Burkes have more local content, as the Zumwalts are made from modules from all around the country (the better to spread the pork around to many Congressional districts)and then assembled at Bath Iron Works, so the Burkes mean more money for Maine, which should be a selling point for Allen.
The total amount of dollars from the Navy would be similar, but the Burkes have more local content, as the Zumwalts are made from modules from all around the country (the better to spread the pork around to many Congressional districts)and then assembled at Bath Iron Works, so the Burkes mean more money for Maine, which should be a selling point for Allen.
Air Force Looks to Escalate in Iraq
If there is anything to be learned from the disastrous counter-insurgency experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is that the use of air power must be kept to a minimum, because the collateral damage crates more supporters for the insurgents.
Of course, this bit of knowledge appears not to have registered with the USAF, which is looking at an expansion of its role as US troops draw down.
This is why we need to be completely out. Every bomb we drop risks creating anothere Osama bin Laden.
Of course, this bit of knowledge appears not to have registered with the USAF, which is looking at an expansion of its role as US troops draw down.
This is why we need to be completely out. Every bomb we drop risks creating anothere Osama bin Laden.
It's Intelligence and Law Enforcement, Stupid
Yep, the Rand Corporation just released a report on how to fight terror, and as right wing as they are, they still say that intelligence and law enforcement are the way to fight terrorism. Throwing soldiers at the problem does not work.
Bush Tantrum May Force Government Shutdown
That's what Bush and His Evil Minions™ are threatening over offshore drilling, that they will either filibuster or veto the spending bills unless they get their favor for their buddies in big oil.
Another Reason Why Unemployment Statistics are Junk
Because they count people involuntarily cut to part time status as fully employed.
We need to fix government statistics.
We need to fix government statistics.
Trent Lott May Be Involved in Witness Tampering
It's tied into the Ricky Scruggs case, and a deposition where Zack Scruggs, Lott's nephew, took the 5th in response to the question, "Has it been your custom and habit in prosecuting litigation to have Senator Lott contact and encourage witnesses to give false information?".
It's nice that Scruggs and Lott got along so well...I would have figured some tension, as Scruggs was a big Democratic Party supporter in Mississippi.
It's nice that Scruggs and Lott got along so well...I would have figured some tension, as Scruggs was a big Democratic Party supporter in Mississippi.
Economics Update
Well, we have a big bit of information to lead with today, it turns out that the revised GDP numbers for the 4th quarter of 2007 show a contraction of 0.2% in the economy, which means that as numbers come in, that might very well be the start of the economy, particularly given the fact that the inflation numbers used to generate "real" GDP growth are bogus.
According to the most recent figures, the US economy grew in the 2nd quarter of 2008, but it grew less than forecast, 1.9% as versus 2.3%, but given what happens in revisions, I expect the number to get worse over time.
Employment is grim too, with weekly jobless claims up 44,000 to 448,000, though part of this is the effect of people going back on unemployment because of the 13 week extension.
While the weekly number is noisy, the trend has been toward increasing unemployment, and I agree with Calculated Risk, "Labor related gauges are at best coincident indicators, and this indicator suggests the economy is in recession."
That's not to say that there is no data pointing in the other direction, as the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index Increased to 50.8, and any number above 50 points toward expansion.
That being said, the currency market saw the clouds, not the silver lining, with the dollar falling, though the fact that Euro zone inflation hit an all time high of 4.1%, which points toward rate increases by the ECB, could be a factor in there too.
In real estate, mortgage rates fell this week, which is probably an artifact of the reduced inflation fears from moderating oil prices.
The bit I found interesting though is that Freddie Mac is doubling the payments it makes to loan servicers for foreclosure prevention activities, which strikes me as a sort of a "hail Mary" play to keep more of their mortgage backed paper from going bad.
And our old friend, "The trouble with the monoliner insurers," is back, with Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. (FGIC) being cut to junk bond status by Fitch.
In energy, both oil and gasoline are down.
Finally, a reason, as if you needed one, not to watch the Fox Business Chennel:
This just buggers the mind.
According to the most recent figures, the US economy grew in the 2nd quarter of 2008, but it grew less than forecast, 1.9% as versus 2.3%, but given what happens in revisions, I expect the number to get worse over time.
Employment is grim too, with weekly jobless claims up 44,000 to 448,000, though part of this is the effect of people going back on unemployment because of the 13 week extension.
While the weekly number is noisy, the trend has been toward increasing unemployment, and I agree with Calculated Risk, "Labor related gauges are at best coincident indicators, and this indicator suggests the economy is in recession."
That's not to say that there is no data pointing in the other direction, as the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index Increased to 50.8, and any number above 50 points toward expansion.
That being said, the currency market saw the clouds, not the silver lining, with the dollar falling, though the fact that Euro zone inflation hit an all time high of 4.1%, which points toward rate increases by the ECB, could be a factor in there too.
In real estate, mortgage rates fell this week, which is probably an artifact of the reduced inflation fears from moderating oil prices.
The bit I found interesting though is that Freddie Mac is doubling the payments it makes to loan servicers for foreclosure prevention activities, which strikes me as a sort of a "hail Mary" play to keep more of their mortgage backed paper from going bad.
And our old friend, "The trouble with the monoliner insurers," is back, with Financial Guaranty Insurance Co. (FGIC) being cut to junk bond status by Fitch.
In energy, both oil and gasoline are down.
Finally, a reason, as if you needed one, not to watch the Fox Business Chennel:
This just buggers the mind.
Number of Illegal Aliens Declines
The Center for Immigration Studies report suggests that stepped up enforcement may be the cause, but my guess is that most of this is from a sputtering US economy and dollar, which makes the US less attractive to would be illegals.
Judge: Bush Aids Must Comply with Congressional Subopoenas
It should be noted that U.S. District Judge John Bates is Bush appointee, and generally considered conservative and friendly to executive power, but even he found the broad claims of executive privilege to be unsupportable.
I still say Pelosi should send out the Sergeant at arms and drag these folks off to the Capitol basement jail cell.
I still say Pelosi should send out the Sergeant at arms and drag these folks off to the Capitol basement jail cell.
Our Mercenary Pentagon
Chalmers Johnson has an excellent essay on how the privatization of our Pentagon is both dysfunctional and a threat to democracy.
Go read.
Go read.
Simple Answers to Simple Questions
Avedon Carol asks:
This has been another episode of simple answers to simple questions.
And why is it that the more Obama tacks to the right, the dicier things seem to get? Could it be that it's a mistake for the (predicted) Democratic nominee to court the right at the expense of the Democratic base?Yes.
This has been another episode of simple answers to simple questions.
House passes bill to regulate tobacco
A bill allowing the FDA to regulate tobacco just passed the House.
It wouldn't allow a ban, but it would regulate things like adulterants added to the tobacco and the manipulation of nicotine levels.
Bush and the Republicans are opposed, no surprise, though no veto is (yet) promised.
I don't think they need to threaten a veto, it will never make it through the Senate.
It wouldn't allow a ban, but it would regulate things like adulterants added to the tobacco and the manipulation of nicotine levels.
Bush and the Republicans are opposed, no surprise, though no veto is (yet) promised.
I don't think they need to threaten a veto, it will never make it through the Senate.
McCain Loses St. Petersburg Times (Florida)
From 'straight talk' to smear campaign.
I see a parallel between 2008 and 1992, where the press realized how badly they were played by GHW Bush against Dukakkis in 1988, and were careful not to be played again in 1992.
Maybe I'm just an optimist though.
On a related note, John Weaver, who has been a close friend and confidant of McCain for years, is dwenouncing his current ad campaign as childish, "There is legitimate mockery of a political campaign now, and it isn't at Obama's. For McCain's sake, this tomfoolery needs to stop."
I see a parallel between 2008 and 1992, where the press realized how badly they were played by GHW Bush against Dukakkis in 1988, and were careful not to be played again in 1992.
Maybe I'm just an optimist though.
On a related note, John Weaver, who has been a close friend and confidant of McCain for years, is dwenouncing his current ad campaign as childish, "There is legitimate mockery of a political campaign now, and it isn't at Obama's. For McCain's sake, this tomfoolery needs to stop."
Mexican Oil Industry Legislation Update
I think that it's fairly clear that the right wing PAN is attempting a back door privatization of Pemex, the state own oil producer, while the PRD sees any change as an theft from the Mexican people, and the PRI falls somewhere in between.
The problem is that Pemex has not been run well, and it is lacking resources as a result, so some sort of reform is necessary.
I still believe that purchasing the necessary expertise, as opposed to "risk sharing partnerships" that are a back door way of privatizing the system, are the way to go.
The problem is that Pemex has not been run well, and it is lacking resources as a result, so some sort of reform is necessary.
I still believe that purchasing the necessary expertise, as opposed to "risk sharing partnerships" that are a back door way of privatizing the system, are the way to go.
Food Crisis and Global Warming Boost Israeli Water/AG Industry
Since Israel has been getting the desert to bloom for about 60 years, it had developed a fair amount of expertise in water purification and desert agriculture, and it's now befitting from a worldwide boom in demand.
Between trickle (also called drip) irrigation and various water purification technologies, the sector is experiencing a boom.
Between trickle (also called drip) irrigation and various water purification technologies, the sector is experiencing a boom.
State of Connecticut Sues Ratings Agencies
They are suing over their giving lower ratings to government bonds than equivalent corporate bonds, which they actually call, "a secret Wall Street tax on Main Street".
The disparities in ratings means either higher interest rates, or carrying monoliner insurance, both of which accrue to the benefit of Wall Street.
The disparities in ratings means either higher interest rates, or carrying monoliner insurance, both of which accrue to the benefit of Wall Street.
2.3 Million Jobs
That is what a report from the Economic Policy Institute said were the number of jobs lost due to the trade deficit with China.
What's more, when they found new jobs, they made $8,146 less.
I'm not anti free trade agreements, but I'm anti bad free trade agreements.
What's more, when they found new jobs, they made $8,146 less.
I'm not anti free trade agreements, but I'm anti bad free trade agreements.
It Must Be Nice to be a Republithug
Because you can live an Irony Free Life™.
As Senator Sam Brownback demonstrates by delcaring "shocked, shocked to find that Chinese authorities are demanding monitoring of internet activities by hotels of their guests,"after voting for exactly the same thing for the entire population of the United States.
Leave Claude Rains to Claude Rains.
As Senator Sam Brownback demonstrates by delcaring "shocked, shocked to find that Chinese authorities are demanding monitoring of internet activities by hotels of their guests,"after voting for exactly the same thing for the entire population of the United States.
Leave Claude Rains to Claude Rains.
Core of US Army Corroding
While the military press, and military experts, have been wringing their hands over the flight of junior officers from the military, I'm not concerned.
The US military has 1 officers for every 5 enlisted men, twice the historical rate of 1:10, so I think that there is plenty of margin there.
That being said, Salon's report that the army is now being forced to promote unqualified soldiers to senior NCO positions to meet the challenges of the Iraq campaign is very troubling.
Senior NCOs are the heart and soul of the army, and when the NCO corps starts failing, the whole military does.
The US military has 1 officers for every 5 enlisted men, twice the historical rate of 1:10, so I think that there is plenty of margin there.
That being said, Salon's report that the army is now being forced to promote unqualified soldiers to senior NCO positions to meet the challenges of the Iraq campaign is very troubling.
Senior NCOs are the heart and soul of the army, and when the NCO corps starts failing, the whole military does.
Iraqi Parliament Adjourns Without Election Law or Budget
They are in summer recess now, and because of a Kurdish walkout, they took no action on a $21 billion supplementary budget.
The provincial elections are still unresolved too, though there will be a special session to attempt to resolve this.
Heck of a job, Bushie.
The provincial elections are still unresolved too, though there will be a special session to attempt to resolve this.
Heck of a job, Bushie.
Russia Gains Control of Turkomen Gas Exports
This development cements Gazprom's position as the 800 lb gorilla in the world natural gas market.
It looks like they will sign similar projects with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
An interesting note is that the deals appear not to be particularly good for Gazprom, it's unlikely that they will make much money out of them, but what it does do is likely kill a gas pipeline on a southern route through Turkey, which the US had been pushing to minimize Russian influence in Europe.
It looks like they will sign similar projects with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
An interesting note is that the deals appear not to be particularly good for Gazprom, it's unlikely that they will make much money out of them, but what it does do is likely kill a gas pipeline on a southern route through Turkey, which the US had been pushing to minimize Russian influence in Europe.
Congress Looks to Decriminalize Pot
The proposed legislation would remove federal penalties for possession of less than 100g of marijuana.
Reps. Barney Frank and Ron Paul are sponsoring HR 5843.
I'm Matthew Saroff, and I approve this legislation.
Reps. Barney Frank and Ron Paul are sponsoring HR 5843.
I'm Matthew Saroff, and I approve this legislation.
30 July 2008
The IOC: The First Bastards Up Against the Wall When the Revolution Comes
The IOC just meekly assented to allowing the Chinese government to filter internet access for the reporters at the games, despite promising otherwise just weeks ago.
What a bunch of losers.
That being said, ShaMao'er asks the question that immediately comes to mind, "The same old question... why are they so dumb?"
Meaning the Chinese government. They had to know that this would be found out in short order, and they had to know that the consequences of being found out would be worse than anything that a reporter pulled off Amnesty International's web site.
My only guess is that is about a need to be in control trumped their need to get good foreign press.
A number of analyses have suggested that the primary audience that is being targeted by the PRC for the Olympics is internal, not external, and that would explain this action.
What a bunch of losers.
That being said, ShaMao'er asks the question that immediately comes to mind, "The same old question... why are they so dumb?"
Meaning the Chinese government. They had to know that this would be found out in short order, and they had to know that the consequences of being found out would be worse than anything that a reporter pulled off Amnesty International's web site.
My only guess is that is about a need to be in control trumped their need to get good foreign press.
A number of analyses have suggested that the primary audience that is being targeted by the PRC for the Olympics is internal, not external, and that would explain this action.
I'd Call This Kafkaesque, but the Term Seems Wholly Inadequate
A press release from the ACLU:
I'm Speechless.
Justice Department Asks Intelligence Court To Review New Wiretapping Law In Secret (7/30/2008)(emphasis mine)
ACLU Says Any Proceedings On New FISA Law Should Be As Transparent As Possible
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
CONTACT: (212) 549-2666; media@aclu.org
WASHINGTON – In a brief filed late yesterday with the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC), the Bush administration asked that any review of the new warrantless surveillance law be kept secret and that the court refuse to accept legal briefs from anyone other than the Justice Department itself. The government is responding to a motion the American Civil Liberties Union filed earlier this month asking the FISC to ensure that any proceedings relating to the scope, meaning or constitutionality of the FISA Amendments Act (FAA) be open to the public to the extent possible.
The following can be attributed to Jameel Jaffer, Director of the ACLU National Security Project:
"The government is proposing that the intelligence court should consider the constitutionality of the new surveillance law in proceedings that will be entirely secret. If the government's request is granted, the court won't hear arguments from anyone except the government and those arguments will be presented to the court in secret briefs. At the end of the process, the court will issue a ruling that is also secret. The process the government is proposing is completely unacceptable. Especially because the new surveillance law departs so significantly from the standards that have applied to government surveillance for the last 30 years, any proceedings relating to the new law's constitutionality should be adversarial and as informed and transparent as possible."
In a separate legal challenge in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, the ACLU seeks a court ruling declaring that the FAA is unconstitutional and ordering its immediate and permanent halt. Plaintiffs in the case include Amnesty International USA, Human Rights Watch, the Nation and PEN American Center.
I'm Speechless.
McCain Loses.....
Time's Karen Timulty, "So how many more times are the McCain campaign and the Republicans going to repeat what is a thoroughly baseless charge?" (emphasis mine)
The front page of the Washington Post, "For four days, Sen. John McCain and his allies have accused Sen. Barack Obama of snubbing wounded soldiers by canceling a visit to a military hospital because he could not take reporters with him, despite no evidence that the charge is true." (emphasis mine)
And the New York Times Editorial Board, "Many voters are wondering whether a McCain presidency would be an extension of Mr. Bush’s two disastrous terms. If the way Mr. McCain is running his campaign these days is an indication, Americans don’t have to wait until next January for the answer to that one." (emphasis mine)
Could it be that the "Straight Talk Express" has worn out the batteries? Because this stuff looks suspiciously like journalism.
The front page of the Washington Post, "For four days, Sen. John McCain and his allies have accused Sen. Barack Obama of snubbing wounded soldiers by canceling a visit to a military hospital because he could not take reporters with him, despite no evidence that the charge is true." (emphasis mine)
And the New York Times Editorial Board, "Many voters are wondering whether a McCain presidency would be an extension of Mr. Bush’s two disastrous terms. If the way Mr. McCain is running his campaign these days is an indication, Americans don’t have to wait until next January for the answer to that one." (emphasis mine)
Could it be that the "Straight Talk Express" has worn out the batteries? Because this stuff looks suspiciously like journalism.
Oh Crap! The US-Iraq Forever Deal Seems Back On
It looks like the status of forces agreement is back in active negotiation, complete with bullsh@% "time horizon".
The Bush administration's embrace of a flexible timeline for pulling U.S. troops from Iraq has accelerated negotiations between Washington and Baghdad over a long-term security pact, officials from both sides said.Great googley moogley.
The optimism marks a turnaround from just a month ago, when big differences seemed to have deadlocked talks over the terms of a continued American military presence in the country. In June, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said the talks were at a "dead end," dimming hopes of reaching a deal by July 31 -- a goal the Bush administration has pushed hard to meet.
This month, however, the White House said it had agreed to a "general time horizon" for troop withdrawals, breaking from its long-held public resistance to the notion. The change has helped overcome differences on other issues, such as immunity for U.S. troops, negotiators on both sides said.
...
Quote of the Day: Tristero Edition
Hullabaloo
I don't have the vocabulary to describe such inanity. I can learn far more about politics by watching old Rocky and Bullwinkle cartoons than I can from Maureen Dowd (and they're a lot funnier).I would add a lot smarter and a lot more subversive too.
Airline Death Spiral
Delta is doubling its baggage fees, from $25 to $50.
Amtrak for that cross country trip is sounding better and better.
Well, at the rate that they are going, there won't be any more passengers to annoy their staff.
Amtrak for that cross country trip is sounding better and better.
Well, at the rate that they are going, there won't be any more passengers to annoy their staff.
Washington AP Chief Interviewed for a Position with the McCain Campaign in 2006
Yet another reason to continue to maintain my boycott of the Associated press.
It should be noted that while Karl Rove was concocting the phony story about Pat Tillman's death, Ron Fournier wrote him a mash note, telling him to, "Keep up the fight."
It should be noted that while Karl Rove was concocting the phony story about Pat Tillman's death, Ron Fournier wrote him a mash note, telling him to, "Keep up the fight."
What Digby Said
She is spot on
Richard Cohen and others like him who play the role of 'liberal' in the mainstream media are the reason why so many people hate liberals. They're idiots.I really have nothing to add to this.
Economics Update
Well, you know that the economy sucks when lawyers are being laid off, in this case at Cadwalader, Wickersham* & Taft because the 70% decline in the commercial real estate market had created redundant personnel.
When you consider the fact that Citi will likely write-down its CDOs to the tune of $8 billion, following Merrill Lynch's $5.7 B writedown of its CDOs, it's not surprising nothing is moving.
Citi currently values its CDOs at 53¢ on the dollar, but Merrill sold at somewhere between 22¢ and 5.5¢ on the dollar (see this post), so this will be ugly for them, and for a lot of other financial institutions.
Some people are predicting writedowns of over $100 billion for Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac, but it could be worse if there is a rush to the exits.
I think that it's also pretty likely that the credit crunch had a lot to do with Mervyns, department stores filing for bankruptcy, reorganization, not liquidation, as the straw that breaks the Camel's back is typically the withdrawal of credit.
Still, we have a decent numbers in the ADP jobs report, which has also strengthened the dollar.
Additionally, the efforts by government institutions continue with Federal Reserve extending its loan program to Wall Street banks, "Cash for Trash," from mid-September to January 30 and the SEC has extended its naked short-selling ban until August 17.
In energy, oil is up, and retail gasoline is down.
*Interestingly enough, I probably would not have even noticed the story, but for the fact that the name Wikersham was there. he first political story that I have any recollection about was about that ship, and the problems that developed as a result of cabotage related issues with the Jones Act, which required it to stop in Canada between American ports,
I actually rode on the ship when my family was leaving Alaska.
When you consider the fact that Citi will likely write-down its CDOs to the tune of $8 billion, following Merrill Lynch's $5.7 B writedown of its CDOs, it's not surprising nothing is moving.
Citi currently values its CDOs at 53¢ on the dollar, but Merrill sold at somewhere between 22¢ and 5.5¢ on the dollar (see this post), so this will be ugly for them, and for a lot of other financial institutions.
Some people are predicting writedowns of over $100 billion for Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac, but it could be worse if there is a rush to the exits.
I think that it's also pretty likely that the credit crunch had a lot to do with Mervyns, department stores filing for bankruptcy, reorganization, not liquidation, as the straw that breaks the Camel's back is typically the withdrawal of credit.
Still, we have a decent numbers in the ADP jobs report, which has also strengthened the dollar.
Additionally, the efforts by government institutions continue with Federal Reserve extending its loan program to Wall Street banks, "Cash for Trash," from mid-September to January 30 and the SEC has extended its naked short-selling ban until August 17.
In energy, oil is up, and retail gasoline is down.
*Interestingly enough, I probably would not have even noticed the story, but for the fact that the name Wikersham was there. he first political story that I have any recollection about was about that ship, and the problems that developed as a result of cabotage related issues with the Jones Act, which required it to stop in Canada between American ports,
I actually rode on the ship when my family was leaving Alaska.
Olmert as Kadima Head Out in September
Thank God.
No matter what your opinion on his peace initiatives, it's clear that a person who is negotiation with an eye toward redeeming himself from charges of corruption is less likely to cut a deal that will last.
Elections will be sometime early next year.
Desperation does not make for good statesmanship.
No matter what your opinion on his peace initiatives, it's clear that a person who is negotiation with an eye toward redeeming himself from charges of corruption is less likely to cut a deal that will last.
Elections will be sometime early next year.
Desperation does not make for good statesmanship.
More Evidence that Arbitration is a Racket
This sad tail of corruption as a feature, not a bug, in arbitration courtesy of Jane Bryant Quinn.
Short story, people screwed over in auction rate security deals will likely have to be heard by arbitrators whose own companies are the subjects of actions by people screwed over in auction rate security deals.
This will be an issue that I will start dunning candidates on, because binding arbitration is a racket.
Short story, people screwed over in auction rate security deals will likely have to be heard by arbitrators whose own companies are the subjects of actions by people screwed over in auction rate security deals.
This will be an issue that I will start dunning candidates on, because binding arbitration is a racket.
Turkey: Ruling Party Not Banned
The Constitutional Court voted in favor of a ban, but only 6-5, one vote short of the 7 required, though they did cut the amount of public funding available to the party.
I would guess that this is a political decision, with the court slapping down the Justice and Development Party (AKP) enough to make them notice, but not creating the furore of a ban.
I would guess that this is a political decision, with the court slapping down the Justice and Development Party (AKP) enough to make them notice, but not creating the furore of a ban.
CIA Starts Leaking Dirt on Pakistani ISI
Pakistan denies this, but we have reports that a CIA operative met with Pakistani and presented evidence of close links and support between al Queida and the people in the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
Pakistan's state security apparatus is focused on a war with India, and when it's not focused on that, it's looking at reducing Indian influence in the area, so at allies with Maulavi Jalaluddin Haqqani, which provides sanctuary for al Queida.
These people are not reliable allies with regard to combatting al Queida, the Taliban, or terrorism in general as a result.
Pakistan's state security apparatus is focused on a war with India, and when it's not focused on that, it's looking at reducing Indian influence in the area, so at allies with Maulavi Jalaluddin Haqqani, which provides sanctuary for al Queida.
These people are not reliable allies with regard to combatting al Queida, the Taliban, or terrorism in general as a result.
More Taser Abuse
The police come across a 16 year old boy lying on the street, having fallen from an overpass, and having a broken foot and broken back, and it appears that the officers Tasered him 19 times because he ignored their requests to get up, so they tortured him.
And then we have the second death in as many months in the Charlotte jail from Taser Abuse. In the first case, they tasered someone for 37 seconds...but that cop is still on the force.
This won't change unless/until Tasers are classified as lethal weapons.
And then we have the second death in as many months in the Charlotte jail from Taser Abuse. In the first case, they tasered someone for 37 seconds...but that cop is still on the force.
This won't change unless/until Tasers are classified as lethal weapons.
Lock Rove in the House Basement
There is a cell there, and since Mukasey has said that he refused to enforce contempt citations you can have the Congressional sergeant at arms arrest him and lock himup.
Otherwise, the fact that the House Judiciary Committee vote to hold him in contempt means absolutely nothing.
You have the authority to do so, and it was done as late as 1934.
Otherwise, the fact that the House Judiciary Committee vote to hold him in contempt means absolutely nothing.
You have the authority to do so, and it was done as late as 1934.
Boeing Looks for New Ways to F%$@ Up Labor Management Relations
It looks like Boeing, the only company incompetent enough to get engineers to go out on strike and stay out,* is playing chicken with it's unions again, though this time it's the International Association of Machinists (IAM), who are far more likely to strike than the Society of Professional Engineering Employees in Aerospace (SPEEA).
There may not be much that Boeing is good at, but forcing its employees out on bitter strikes is one of the few.
With the 787 at least 14 months behind schedule, they can't afford a strike, but they are still pushing to screw the employees on pensions and healthcare.
Smooth move guys.
*The SPEEA went out for 40 days in 2000, despite the fact that it was a bunch of engineers, who generally hate unions, and the union was up to that point considered a joke.
There may not be much that Boeing is good at, but forcing its employees out on bitter strikes is one of the few.
With the 787 at least 14 months behind schedule, they can't afford a strike, but they are still pushing to screw the employees on pensions and healthcare.
Smooth move guys.
*The SPEEA went out for 40 days in 2000, despite the fact that it was a bunch of engineers, who generally hate unions, and the union was up to that point considered a joke.
Merrill Lynch CDO Sale at Far Less than 22¢ on the Dollar
Yesterday, I wrote about a 5.7 billion write-down that Merril was taking on CDOs.
It turns out that the numbers, which showed them getting 22¢ on the dollar are completely bogus. They took an even bigger haircut than reported.
Nouriel Roubin has the details, but the cliff notes version is:
It turns out that the numbers, which showed them getting 22¢ on the dollar are completely bogus. They took an even bigger haircut than reported.
Nouriel Roubin has the details, but the cliff notes version is:
- Merrill financed the purchase.
- The finance rate is at sub market rates.
- The security for the deal is the same CDO crap that they are selling
- Merrill has, "would absorb any losses on the CDOs beyond $1.68 billion"
WTO Talks are Done, for Now at Least
Issues between the US and India and China over farm exports killed the deal.
Not surprising. As Krugman notes, trade deals are not about real free trade, but rather "enlightened mercantilism", so he doesn't see it as the end of the world.
I am actually far less of a free trader than he is, and I see the current deals as damaging people far more than it helps people, so I think that some changes, including more transparency in adjudication bodies and the elimination of the idea that regulation is a taking, should be a core value to proceed.
Not surprising. As Krugman notes, trade deals are not about real free trade, but rather "enlightened mercantilism", so he doesn't see it as the end of the world.
I am actually far less of a free trader than he is, and I see the current deals as damaging people far more than it helps people, so I think that some changes, including more transparency in adjudication bodies and the elimination of the idea that regulation is a taking, should be a core value to proceed.
FDIC Puts Brakes on overed Bonds
As I wrote earlier, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is pushing a new (for the US, at least) sort of bond, the covered bond, to unfreeze the mortgage credit markets.
Well, it looks like the FDIC just put up a road block, saying that it is considering limiting these new bonds to 4% of bank liabilities.
It has expressed concern about the instruments might place additional risk on them:
Of course, these days, all real estate loans are risky instruments.
Well, it looks like the FDIC just put up a road block, saying that it is considering limiting these new bonds to 4% of bank liabilities.
It has expressed concern about the instruments might place additional risk on them:
"The FDIC is concerned that unrestricted growth, while the FDIC is evaluating the potential benefits and risks of covered bonds, could excessively increase the proportion of secured liabilities to unsecured liabilities," the agency said. In other words, Back off my insurance fund. The agency did say it would consider revising its guidance after it has a chance to evaluate the effect of covered bonds on banks.The FDIC could refuse to cover these bonds in the event of a bank failure, and as such, if they institute this policy, it may very well put a stake through the proposal's heart.
Of course, these days, all real estate loans are risky instruments.
I Like My Cigar, But I Take It Out Once in a While!*
Canadian couple Livia and Alexandru Ionce are celebrating the birth of their 18th child. Ages of the sibs range from 23 to 20 months, and there are no multiple births, and all but one were natural delivery.
*The quote is attributed to Groucho Marx, but is debunked by Snopes.
*The quote is attributed to Groucho Marx, but is debunked by Snopes.
29 July 2008
Republican Message of the Day: Do Not Vote
Because those people with the sign up sheets may want to steal your identity and get credit cards in your name.
So says Delegate Jeffrey Frederic, chairman of the Virginia Republican party.
Of course, a lot of this has to do with fact that it's black people that are being target by the Democratic party for registration.
So says Delegate Jeffrey Frederic, chairman of the Virginia Republican party.
Of course, a lot of this has to do with fact that it's black people that are being target by the Democratic party for registration.
Bennigan's and Steak-and-Ale Chains Go Out of Business
Bankruptcy, filing for liquidation, not reorg.
It appears that something happened to their credit line with GE Capital, and had to shut down.
It appears that something happened to their credit line with GE Capital, and had to shut down.
Loan Servicers Under Stress
One of the funny bits of the current mortgage market is that even when the banks hold the loans, they don't generally handle the money.
They pass this off to loan servicing firms, who send out the bills, collect checks, handle escrow, etc.
Well, it appears that they have to make payments of interest and principal to the loan holders for accounts up to 90 days delinquent, in addition to handling property tax payments, and as a result, they are taking a beating from the skyrocketing rate of delinquencies.
H/t HousingWire
They pass this off to loan servicing firms, who send out the bills, collect checks, handle escrow, etc.
Well, it appears that they have to make payments of interest and principal to the loan holders for accounts up to 90 days delinquent, in addition to handling property tax payments, and as a result, they are taking a beating from the skyrocketing rate of delinquencies.
H/t HousingWire
Massachusetts House Votes to Repeal Law Restricting Gay Marriage
It was passed in 1913, and forbade marriages to residents of a state where the marriage would not be legal, but now the House has passed the repeal, following the lead of the Senate, and it's going to the desk of Deval Patrick, who says he will sign it.
Two snaps up, particularly for caterers on Cape Cod who will doubtless see a surge in business..
Two snaps up, particularly for caterers on Cape Cod who will doubtless see a surge in business..
Economics Update
The Bush administration is now, finally, predicting a slowing economy, with a GDP growth rate of 1.6%...though with a higher prediction of inflation at 3.8%, it's a net contraction, which is why they are also predicting an increase in the unemployment rate.
Given this environment, it is unsurprising that home prices fell in May by 0.9%, 15.8% year over year, which is grim.
What is surprising is that Consumer confidence was up a bit, to 51.9 from 51.0, but even 51.9 is very pessimistic.
We may be seeing a bottom of consumer pessimism, which is different from seeing a bottom to the credit crisis.
The slowdown seems to be driving the price of oil down, as well as the price of retail gasoline, and falling energy prices seem to be bolstering the dollar versus foreign currencies, though the bad news on Japanese unemployment, a 2 year high, may have contributed to this.
Still, the banks are buying lots of money from the Federal Reserve to deal with the liquidity problems, $75 billion this time, so we ain't out of the woods.
For your amusement, a cartoon:
Given this environment, it is unsurprising that home prices fell in May by 0.9%, 15.8% year over year, which is grim.
What is surprising is that Consumer confidence was up a bit, to 51.9 from 51.0, but even 51.9 is very pessimistic.
We may be seeing a bottom of consumer pessimism, which is different from seeing a bottom to the credit crisis.
The slowdown seems to be driving the price of oil down, as well as the price of retail gasoline, and falling energy prices seem to be bolstering the dollar versus foreign currencies, though the bad news on Japanese unemployment, a 2 year high, may have contributed to this.
Still, the banks are buying lots of money from the Federal Reserve to deal with the liquidity problems, $75 billion this time, so we ain't out of the woods.
For your amusement, a cartoon:
Signs that You are Losing a Counter-Insurgency Campaign
Item 1: an increasing reliance on air strikes to achieve tactical goals, as is the case in Afghanistan.
Of course, that attack on the forward base indicates that things are not well either.
Of course, that attack on the forward base indicates that things are not well either.
No Bail for Wilkes
Brent Wilkes, who was convicted of bribing Randy "Duke" Cunningham, has been told that if he has a friend who wishes to post the $1.4 million for bail, his name must be made public.
This person, referred to as a former business associate, whoever he or she is, has made it clear that they would lose their job if their name became public, so I guess he stays in jail pending appeal.
If anyone has an idea who this person is, I want to know.
This person, referred to as a former business associate, whoever he or she is, has made it clear that they would lose their job if their name became public, so I guess he stays in jail pending appeal.
If anyone has an idea who this person is, I want to know.
Reid Will Allow Vote on Offshore Drilling
I'm not sure whether this move is smart or stupid.
It requires 60 votes to make the amendment, and that means 11 Dems or 10 Dems + Lieberman, because McCain won't be casting another Senate vote until he's done with the presidential campaign, and I do not see the votes there.
It requires 60 votes to make the amendment, and that means 11 Dems or 10 Dems + Lieberman, because McCain won't be casting another Senate vote until he's done with the presidential campaign, and I do not see the votes there.
Disabled American Veterans Tells Dick Cheney to go Pound Sand
They yanked his invite because he was demanding that the audience show up two hours early and not have access to bathrooms as a result.
Seriously, even George W. Bush isn't this cowardly about meeting crowds....what is with this guy.
Seriously, even George W. Bush isn't this cowardly about meeting crowds....what is with this guy.
Ted Stevens Indicted
I'll avoid the "tubes" and the "incredible hulk" jokes, as most of the 'net does snark better than me.
In any case, he has been indicted on 7 counts related to concealing income from gifts from lobbyists and their firms, once again proving that it's the cover-up that will get you.
Interestingly enough, the Republicans in Alaska are so corrupt they don't have a replacement, with the most likely replacement, Sarah Palin, who is under investigation about misuse of power to get her ex-brother-in-law fired from the State Police.
Also note that the party can replace Stevens up to 48 days before the general election, so he could drop out.
That being said, I'll enjoy some Schadenfreude, and you can donate to the Democratic challenger, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich at my ActBlue page.
In any case, he has been indicted on 7 counts related to concealing income from gifts from lobbyists and their firms, once again proving that it's the cover-up that will get you.
Interestingly enough, the Republicans in Alaska are so corrupt they don't have a replacement, with the most likely replacement, Sarah Palin, who is under investigation about misuse of power to get her ex-brother-in-law fired from the State Police.
Also note that the party can replace Stevens up to 48 days before the general election, so he could drop out.
That being said, I'll enjoy some Schadenfreude, and you can donate to the Democratic challenger, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich at my ActBlue page.
New Study: Kindergarten Red-Shirting Bad for Kids
There is a study by David Deming and Susan Dynarski that seems to indicate that delaying entry into first grade actually reduces academic achievement.
This is interesting,since the, "Boy Crisis" crowd, is aggressively holding boys back a year to deal with the delay in language development of young boys vs. young girls.
My, admitted anecdotal, information would suggest not to red-shirt.
My son, Charlie, is an Asperger's child, and as such, he is socially delayed, and has issues with social issues with rules and conflict resolution, though he is performs at least one grade level above his age academically.
According to the red-shirting folks, his entry into first grade should have been delayed, which would have been a disastrous.
While he can be a handful when upset or frustrated, when he is bored, he's like Plutonium.
This is interesting,since the, "Boy Crisis" crowd, is aggressively holding boys back a year to deal with the delay in language development of young boys vs. young girls.
My, admitted anecdotal, information would suggest not to red-shirt.
My son, Charlie, is an Asperger's child, and as such, he is socially delayed, and has issues with social issues with rules and conflict resolution, though he is performs at least one grade level above his age academically.
According to the red-shirting folks, his entry into first grade should have been delayed, which would have been a disastrous.
While he can be a handful when upset or frustrated, when he is bored, he's like Plutonium.
Will the Last USAF Senior Staffer Pleas Turn off the Lights?
We have two more resignations of senior staff at the USAF, Ken Miller, special assistant for Air Force acquisition, and William Anderson, USAF logistics chief.
I think that the military in general, USAF specifically, need adult supervision to ensure that their procurement does not become too incompetent, and that their interactions with other services are too hostile, and this is blowback from Rumsfeld not giving a damn about this.
I think that the military in general, USAF specifically, need adult supervision to ensure that their procurement does not become too incompetent, and that their interactions with other services are too hostile, and this is blowback from Rumsfeld not giving a damn about this.
McCain's Brain
TPM has a nice takedown of Randy Scheunemann, who in addition to being corrupt, he's tied into the guy who sold access to the White House, is also an absolute horror show in terms of his policies.
Go read.
Go read.
Merrill Lynch Plans Another Multi-Billion Dollar Write-Down
Less than 2 weeks ago, Merrill Lynch declared huge quarterly losses, and now they are planing another $5.7 billion write down on CDOs (Collateralized Debt Obligations)
So many shoes have dropped at Wall Street that these companies resemble centipedes.
So many shoes have dropped at Wall Street that these companies resemble centipedes.
Blackwater May Have Broken Federal Laws???? Pshaw!!!
It looks like many of the contracts they secured were as a result of Blackwater fraudulently claiming to be a small business.
I'm stunned...not.
I'm stunned...not.
McCain Has a Lesion Removed
Allegedly non-cancerous, but this is at least the 2nd procedure he has had done for something like this in 2008.
DHS Plans to Use Color Coding to Help 'Phants in November Elections
The Department of Homeland Security is declaring a Period of Heightened Alert (POHA) for the election season.
This means that Bush and His Evil Minions™ will take the smallest rumor of a terrorist threat, inflate it beyond all credibility, and then try to scare the general public into voting Republican.
This means that Bush and His Evil Minions™ will take the smallest rumor of a terrorist threat, inflate it beyond all credibility, and then try to scare the general public into voting Republican.
Make Them Talk
It looks like the "F$#@ Coburn Omnibus" failed to get the necessary votes to end debate.
OK, fine. Stop letting the Republicans filibuster without talking. You already did that to Chris Dodd on civil liberties, so do it to Senator Tom Coburn.
Make them do a real filibuster.
OK, fine. Stop letting the Republicans filibuster without talking. You already did that to Chris Dodd on civil liberties, so do it to Senator Tom Coburn.
Make them do a real filibuster.
Andrea Fracking Mitchell Calls McCain Ad "Literally Not True"?
What has happened to the golden boy of the press corps?
Have we entered a good sort of Bizarro world where the media starts to realize how much they are in the tank for McCain?
Have we entered a good sort of Bizarro world where the media starts to realize how much they are in the tank for McCain?
Another Day, Another Financial Term
This time, it's "Covered Bond", and Sec Treasury Paulson is clarifying regulation to make them more attractive in the United States. (They are more common in Europe, particularly, according to the Wiki, Germany)
The difference between this and more common mortgage backed securities is that the banks have to keep the mortgages on their books, and the bonds are specifically secured with these bonds.
I don't think that this will make much of a difference.
Until house prices bottom out in absolute dollar terms, which means that inflation might save us, the housing market will remain sluggish to frozen.
The difference between this and more common mortgage backed securities is that the banks have to keep the mortgages on their books, and the bonds are specifically secured with these bonds.
I don't think that this will make much of a difference.
Until house prices bottom out in absolute dollar terms, which means that inflation might save us, the housing market will remain sluggish to frozen.
28 July 2008
Monica Goodling Thought that Partisan Politics Trumped Anti-Terror Efforts
Which is she passed over an experienced counterterrorism prosecutor because his wife was a Democrat.
Seriously, nothing trumps politics for Bush and His Evil Minions&trade.
Seriously, nothing trumps politics for Bush and His Evil Minions&trade.
Taser Death Heads to Grand Jury
Well it now appears that the Taser murder investigation is heading toward a grand jury (background here).
I do not expect an indictment. This is a dead black man, and the ex-cop who Tasered him 9 times after he was in handcuffs, Scott Nugent, has little to fear from a Louisiana jury.
Even if it goes to trial, you can expect Taser International to supply tens of thousands of dollars in expert testimony to the defendant saying that a Taser can't kill, because they know what happens if they get tagged with one death.
I do not expect an indictment. This is a dead black man, and the ex-cop who Tasered him 9 times after he was in handcuffs, Scott Nugent, has little to fear from a Louisiana jury.
Even if it goes to trial, you can expect Taser International to supply tens of thousands of dollars in expert testimony to the defendant saying that a Taser can't kill, because they know what happens if they get tagged with one death.
Liberals Need to Buy Guns, and Learn How to Use Them
That Tennessee whack job who shot up the Unitarian Universalist church did so because he wanted to kill liberals.
He opened fire in the middle of a children's play.
This is what a decade's long diet of hate radio gets you.
He opened fire in the middle of a children's play.
This is what a decade's long diet of hate radio gets you.
Why Amy Sullivan is a Complete Idiot
Amy Sullivan has always been a one note pundit: The Democratic party must reach out to religious voters, and protect them from those evil radical secularists who would make fun of them.
The problem there is very basic: there are no radical secularists in the leadership of the Democratic party.
For that matter, I believe that there has been one atheist who has ever served as a member of Congress, so she is talking about people who do not exist.
Now, she is prattling on about how Obama is making overt evangelical religiosity work for him.
First, she claims that Obama has "pivoted to announce that an Obama administration would fix, expand and elevate the faith-based initiative".
Except, of course, if these organizations take federal money, Obama won't allow them to discriminate on the basis of religion, and they will be subject to federal accounting and auditing standards, which has always been the case until Bush set up his own "faith based initiative."
The purpose of Bush's program was to ensure that there was neither fiscal accountability nor discrimination protection, so it is a complete refutation of Bush's program.
In fact, what is implied is that he will sweep up massive numbers of white evangelicals in so doing, even though the religious right demand that they be subject to no fiscal accountability and be given the right to discriminate.
The core message of the politicized right wing evangelical is hostility to integration and to minorities.
Similarly, when she lauds Bush's "Compassionate Conservativism", she does not understand, or more likely refuses to understand that this is a dog whistle to the religious right, referring to Marvin Olasky’s The Tragedy of American Compassion, which says that "true compassion" is not giving charity, because, "Compassion means tough love in which those who give must demand self-help from those who receive," which means let "black babies starve".
The religious Evangelical does not begin with Roe v. Wade and abortion, bur rather with Green v. Connally, which revoked the tax exempt status of discriminatory private religious schools.
So we can run a poll on religious affiliation vs. candidate support, and you can see that Obama is polling lower than either Kerry in 2004 or Gore in 2000. (h/t Talkleft on the poll)
Barack Obama has no chance of picking up white right wing Evangelical voters, and the votes he picks up from black Evangelicals and Hispanic Catholics are because the Republican party is implacably hostile to them.
Amy Sullivan is a one trick pony, but her pony is a dog, and I'll call her my "Wanker of the Day".
The problem there is very basic: there are no radical secularists in the leadership of the Democratic party.
For that matter, I believe that there has been one atheist who has ever served as a member of Congress, so she is talking about people who do not exist.
Now, she is prattling on about how Obama is making overt evangelical religiosity work for him.
First, she claims that Obama has "pivoted to announce that an Obama administration would fix, expand and elevate the faith-based initiative".
Except, of course, if these organizations take federal money, Obama won't allow them to discriminate on the basis of religion, and they will be subject to federal accounting and auditing standards, which has always been the case until Bush set up his own "faith based initiative."
The purpose of Bush's program was to ensure that there was neither fiscal accountability nor discrimination protection, so it is a complete refutation of Bush's program.
In fact, what is implied is that he will sweep up massive numbers of white evangelicals in so doing, even though the religious right demand that they be subject to no fiscal accountability and be given the right to discriminate.
The core message of the politicized right wing evangelical is hostility to integration and to minorities.
Similarly, when she lauds Bush's "Compassionate Conservativism", she does not understand, or more likely refuses to understand that this is a dog whistle to the religious right, referring to Marvin Olasky’s The Tragedy of American Compassion, which says that "true compassion" is not giving charity, because, "Compassion means tough love in which those who give must demand self-help from those who receive," which means let "black babies starve".
The religious Evangelical does not begin with Roe v. Wade and abortion, bur rather with Green v. Connally, which revoked the tax exempt status of discriminatory private religious schools.
So we can run a poll on religious affiliation vs. candidate support, and you can see that Obama is polling lower than either Kerry in 2004 or Gore in 2000. (h/t Talkleft on the poll)
Barack Obama has no chance of picking up white right wing Evangelical voters, and the votes he picks up from black Evangelicals and Hispanic Catholics are because the Republican party is implacably hostile to them.
Amy Sullivan is a one trick pony, but her pony is a dog, and I'll call her my "Wanker of the Day".
2008 Deficit Hits Record
The official number is $482 billion, but with the slowing economy, I expect it to pass ½ trillion.
Robert Novak Reported to Have Brain Tumor
Absent any evidence that this is some sort of attempt to avoid criminal or civil liability on his hit and run, I will take this report at face value.
Best wishes to his family.
Best wishes to his family.
Wearing Out the Batteries on "Straight Talk"
Well, it's starting to look like NBC has found limits to their man-crush on John McCain (see also here), and are starting to actually report on what he says, and what it means.
Additionally, it appears that McCain may be losing Chuck Hagel on his scurrilous attack ads.
I had thought that there were no limits to the amount of excuses that the beltway kule kidz would supply for McCain, but it appears that I was wrong, at least for ABC (earlier posts) and MSNBC.
The WaPo, still appears to be alibiing with the best of them though.
Additionally, it appears that McCain may be losing Chuck Hagel on his scurrilous attack ads.
I had thought that there were no limits to the amount of excuses that the beltway kule kidz would supply for McCain, but it appears that I was wrong, at least for ABC (earlier posts) and MSNBC.
The WaPo, still appears to be alibiing with the best of them though.
Economics Update
The dollar is down relative to the Euro, because the further deterioration in the credit markets makes Fed rate hikes unlikely, though the US dollar has strengthened against the Canadian dollar, because oil has been down so much recently, which means that the Canadian trade surplus to the US, they are the US's largest external oil supplier.
It looks to me like the financial markets are continuing their slow motion car wreck.
Banks are tightening business loans and commercial paper, decreasing total lending by 3%, and requiring much higher interest rates to account for the uncertainty.
As to what foreign investors are doing, I can't speak for all of them, but Russia has cut investment in Fannie and Freddie by 50%, and the international monetary fund sees no light at the end of the tunnel on the housing crash.
The result is fairly straightforward, much tighter money, particularly for entities like Lehman, which has seen its borrowing costs skyrocket. They are now 7.7%, 6 months ago they were 5.2% for a 5 year bond.
This is a 4.2% premium US Treasury notes, which is about double the number in early January.
In energy, oil is up about $1/bbl today, largely on Iran concerns, but retail gasoline prices have continued to fall.
It looks to me like the financial markets are continuing their slow motion car wreck.
Banks are tightening business loans and commercial paper, decreasing total lending by 3%, and requiring much higher interest rates to account for the uncertainty.
As to what foreign investors are doing, I can't speak for all of them, but Russia has cut investment in Fannie and Freddie by 50%, and the international monetary fund sees no light at the end of the tunnel on the housing crash.
The result is fairly straightforward, much tighter money, particularly for entities like Lehman, which has seen its borrowing costs skyrocket. They are now 7.7%, 6 months ago they were 5.2% for a 5 year bond.
This is a 4.2% premium US Treasury notes, which is about double the number in early January.
In energy, oil is up about $1/bbl today, largely on Iran concerns, but retail gasoline prices have continued to fall.
Department of Justice Broke Law on Hiring
Representatives of Bush and His Evil Minions™ at the Justice Department routinely broke the law in the hiring of career lawyers.
In particular Monica Goodling and Kyle Sampson aggressively selected on the basis of partisan affiliation.
Bush's butt boy at the DoJ, Michael Mukasey, released a statement that he is, "disturbed" by these developments, but I see no suggestion of actual prosecution.
There can be no greater threat to the nation than when political partisanship is used to corrupt the administration of justice.
In particular Monica Goodling and Kyle Sampson aggressively selected on the basis of partisan affiliation.
Bush's butt boy at the DoJ, Michael Mukasey, released a statement that he is, "disturbed" by these developments, but I see no suggestion of actual prosecution.
There can be no greater threat to the nation than when political partisanship is used to corrupt the administration of justice.
Lawrence Summers Calls for Nationalization of GSEs
He is suggesting that if the GSEs do actually need a bailout, that the government should operate them for some period of years:
We need the GSEs to be highly active in support of the housing market and financial system in the months ahead. If authorities can see a path to their being able to play such a role in a framework where their borrowing is based on confidence in their financial position, rather than primarily on federal guarantees, then this is obviously the preferred alternative. But after what we have seen, such a judgment cannot be based on the GSEs' own claims, the understandable desire of government officials to maintain confidence and attract private capital, or the fact that the GSEs are able to borrow -- which only reflects the strength of federally provided credit assurances.It should be noted that Fannie Mae was a federal agency from the late 1930s to the late 1960s.
If this preferred alternative is, as I fear, not realistic given the state of GSE finances, the government should use its new receivership power to protect taxpayers and the financial system. In the process, payments to stockholders, holders of preferred stock and probably subordinated debtholders would be wiped out, conserving cash for the benefit of taxpayers. The GSEs' borrowing costs would fall considerably, helping prospective homeowners.
In this scenario, the government would operate the GSEs as public corporations for several years. They would then be in a position to extend credit where appropriate to support resolution of the housing crisis. Once the crisis has passed, the federal government would divide their functions into government and private components, the latter of which would be sold off in multiple pieces. The proceeds could be used to fund the low-income housing support activity that was previously mandated to the GSEs.
Weakening New Labour May See Return of Old Labour
It looks like following a Labour drubbing in Glasgow, Gordon Brown's hometown, we are starting to see labor return to policies that benefit working folk, at least to the degree that they are absolutely forced to do so.
Labor has agreed to lower the age for the full minimum wage to 21. Previously £5.52 had applied to workers over 22, with those from 18-21 getting £4.60, and those from 16-18 getting £3.40.
Additionally, Brown acceded to demands for increased parental leave and to limit private contractors in the NHS.
It appears that in addition to the pasting taken in the Glasgow election, Labor's campaign donations have shrunk, and so the party is more dependent on affiliation fees.
I sincerely hope that this is a death knell for the "third way" corporate suckups.
Labor has agreed to lower the age for the full minimum wage to 21. Previously £5.52 had applied to workers over 22, with those from 18-21 getting £4.60, and those from 16-18 getting £3.40.
Additionally, Brown acceded to demands for increased parental leave and to limit private contractors in the NHS.
It appears that in addition to the pasting taken in the Glasgow election, Labor's campaign donations have shrunk, and so the party is more dependent on affiliation fees.
I sincerely hope that this is a death knell for the "third way" corporate suckups.
What the F&^% is Wrong With the Obama Veep Team?!?!
Ann Veneman??? They are floating the name of Ann Veneman as a name under consideration?
She's a Republican, she prevented farmers from testing their cows for Mad Cow disease, and she is a former member of the Bush administration.
These folks want a former Bushie as Vice President?
Obama needs to get whoever is leaking this to STFU, and to get whoever suggested this to STFU too.
BTW, it turns out that The Nation is all over this, and goes into some more detail, calling Veneman "uniquely awful":
Note that the original source is Politico, and so is a bit suspect though.
She's a Republican, she prevented farmers from testing their cows for Mad Cow disease, and she is a former member of the Bush administration.
These folks want a former Bushie as Vice President?
Obama needs to get whoever is leaking this to STFU, and to get whoever suggested this to STFU too.
BTW, it turns out that The Nation is all over this, and goes into some more detail, calling Veneman "uniquely awful":
- Her political strength is in California, which is redundant.
- The rural and farmer communities distrust her, and in fact booed her when she visited "fly over" country.
- Her background is as a vociferously absolutist supporter of free trade deals.
- Her tenure as Ag Secretary was, "strictly pro-agribusiness, pro-pesticide company, pro-pharmaceutical."
- Is a big supporter of Frankenfoods.
Note that the original source is Politico, and so is a bit suspect though.
Is the Media Beginning to Explore the Hypocrisy That is John McCain?
John McCain has argued that Barack Obama has not attended enough hearings on Afghanistan. Well, ABC News' Z. Byron Wolf burnt a very small amount of shoe leather, and determined that McCain has attended no hearing on at all on Afghanistan in the past two years, though McCain is apparently asking for a get out of jail free card on this because, "McCain's years of previous foreign policy experience make up for his recent lack of attendance at hearing."
It's amazing that the McCain loving press is actually mentioning that he's criticizing Obama for things he's done worse.
It's amazing that the McCain loving press is actually mentioning that he's criticizing Obama for things he's done worse.
27 July 2008
Not a Bug, a Feature
It turns out that the creation of Medicare Part D by the Republican congress has resulted in a 30% increase in payments for drugs as compared to Medicaid, as was previously done.
Let's see:
Let's see:
- Hastening the financial collapse of a hated by Republicans, but very popular government program, medicare?
- Getting money to big pharma which donates to the 'Phants?
Economics Update
Wekk, retail gasoline has finally dropped below $4.00 per gallon, the first time in almost two months, oil moved very little, depending on grade, somewhere between ±$0.15/bbl.
Meanwhile, Nouriel Roubini is arguing that foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds are increasingly less willing to take huge losses in order to bail the USA's financial system out, and that this will lead to a systemic collapse, with, "ensuing fall of the U.S. will make this fire sale of the best U.S. private asset a true bargain basement deal: with the dollar price of these assets now imploding and with the U.S. dollar now in free fall non-residents will be able to buy most of U.S. Inc. for the cheapest bargain."
One final note, and some information that shocked me, is the amount which short sales decreased in financial stocks as a result of the new SEC rules banning "naked" short selling: 98%.
S3 Matching Technologies is reporting that short sales in the newly regulated stocks fell by a factor of 50, which is far more than I would have expected.
Even if some of the decline in short sales was investors who were spooked by the new rules, it's clear that the overwhelming number of short sellers are engaging in "naked" shorting.
Meanwhile, Nouriel Roubini is arguing that foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds are increasingly less willing to take huge losses in order to bail the USA's financial system out, and that this will lead to a systemic collapse, with, "ensuing fall of the U.S. will make this fire sale of the best U.S. private asset a true bargain basement deal: with the dollar price of these assets now imploding and with the U.S. dollar now in free fall non-residents will be able to buy most of U.S. Inc. for the cheapest bargain."
One final note, and some information that shocked me, is the amount which short sales decreased in financial stocks as a result of the new SEC rules banning "naked" short selling: 98%.
S3 Matching Technologies is reporting that short sales in the newly regulated stocks fell by a factor of 50, which is far more than I would have expected.
Even if some of the decline in short sales was investors who were spooked by the new rules, it's clear that the overwhelming number of short sellers are engaging in "naked" shorting.
Zimbabwe Update
Both the European Union and the United States have expanded sanctions against Zimbabwe
As to the negotiations that have been going on for a few days, we have the ZANU-PF saying that the results of the runoff are 'Non-Negotiable', but that could be put down to normal gamesmanship in any negotiation.
As to what will happen in the negotiations, the The Grauniad* and the Times of London have two diametrically opposed views of what is happening next, with the Guardian suggesting that the talks are a ploy, and that Mugabe is using them for time to prepare for even more extreme violence against the opposition, and the Times of London suggesting that South Africa is insisting that Robert Mugabe and his allies to surrender real power in Zimbabwe.
I think that the Times is wrong for a number of reasons. First, as the Guardian notes, this sort of negotiation has happened before, in the late 1980s with Joshua Nkomo's ZAPU party, with no real power devolving to ZAPU, and second because it would be completely out of character for Thabo Mbeki to insist that Robert Mugabe do anything.
I expect it to get much worse before it gets better.
*According to the Wiki, The Guardian, formerly the Manchester Guardian in the UK. It's nicknamed the Grauniad because of its penchant for typographical errors, "The nickname The Grauniad for the paper originated with the satirical magazine Private Eye. It came about because of its reputation for frequent and sometimes unintentionally amusing typographical errors, hence the popular myth that the paper once misspelled its own name on the page one masthead as The Gaurdian, though many recall the more inventive The Grauniad."
As to the negotiations that have been going on for a few days, we have the ZANU-PF saying that the results of the runoff are 'Non-Negotiable', but that could be put down to normal gamesmanship in any negotiation.
As to what will happen in the negotiations, the The Grauniad* and the Times of London have two diametrically opposed views of what is happening next, with the Guardian suggesting that the talks are a ploy, and that Mugabe is using them for time to prepare for even more extreme violence against the opposition, and the Times of London suggesting that South Africa is insisting that Robert Mugabe and his allies to surrender real power in Zimbabwe.
I think that the Times is wrong for a number of reasons. First, as the Guardian notes, this sort of negotiation has happened before, in the late 1980s with Joshua Nkomo's ZAPU party, with no real power devolving to ZAPU, and second because it would be completely out of character for Thabo Mbeki to insist that Robert Mugabe do anything.
I expect it to get much worse before it gets better.
*According to the Wiki, The Guardian, formerly the Manchester Guardian in the UK. It's nicknamed the Grauniad because of its penchant for typographical errors, "The nickname The Grauniad for the paper originated with the satirical magazine Private Eye. It came about because of its reputation for frequent and sometimes unintentionally amusing typographical errors, hence the popular myth that the paper once misspelled its own name on the page one masthead as The Gaurdian, though many recall the more inventive The Grauniad."
Whatever the Hell is Going on with John Edwards
I've Google Newsed it, and I'm still unsure as to what the straight dope on this is.
Obviously, whether the allegations of an affair are true or false, it's depressing in either case.
Obviously, whether the allegations of an affair are true or false, it's depressing in either case.
Thabo Mbeki Can Kiss My Shiny Metal Ass
Well, it appears that Thabo Mbeki, the friend of brutal genocidal rulers everywhere, is "concerned" about the possibility of crimes against humanity indictments against Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, because it might make negotiations more difficult.
Once again, we see that there is no tyrant, no mater how homicidal, that Mbeki does not feel compelled to embrace.
He spent years claiming that HIV does not cause AIDS, and when public pressure required a reversal on that, he decided to create his own, "save the tyrants," charity.
Once again, we see that there is no tyrant, no mater how homicidal, that Mbeki does not feel compelled to embrace.
He spent years claiming that HIV does not cause AIDS, and when public pressure required a reversal on that, he decided to create his own, "save the tyrants," charity.
Chrysler Gets Hammered by Leased SUV Returns, Gets Out of Leasing
It turns out that they are getting hammered as people return fuel hungry SUVs at the end of their lease, and no one wants to buy them.
Leasing used to be a major money supply for the auto makers, and now Chrysler is getting out effective August 1.
Leasing used to be a major money supply for the auto makers, and now Chrysler is getting out effective August 1.
And the Noose Tightens Around Kurt Weldon
You may recall that I wrote about lobbyist friend of former Congressman Curt Weldon Cecelia Grimes, who dumped her Blackberry in the trash at a at an Arbys.
Well, now she has pled guilty on destruction of evidence, and faces as much as 20 years in the slam.
The fact that she has pled out implies some sort of deal, and I think that Kurt, who currently spends his days trying to cut shady deals on Russian military equipment, is going down.
Well, now she has pled guilty on destruction of evidence, and faces as much as 20 years in the slam.
The fact that she has pled out implies some sort of deal, and I think that Kurt, who currently spends his days trying to cut shady deals on Russian military equipment, is going down.
Epic Fail: Condoleeza Edition
Condoleeza Rice, once more attempting to make the world look like it did before the USSR collapsed, has failed again, this time in attempting to form a NATO style security union.
In 1992, she suggested that Boris Yeltsin not be accorded the formalities of a head of state, because she thought that the USSR was coming back "real soon now", and since then, she has done her level best to recreate a Soviet style menace out of Russia.
I imagine it's because her so called area of expertise (see the Yeltsin example above), the USSR, has gone away, and so she is trying to recreate academic relevance.
Don't worry dear, you sucked at being a Sovietologist too.
In 1992, she suggested that Boris Yeltsin not be accorded the formalities of a head of state, because she thought that the USSR was coming back "real soon now", and since then, she has done her level best to recreate a Soviet style menace out of Russia.
I imagine it's because her so called area of expertise (see the Yeltsin example above), the USSR, has gone away, and so she is trying to recreate academic relevance.
Don't worry dear, you sucked at being a Sovietologist too.
Cost of 'Stealth' Housing Bailout: $1.43 Trillion
Steve Liesman at CNBC Runs the numbers on the housing bailout to this point:
Ouch.
| Federal Reserve | $446 B | Term Auction Facilities, $150 B, Bear $29 B, $14 B Discount Window to Banks, Repurchase Agreements $88 B, Swap Lines to Euro banks $65B, Treasuries lent out for liquidity boost $100 B |
| Federal Home Loan Bank | $274 B | Advances to member banks |
| Fannie and Freddie | $621 B | |
| FHA | $90 B | Added since October |
| Total | $1431 B |
Ouch.
Venn Diagram of Bush High Crimes and Misdemeanors
Slate has a good analysis of the various serious crimes of Bush and His Evil Minions™.
Note that this is just those crimes where the action at its core is wrong and official in nature, torture, illegal surveillance, illegal political hirign, and illegal political firings.
They even have an interactive Venn diagram (what's below is just an image) of the whole sordid mess.
Surprisingly enough Abu Gonzalez is at the center of it all.
Note that this is just those crimes where the action at its core is wrong and official in nature, torture, illegal surveillance, illegal political hirign, and illegal political firings.
They even have an interactive Venn diagram (what's below is just an image) of the whole sordid mess.
Surprisingly enough Abu Gonzalez is at the center of it all.
Senate Passes Housing Bill
It already passed the house, so it will go to Bush, who says that he will sign it.
My guess on the total effect, very little, since there is no mechanism to encourage lenders to actually cut a deal.
The single thing that would help the most, and it would cost the government nothing would be to allow bankruptcy judges to modify mortgages for primary residences, as they can for investment and vacation property.
Maybe after January 21.
My guess on the total effect, very little, since there is no mechanism to encourage lenders to actually cut a deal.
The single thing that would help the most, and it would cost the government nothing would be to allow bankruptcy judges to modify mortgages for primary residences, as they can for investment and vacation property.
Maybe after January 21.
USAF Looking at Non-Pilot UAV Operators
At this level of development, allowing non-pilot technicians to fly drones is a good idea.
Of course, the other services are already doing this, and the former head of the UAV program had his blue clad ass canned over not supplying enough coverage, which probably has a lot to do with it.
Of course, the other services are already doing this, and the former head of the UAV program had his blue clad ass canned over not supplying enough coverage, which probably has a lot to do with it.
DDG-1000 Procurement Halted at 2 Ships
This is a good move, the ships are too big and too expensive, costing at least 2½ times that of the Arleigh Burkes that they are to replace.
Susan Collins, the Senator fromBath Iron Works Maine, one of the two shipyards constructing the Zumwalt's, appears to be resigned to the termination of the program, though she wants more Burkes to be constructed, which are also made at BIW, which indicates that Congress won't ram more DDG-1000s this down the Navy's throat.
I would expect to see some investigation on integrating some of the DDG 1000 specific systems into the Burkes, specifically, the SPY-3 radar and the 155mm Advanced Gun System.
Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Admiral Gary Roughead, has been highly critical of the program since his appointment in September, 2007, and sent a letter to Sen. Ted Kennedy saying that the DDG-1000 would not be cheaper to opperate than the DDG-51 Burkes.
Susan Collins, the Senator from
I would expect to see some investigation on integrating some of the DDG 1000 specific systems into the Burkes, specifically, the SPY-3 radar and the 155mm Advanced Gun System.
Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Admiral Gary Roughead, has been highly critical of the program since his appointment in September, 2007, and sent a letter to Sen. Ted Kennedy saying that the DDG-1000 would not be cheaper to opperate than the DDG-51 Burkes.
Rolls Royce Looking at Trades Between Time on Wing and Fuel Consumption
RR is starting to look at the future of air transport propulsion, and it has everything on the table right now, including increasing maintenance to reduce fuel burn, which is as close to heresy as you can find in commercial aviation.
Time on wing has been king for a very long time. It's one of the things that allowed early jet liners to beat their piston, and to a lesser degree turboprop (gearbox maintenance), competitors: that the could stay in service, and flying for a very long time.
It's an interesting testament to the changes wrought by the increasing oil price spike, and it convinces me that open-rotor propulsion will make it to commercial use this time around.
Time on wing has been king for a very long time. It's one of the things that allowed early jet liners to beat their piston, and to a lesser degree turboprop (gearbox maintenance), competitors: that the could stay in service, and flying for a very long time.
It's an interesting testament to the changes wrought by the increasing oil price spike, and it convinces me that open-rotor propulsion will make it to commercial use this time around.
Euros Look to Man Rate ATV-ARV by 2020
They intend to make the automated cargo vehicle a manned space capsule in the next 12 years.
The ESA is already working on the Advanced Return Vehicle (ARV), which add a 1.5 tonne return capability to the existing Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV), and the manned vehicle would be similar to the ARV, though it would likely have a smaller propulsion section, as it would not be expected to boost the space station orbit.
The ESA is already working on the Advanced Return Vehicle (ARV), which add a 1.5 tonne return capability to the existing Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV), and the manned vehicle would be similar to the ARV, though it would likely have a smaller propulsion section, as it would not be expected to boost the space station orbit.
AFRL Develops Vampire UAV
the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory has contracted with Defense Research Associates to create an electrically powered micro-UAVv that recharges using magnetic induction while sitting on a power line. (Paid Subscription Required)
It weigh 6 lbs, and has a wingspan of 4 feet.
It weigh 6 lbs, and has a wingspan of 4 feet.
26 July 2008
Two More US Banks Seized by FDIC
The FDIC and the Comptroller of the Currency seized First National Bank of Nevada and First Heritage Bank NA of California, and sold them to Mutual of Omaha.
There have been 7 banks closed in just under the first 7 months of the year, but three of those were seized in the last two weeks.
I expect bank failures for 2008 to exceed 30.
There have been 7 banks closed in just under the first 7 months of the year, but three of those were seized in the last two weeks.
I expect bank failures for 2008 to exceed 30.
Real Snail Mail
Really. Email that is taken in, carried by a snail using an RFID Chip, and a
To paraphrase Styx, someone has "too much time on their hands."
To paraphrase Styx, someone has "too much time on their hands."
Preemptive Nuclear War is Now Off the Table
For a while, at least.
The plan called CONPLAN 8022, was withdrawn by U.S. Strategic Command.
My guess is that this is the lame duck effect yet again, thank God.
The plan called CONPLAN 8022, was withdrawn by U.S. Strategic Command.
My guess is that this is the lame duck effect yet again, thank God.
Another Day, Another Defense Procurement Clusterf$#@
Lockheed and the C-5M, up 108% from last year.
We gotta frog march some of these execs out of their offices in hand cuffs.
We gotta frog march some of these execs out of their offices in hand cuffs.
Something Else Over Budget on the JSF
The engine, or more specifically, the Pratt & Whitney F-135, to the tune of at least $850 million.
I'm not sure if this is an excuse to kill the alternate GE/RR F-136, or to keep funding it to keep them honest.
I'm not sure if this is an excuse to kill the alternate GE/RR F-136, or to keep funding it to keep them honest.
Seriously, the Indian Defense Establishment is the Most Fracked Up Military-Industrial Complex on the Face of the Earth
I just saw this press release from the Indian government about the Nag anti-tank missile.
It's supposedly a "third generation anti-tank missile", and it's supposed to undergo final trials in the next week or so, but the missile has been 22 years in development.
22 years? For an anti-tank missile?
That is completely whack, and once again the initials DRDO (Defence Research and Development Organization), a government agency and defense contractor, which figures prominently in this absurdity.
Perhaps, shuttering the organization, bulldozing the buildings, burning the rubble, encapsulating the ashes in concrete, and starting afresh in establishing an indigenous defense establishment would help, because, based on the performance that I've seen, this is the most screwed up defense procurement establishment in the world.
It's supposedly a "third generation anti-tank missile", and it's supposed to undergo final trials in the next week or so, but the missile has been 22 years in development.
22 years? For an anti-tank missile?
That is completely whack, and once again the initials DRDO (Defence Research and Development Organization), a government agency and defense contractor, which figures prominently in this absurdity.
Perhaps, shuttering the organization, bulldozing the buildings, burning the rubble, encapsulating the ashes in concrete, and starting afresh in establishing an indigenous defense establishment would help, because, based on the performance that I've seen, this is the most screwed up defense procurement establishment in the world.
EADS Looks for U.S. A400M Partner in Push for Pentagon Sales
The weak dollar, which has increasingly made US labor attractive to the Europeans may be a contributing factor, but the EADS' discussions with Northrop-Grumman and Lockheed-Martin for final assembly (Paid Subscription Required) are really all about getting access to the US military market.
Airbus Says A320 W/GTF Could Be Ready in 30 Months
They are saying that it would take two and half years to integrate P&W's geared turbofan into the A320.
The end date would depend on when they started, and at this point, a stumbling block would be that P&W is not releasing maintenance costs specifics.
When one considers the fact that what killed Thielert was the frequency of maintenance, and that the primary concern over the GTF is maintenance, so I would not expect any effort to integrate the engine until Pratt & Whitney either gives some guarantees, or there is some data on the wing in commercial service.
The end date would depend on when they started, and at this point, a stumbling block would be that P&W is not releasing maintenance costs specifics.
When one considers the fact that what killed Thielert was the frequency of maintenance, and that the primary concern over the GTF is maintenance, so I would not expect any effort to integrate the engine until Pratt & Whitney either gives some guarantees, or there is some data on the wing in commercial service.
25 July 2008
Epic Fail
So, WaPo scribe Krissah Williams Thompson is talking with some young Republicans at a bar, that she describes as, "A who's who of young conservatives," and they are bumming.
Let's see, we have:
When you are failures, you are supposed to feel bad.
Let's see, we have:
- The 20-something who helped steer Fred Thompson's Internet operation.
- The young woman who put Mitt Romney's Web site on the map.
- A 24-year-old staffer for Newt Gingrich's American Solutions for Winning the Future.
- Editor in chief of the Heritage Foundation's Web site.
- A full time blogger at Townhall.com.
When you are failures, you are supposed to feel bad.
Fitch Now Predicting ANOTHER 25% Drop in House Prices
This was a part of their updating their ResiLogic mortgage loss model, which is used to rate residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS), and they now believe that in constant dollar terms, residential real estate will fall 25% over the next 5 years.
Peak to trough, local housing bubbles bursting are typically 5 years, but this is far more widespread, and the bubble is far frothier.
I think that they are too optimistic. They ignore the size of the bubble, the national nature of the bubble, and the fact that unsustainably low interests created the bubble.
I agree with Rich Toscano's assessment he did two years ago, which was far grimmer, (a 3-parter, see here, here, and here), though it should be noted that it's primarily about San Diego, one of the frothier markets before the bubble burst.
Peak to trough, local housing bubbles bursting are typically 5 years, but this is far more widespread, and the bubble is far frothier.
I think that they are too optimistic. They ignore the size of the bubble, the national nature of the bubble, and the fact that unsustainably low interests created the bubble.
I agree with Rich Toscano's assessment he did two years ago, which was far grimmer, (a 3-parter, see here, here, and here), though it should be noted that it's primarily about San Diego, one of the frothier markets before the bubble burst.
What a Bunch of F&%$ing Whiners
Yes, we are now seeing hand wringing from the pampered self-centered Washington press corps.
The example given is when Adam Nagourney and Megan Thee write a piss-poor article on polling about Obama, Poll Finds Obama Isn't Closing Divide on Race, and he's offended, when the Obama campaign launches a point by point rebuttal that makes him look like a complete pratt.
If you don't want to look like a pratt, stop being one.
The press needs to get over itself.
The example given is when Adam Nagourney and Megan Thee write a piss-poor article on polling about Obama, Poll Finds Obama Isn't Closing Divide on Race, and he's offended, when the Obama campaign launches a point by point rebuttal that makes him look like a complete pratt.
If you don't want to look like a pratt, stop being one.
The press needs to get over itself.
Economics Update
It sounds like good news, durable goods orders went higher in June, but it was almost entirely due to defense related purchases.
Real estate is pretty much bad news too, with 2nd quarter foreclosures up 120% year over year, and new home sales down, though not as crappy as expected.
Meanwhile, the National Australia Bank is writing down 90% of its mortgage backed securities, which is a realistic, if somewhat alarming valuation of these instruments.
In the world of retail, we have Rumors that Boscov's is near collapse. They're local, so maybe there will be some deals as a result.
More generally, oil and retail gasoline are down, and the dollar is mixed against world currencies.
Real estate is pretty much bad news too, with 2nd quarter foreclosures up 120% year over year, and new home sales down, though not as crappy as expected.
Meanwhile, the National Australia Bank is writing down 90% of its mortgage backed securities, which is a realistic, if somewhat alarming valuation of these instruments.
In the world of retail, we have Rumors that Boscov's is near collapse. They're local, so maybe there will be some deals as a result.
More generally, oil and retail gasoline are down, and the dollar is mixed against world currencies.
New Stock Market Terms
Courtesy of WallStreetJackass:
CEO --Chief Embezzlement Officer.Read the rest at the site...It's a hoot.
CFO-- Corporate Fraud Officer.
BULL MARKET -- A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.
BEAR MARKET -- A 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.
....
The Next Thing to Kill You: Granite Countertops
Well, it looks like someone has finally noticed that granite actually contains small quantities of Uranium which decay into Radon gas.
Ummm...I've know that for years, but I went to school in New England, where granite is a major source of Radon.
Had a discussion with Harry Stubbs, pen name Hal Clement, where he said that his being in a trench about a mile from a nuclear blast in the 1950s exposed him to less radiation than hanging in his basement..He ran the numbers for us, actually.
The amount of radiation is small, but it might effect resale value, so if you are getting the counters installed, you might want to have a technician measure the radiation level before installation.
Ummm...I've know that for years, but I went to school in New England, where granite is a major source of Radon.
Had a discussion with Harry Stubbs, pen name Hal Clement, where he said that his being in a trench about a mile from a nuclear blast in the 1950s exposed him to less radiation than hanging in his basement..He ran the numbers for us, actually.
The amount of radiation is small, but it might effect resale value, so if you are getting the counters installed, you might want to have a technician measure the radiation level before installation.
Finally
The State Department is increasing the number of visas available to Iraqi workers who are not at risk of life and limb.
This has been a problem for over 5 years, and they are finally addressing it.
My guess is that someone ran the numbers, and determined that enough of them had fled to other countries, or had been killed, that they would not have too much demand.
This has been a problem for over 5 years, and they are finally addressing it.
My guess is that someone ran the numbers, and determined that enough of them had fled to other countries, or had been killed, that they would not have too much demand.
Conflicting Claims on Russian Bombers in Cuba
Well we have Izvestia claiming that Russian bomber crews were surveying sites in Cuba for suitability, and we have a Russian defense ministry spokesman denying the reports.
My guess would be that there are no plans, but someone in the Russian establishment wants there to be some.
My guess would be that there are no plans, but someone in the Russian establishment wants there to be some.
More Bad IP Legislation
Well, it appears that Senator Patrick Leahy has merged two draconian IP bills to create a bill that combines the worst of both.
I think that the problem is two fold:
I think that the problem is two fold:
- The large IP driven businesses know that their business model exists only because of government support, so they spend lavishly.
- That IP enforcement has been defined as ownership, when it is merely an exclusive license granted for the benefit of society.
- Doubling of penalties
- The authorization of federal prosecutors to use civil suits, where the burden of evidence is 50%+1
- Confiscation of any property tangentially involved, like computers and houses.
- The creation of an IP "Czar", which would necessarily lead to an expansive and aggressive policy towards pursuing the law, as it is how the "Czar's" office would justify its existence.
House Races Shifting Democratic
CQ politics 14 districts have shifted in a Democratic direction. Good stuff, though I could deal without Melissa Bean.
DADT on the Block
It looks like the worm is finally turning on the antedeluvian Don't Ask Don't Tell policy of the US Military,with Congress looking at changing the law.
Of course, Elaine Donnelly, president of the Center for Military Readiness, a right wing group, claims that it will drive away too many allegedly straight soldiers, but honestly this is not likely to be the case, and as the people most likely to leave are those who are attempting to make the US military an explicitly Evangelical Christian institution, it's a net win for everyone.
We get needed skilled soldiers, and the religious whack-jobs who are creating a religiously hostile institution in contravention of good military order.
Of course, Elaine Donnelly, president of the Center for Military Readiness, a right wing group, claims that it will drive away too many allegedly straight soldiers, but honestly this is not likely to be the case, and as the people most likely to leave are those who are attempting to make the US military an explicitly Evangelical Christian institution, it's a net win for everyone.
We get needed skilled soldiers, and the religious whack-jobs who are creating a religiously hostile institution in contravention of good military order.
Every Major Senate Democratic Challenger Announces Support for Network Neutrality
Matt Stoller Reports that every major Senate Democratic challenger supports network neutrality:
Cool.
| Candidate | State | Contributions fromTelecom/Cable | Position | |
| Allen | ME | $2500 | Favors | |
| Begich | AK | $0 | Favors | |
| Franken | MN | $62,650 | Favors | |
| Hagan | NC | $0 | Favors | |
| Kleeb | NE | $0 | Favors | |
| LaRocco | ID | $4,600 | Favors | |
| Lunsford | KY | $0 | Favors | |
| Merkley | OR | $0 | Favors | |
| Musgrove | MS (B) | $0 | Favors | |
| Noriega | TX | $0 | Favors | |
| Rice | OK | $0 | Favors | |
| Shaheen | NH | $0 | Favors | |
| Slattery | KS | $2,800 | Favors | |
| Udall | CO | $54,450 | Favors | |
| Udall | NM | $0 | Favors | |
| Warner | VA | $45,050 | Favors |
Cool.
And the Always Reliably Clueless Michelle Malkin Strikes Again
(No link to her, not ever)
It appears that Michelle Malkin is screaming * about the fund raising success of a challenger to John Murtha for congress, one William Russell.
The guy hasn't campaigned, but he's raised nearly $1 million, so Michelle Malkin is jumping around like a cheerleader with cerebral palsey.†
The kicker is that this money has come from a corrupt Republican direct mail fund raising outfit called BMW direct, which has a history of raising lots of money for long shot candidates, and then eating up pretty much all of the money raised through their fees, and for fees from consultants close to the firm:
*Yes, I know, she's always screaming.
†Actually she does "jumping around like a cheerleader with cerebral palsey" bit a lot. Have you seen the video of her in a cheerleader outfit‡ cheering "Defeatocrats"?
‡As to why she has a cheerleading outfit when it's clear that she was never a cheerleader, that's between her and Jesse Malkin, her husband, and I really don't want to know the details.
It appears that Michelle Malkin is screaming * about the fund raising success of a challenger to John Murtha for congress, one William Russell.
The guy hasn't campaigned, but he's raised nearly $1 million, so Michelle Malkin is jumping around like a cheerleader with cerebral palsey.†
The kicker is that this money has come from a corrupt Republican direct mail fund raising outfit called BMW direct, which has a history of raising lots of money for long shot candidates, and then eating up pretty much all of the money raised through their fees, and for fees from consultants close to the firm:
In the most recent quarter Russell raised $669,534, almost all from out-of-state donors who presumably are on BMW Direct's list of self-styled conservatives with a good track record of responding to direct-mail fundraising.Of course, if Ms. Malkin really thought about what would benefit the Republican party, though she's not paid to think, she would realize that folks like BMW direct are a cancer on her party, and direct some of her venom against them.
At the same time, he spent $442,990, almost all of it on expenses related to the direct mail effort and paid to BMW Direct and its affiliates (some of which share the same downtown Washington office).
The only expenses that appear to be spent on an actual campaign totaled about $20,000 for Web site design, a low-budget video and a campaign consultant based in Pennsylvania rather than Washington.
He reports having $269,953 in cash on hand. But he also reports debts totaling $242,521 -- almost all for direct mail expenses to BMW Direct and its vendors.
So that leaves him only about $27,431 ahead -- not much for a guy who's raised a total of nearly $1 million this election cycle.
*Yes, I know, she's always screaming.
†Actually she does "jumping around like a cheerleader with cerebral palsey" bit a lot. Have you seen the video of her in a cheerleader outfit‡ cheering "Defeatocrats"?
‡As to why she has a cheerleading outfit when it's clear that she was never a cheerleader, that's between her and Jesse Malkin, her husband, and I really don't want to know the details.
Just in Case You are Wondering How Serious Congress is About Corruption, We Have an Answer
That is clear from the appointments made to the so-called ethics review board in the House of Representatives, where Nancy Pelosi has made Porter Goss co-chairman of the board.
If you recall, Goss was forced to resign from the CIA when a hooker/lobbyist scandal tied into the Randall "Duke" Cunningham affair hit the news, and tied him to those involved.
Un-fracking-believable.
DAP to be Eliminated in Housing Bill
About f$@#ing Time
I've mentioned the Downpayment Assistance Program before, and it's one of the worst scams in real estate, and the housing rescue bill shuts it down.
The FHA requires a down payment of 3%, and "non-profit" agencies will front the money to the buyer. That money, plus what is typically a $500 fee, comes from the seller, who raises the price of his house to cover it, effectively meaning that the buyer pays an additional $500 (plus taxes and commission) to create a phony downpayment.
Huzzah!
Will the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board Be Ruled Unconstitutional?
If the PCAOB is ruled unconstitutional, because there is no severability clause, all of Sarbanes-Oxley would be ruled unconstitutional, and it would mean a return to mythology based accounting practices.
It's before the DC Circuit Court of Appeals, and there is a fairly good chance of it losing, which is not a good thing.
It's before the DC Circuit Court of Appeals, and there is a fairly good chance of it losing, which is not a good thing.
CFTC Finds Oil Price Manipulation
By a company called Optiver Holdings. Only it appears not to have had much of an effect:
The alleged manipulation was attempted 19 times on 11 days in March 2007, the agency said. In at least five of those 19 times, traders succeeded in driving prices higher twice and lower three times, according to the CFTC.Five out of Nineteen, about 26%...not so effective.
24 July 2008
Why the Home Inventory Situation is Worse than You Think
Care of Barry Ritholtz's The Big Picture
Now for the really scary part: Shadow Inventory. The glut of homes for sale is likely much larger than reported. Inventory counted by the Realtors group only includes foreclosures that have been listed on the multiple listings service. The enormous number of REOs, auction properties, defaults and foreclosures not listed ARE NOT IN THIS DATA.Ouch. Note that as foreclosures sore, this shadow inventory will become a larger part of the total inventory.
Obama Campaign Building Massive Ground Game
His campaign is creating a massive number of field offices.
The numbers:
Alaska and Montana???? Whiskey Tango Foxtrot???
The numbers:
| State | Barack Obama | John McCain |
| AK | 4 | 0 |
| MI | 40 | No Data |
| MO | 30 | 10 |
| MT | 6 | No Data |
| OH | 18 | 8 |
| PA | 18 | No Data |
| VA | 20 | 6 |
Alaska and Montana???? Whiskey Tango Foxtrot???
Housing 'Phants Upset Over Bush Housing Flip-Flop
I don't know about you but I'm crushed that they feel that Bush betrayed them.
This has been your daily dose of schadenfreude.
This has been your daily dose of schadenfreude.
The Problem With Pakistan
Is that the entire country resembles the German Imperial Navy circa 1913. The Kaiser's naval officers would end each meal with the toast, "Der tag," meaning "The Day," referring to the day that a final epic confrontation with the British Grand Fleet.
Well, if we look at the problems with Pakistan, whether it's misappropriation of funds intended for anti-terror operations, or the support given by the Pakistani security service, the ISI, which continues to support the Taliban in order to ensure that the influence of India in Afghanistan is minimized.
It's why Pakistan is fundamentally unreliable as an ally in the war on terror. The Pakistani military, and to a lesser extant Pakistani civilian leadership is fixated on the prospect of war with India, even though, as both are nuclear powers, anything beyond fierce border clashes is unlikely.
Well, it looks like Bush and His Evil Minions™ have decided to double down with the "War with India" dead enders who have been supporting the Taliban and preventing meaningful action against al Queida. They are proposing that $230 million in anti-terror aid, roughly 2/3 of all anti-terrorism funds, be transferred to upgrades of the Pakistani F-16 fleet.
These F-16s have no role in operations against the Taliban or against al Queida. They are purposed almost exclusively for use against India.
By releasing this money for upgrades, we are reinforcing bad behavior, and encouraging the Pakistani military to provide a safe haven to al Queida and for elements of the Pakistani security apparatus to act as the primary sponsor for the Taliban.
Well, if we look at the problems with Pakistan, whether it's misappropriation of funds intended for anti-terror operations, or the support given by the Pakistani security service, the ISI, which continues to support the Taliban in order to ensure that the influence of India in Afghanistan is minimized.
It's why Pakistan is fundamentally unreliable as an ally in the war on terror. The Pakistani military, and to a lesser extant Pakistani civilian leadership is fixated on the prospect of war with India, even though, as both are nuclear powers, anything beyond fierce border clashes is unlikely.
Well, it looks like Bush and His Evil Minions™ have decided to double down with the "War with India" dead enders who have been supporting the Taliban and preventing meaningful action against al Queida. They are proposing that $230 million in anti-terror aid, roughly 2/3 of all anti-terrorism funds, be transferred to upgrades of the Pakistani F-16 fleet.
These F-16s have no role in operations against the Taliban or against al Queida. They are purposed almost exclusively for use against India.
By releasing this money for upgrades, we are reinforcing bad behavior, and encouraging the Pakistani military to provide a safe haven to al Queida and for elements of the Pakistani security apparatus to act as the primary sponsor for the Taliban.
Iraqi President Vetoes Provincial Election Law
Jalal Talabanivetoed the legislation because it puts off a vote in Kirkuk, where the Kurds, including Talibani, want a vote to establish governance of the oil rich region.
This Iraq thing is going so damn well, huh?
This Iraq thing is going so damn well, huh?
IP Legislation Gone Insane, Chapter LVXXIII
Armin Meiwes, who killed and ate a voluntary victim Christmas in 2001, has succeeded in obtaining an injunction against the release of a horror film, because it is based on what he did.
He claimed that the film infringed on his, "Personality Rights", which in Germany is something in between privacy rights and the "right of publicity" that is used against Elvis impersonators:
He claimed that the film infringed on his, "Personality Rights", which in Germany is something in between privacy rights and the "right of publicity" that is used against Elvis impersonators:
The Court looked into the degree to which the pursuit of artistic freedom interfered with the personality rights of Meiwes. It found that artistic freedom was not so powerful a right that it allowed for someone's life to be made into a horror film.I guess it's refreshing to know that the internet doesn't have a monopoly on really sick sh#@.
Meiwes advertised online for someone to be killed and eaten by him. Bernd Jürgen Brandes responded to his advert and tried to join Meiwes in eating his own severed penis before being killed and eaten.
Meiwes was arrested and in 2004 convicted of manslaughter. Prosecutors then changed their case and asked for a retrial in 2005, questioning whether Brandes was in a fit mental state to have given his consent to the killing.
Meiwes was convicted of murder and is serving an eight and a half year jail term. Reports have emerged that in prison he has become a vegetarian.
Drug Warrior Call For War On Drugs in Afghanstan, Damn the Consequences
Thomas Schweich, the former enior counternarcotics official in the United States Embassy in Kabul, is claiming that the Afghan government is hopelessly corrupt and that Afghanistan is nearly a narco-state.
The allegations as reported are alarming, but when you read his essay on the his experiences there, it becomes far less concerning.
It's clear that this guy is a hard core drug warrior. He opposes payments in lieu of growing poppies, supports aerial spraying of defoliants, military operations for poppy eradication, etc.
This is precisely the sort of crap that pushes peasants to the Taliban, but he sees everything through the lens of "drugs bad", and ignores secondary effects, so he's now writing a tell-all.
It is this myopic view that created the disaster of prohibition, and is fostering the disastrous 'war on drugs" now.
The allegations as reported are alarming, but when you read his essay on the his experiences there, it becomes far less concerning.
It's clear that this guy is a hard core drug warrior. He opposes payments in lieu of growing poppies, supports aerial spraying of defoliants, military operations for poppy eradication, etc.
This is precisely the sort of crap that pushes peasants to the Taliban, but he sees everything through the lens of "drugs bad", and ignores secondary effects, so he's now writing a tell-all.
It is this myopic view that created the disaster of prohibition, and is fostering the disastrous 'war on drugs" now.
Cuba Playing Russian Bomber Rumor Close to the Vest
Fidel Castro wrote an online column saying that, "Raul did very well keeping a dignified silence."
Both Russia and Cuba have everything to gain from ambiguity, and so I think that they will continue to be ambiguous.
That's part of Teddy Roosevelt's idea behind the hole "talk softly" foreign relations.
I would note that the rumor is not about a permanent base, just a refueling base, but that would still give NORAD fits.
Both Russia and Cuba have everything to gain from ambiguity, and so I think that they will continue to be ambiguous.
That's part of Teddy Roosevelt's idea behind the hole "talk softly" foreign relations.
I would note that the rumor is not about a permanent base, just a refueling base, but that would still give NORAD fits.
Obama Makes $5 Million Buy of Olympic Ads
Good move, I don't watch the Olympics, so if someone could send me a link to whatever ads he puts up, I'd appreciate it.
I think that some ads linking McCain to, "more of the same", would be good, but that's out of my pay grade.
I think that some ads linking McCain to, "more of the same", would be good, but that's out of my pay grade.
Economics Update
While the Federal Reserve is afraid to say the word, it appears from their latest report that we are seeing stagflation.
Jobless benefit claims just spiked above 400,000, up 34,000 from last week to 406,000, the highest reading since March.
Again, let me note that the weekly numbers have a lot of noise, but this news still sucks.
What's more we have increasing evidence that the downturn is not "decoupled", but is effecting other economies, with consumer and corporate confidence in Europe coming in well below expectations.
Not surprisingly, the bad news out of Europe, which points to interest rate moderation there, has bolstered the dollar.
Some real estate numbers came out today, and they are not good.
home sales fell 2.6% from may, and are now at an annual rate of 4.93 million/year, the lowest rate since 1998.
If you are wondering what might happen when mortgage rates rise, you should break out the popcorn, because it looks like that show might be starting soon. Rates went up 0.37% last week to 6.63% for a 30 year fixed mortgage.
Because of all this, I am not surprised thatthe number of vacant homes has remained at more than 2.2 million.
Energy was flippity floppity today, with oil up by about a dollar, and retail gasoline prices down again.
Jobless benefit claims just spiked above 400,000, up 34,000 from last week to 406,000, the highest reading since March.
Again, let me note that the weekly numbers have a lot of noise, but this news still sucks.
What's more we have increasing evidence that the downturn is not "decoupled", but is effecting other economies, with consumer and corporate confidence in Europe coming in well below expectations.
Not surprisingly, the bad news out of Europe, which points to interest rate moderation there, has bolstered the dollar.
Some real estate numbers came out today, and they are not good.
home sales fell 2.6% from may, and are now at an annual rate of 4.93 million/year, the lowest rate since 1998.
If you are wondering what might happen when mortgage rates rise, you should break out the popcorn, because it looks like that show might be starting soon. Rates went up 0.37% last week to 6.63% for a 30 year fixed mortgage.
Because of all this, I am not surprised thatthe number of vacant homes has remained at more than 2.2 million.
Energy was flippity floppity today, with oil up by about a dollar, and retail gasoline prices down again.
Why John Sidney McCain Didn't Talk to the Exorcist
I mentioned that the sick old man was going to Louisiana to talk with Bobby "The Exorcist" Jindal, and the scuttlebutt was that he was sizing him up as a VP running mate.
Well, he also intended to fly to an oil rig, to talk about the safety of oil rigs, and to falsely state that there was not a single oil spill post Katrina:
Dennis Knizley looks out on an oil rig beached just off of Dauphin Island, Ala., Tuesday afternoon, Aug. 30, 2005, a day after Hurricane Katrina destroyed much of the island and brought the enormous structure a few hundred yards from shore. (AP Photo/Birmingham Post-Herald, Jan-Michael Stump)
In fact, there were somewhere between 146 and 595 oil spills, depending on whose numbers you use, that spewed 9 million gallons of oil.
In any case, the McCain campaign canceled the flight to the oil rig, claiming that the "weather" was to blame, though the weather was actually pretty good, it further south, on the Tex-Mex border where Dolly was hitting.
More likely what stopped him from giving the speech was the fact that there was a barge accident on the Mississippi that day, which spilled 419,000 gallons of oil, and it would have made the campaign stop look like a clown show.
Come to think of it, the entire campaign is starting to look like a clown show, and I'm beginning to wonder if God hates the John McCain campaign.
Well, he also intended to fly to an oil rig, to talk about the safety of oil rigs, and to falsely state that there was not a single oil spill post Katrina:
Dennis Knizley looks out on an oil rig beached just off of Dauphin Island, Ala., Tuesday afternoon, Aug. 30, 2005, a day after Hurricane Katrina destroyed much of the island and brought the enormous structure a few hundred yards from shore. (AP Photo/Birmingham Post-Herald, Jan-Michael Stump)
In fact, there were somewhere between 146 and 595 oil spills, depending on whose numbers you use, that spewed 9 million gallons of oil.
In any case, the McCain campaign canceled the flight to the oil rig, claiming that the "weather" was to blame, though the weather was actually pretty good, it further south, on the Tex-Mex border where Dolly was hitting.
More likely what stopped him from giving the speech was the fact that there was a barge accident on the Mississippi that day, which spilled 419,000 gallons of oil, and it would have made the campaign stop look like a clown show.
Come to think of it, the entire campaign is starting to look like a clown show, and I'm beginning to wonder if God hates the John McCain campaign.
Novak's Hit and Run Victim Still in Hospital
It appears that the victim, 86 year old Don Clifford Liljenquist, is in worse shape than previously reported, and is still in the hospital, though this may be complicated by his age and history of homelessness.
All Novak has gotten out of this is a $50 fine.
Considering the reports of witnesses, there should be further investigation...but there won't be, because Bob Novak is above the law.
The Plame-Wlsons have issued a statement which bears repeating:
All Novak has gotten out of this is a $50 fine.
Considering the reports of witnesses, there should be further investigation...but there won't be, because Bob Novak is above the law.
The Plame-Wlsons have issued a statement which bears repeating:
Our sympathies go out to the victim of Novak’s action. Once again Novak has demonstrated his callous disregard for the rights of others, as well as his chronic inability to accept responsibility for his actions.Indeed.
We have long argued that responsible adults should take Novak’s typewriter away. The time has arrived for them to also take away the keys to his Corvette.
More Media in the Tank for John Sidney McCain III
Well, in the aftermath of CBS's selective editing, we have Howie Kurtz, "Mr. Conflict of Interest", alibiing for CBS deliberately mis-editing the interview.
Seriously, someone is in the tank for McCain...Hell, everyone in the media has this "man crush" for McCain, which is why this is not wall to wall 24/7 news right now, because they "know" McCain, and they "know" it's not fair to hold him to his word.
Seriously, someone is in the tank for McCain...Hell, everyone in the media has this "man crush" for McCain, which is why this is not wall to wall 24/7 news right now, because they "know" McCain, and they "know" it's not fair to hold him to his word.
Fannie Mae Has $5 Billion Overhang in Unsold Foreclosures
And the number is getting bigger, because they are picking up homes twice as fast as they are selling them.
On a related note, it appears that you can pick up a 3br in Flint, MI for $5,000 (the number of zeros are correct)...That's a depressed community.
On a related note, it appears that you can pick up a 3br in Flint, MI for $5,000 (the number of zeros are correct)...That's a depressed community.
And the GM Dead Pool Continues
Toyota sold more cars than GM sales in first half of the year, and it looks as if it will outsell GM for 2008, which would be the first time in 76 years that GM was not number 1 worldwide.
Allegations of Bribery In Indian Nuke Vote
Details here, here, and here.
The last link gets into the opposition of Kumari Mayawati to the measure. She is the defacto national representative of India's Dalit (untouchable) population, and based on what I've read about her indicates that she is a very skilled politician, and so probably she's setting herself up for a larger role in the next government.
One thing that I am sure of though is that it won't make it through this session of the US Congress, because the Hyde Act requires that Congress be in session continuously for 30 days before a vote is held, and that will not happen in late July of an election year.
The last link gets into the opposition of Kumari Mayawati to the measure. She is the defacto national representative of India's Dalit (untouchable) population, and based on what I've read about her indicates that she is a very skilled politician, and so probably she's setting herself up for a larger role in the next government.
One thing that I am sure of though is that it won't make it through this session of the US Congress, because the Hyde Act requires that Congress be in session continuously for 30 days before a vote is held, and that will not happen in late July of an election year.
23 July 2008
Novak Does to Pedestrian What He Does to the Truth
He ran down a pedestrian, and then tried to leave the scene of the accident, prompting a bicyclist to pull in front of his car to stop him.
Unfortunately, the man who gleefully leaked the name of one of the CIA's chief covert operatives on WMDs is unlikely to get any jail time. He was only cited for "failure to yield."
Unfortunately, the man who gleefully leaked the name of one of the CIA's chief covert operatives on WMDs is unlikely to get any jail time. He was only cited for "failure to yield."
Barack Obama: Fire Cass Sunstein
BTD at Talkleft has the goods:
It appears that Sunstein has suggested that only the "Egregious Crimes" of Bush and His Evil Minions™ be pursued under an Obama administration.
While both BTD and I agree that the standard of Jonathan Turley on Olbermann, that all crimes by the executive are "egregious", is excessive (Turley supported impeachment over "Monicagate").
I would further argue that pursuing all the "high crimes and misdemeanors" of the Bush administration would not be possible, as there are simply too few lawyers in Washington, DC to do this.
That being said, there are certain crimes that must be pursued, because otherwise it subverts the rule of law, which is already quite weak inside the Beltway.
What sort of crimes? Things like illegal wiretapping, WHICH CASS SUNSTEIN SUPPORTED, and the military kangaroo courts of Gitmo detainees, WHICH CASS SUNSTEIN SUPPORTED (See here and here).
He justifies them by supporting the proposition that we elect a king with unlimited power every 4 years.
This should be reason enough to remove him completely from the campaign, and from any position in your future administration.
It appears that Sunstein has suggested that only the "Egregious Crimes" of Bush and His Evil Minions™ be pursued under an Obama administration.
While both BTD and I agree that the standard of Jonathan Turley on Olbermann, that all crimes by the executive are "egregious", is excessive (Turley supported impeachment over "Monicagate").
I would further argue that pursuing all the "high crimes and misdemeanors" of the Bush administration would not be possible, as there are simply too few lawyers in Washington, DC to do this.
That being said, there are certain crimes that must be pursued, because otherwise it subverts the rule of law, which is already quite weak inside the Beltway.
What sort of crimes? Things like illegal wiretapping, WHICH CASS SUNSTEIN SUPPORTED, and the military kangaroo courts of Gitmo detainees, WHICH CASS SUNSTEIN SUPPORTED (See here and here).
He justifies them by supporting the proposition that we elect a king with unlimited power every 4 years.
This should be reason enough to remove him completely from the campaign, and from any position in your future administration.
Economics Update
Fairly slow news day: retail gasoline down, oil down, and dollar up.
In what has to be the most obvious bit of analysis this week, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHE)) is saying that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may record more losses as a result of the moribund real estate market....Seriously, this could have come out of a fortune cookie, particularly since we are seeing more indicators that the housing market has not hit bottom:
Mortgage applications fell 6.2% last week, (again, note that this is a noisy number), and California foreclosures hit a 20 year high in the 2nd quarter....actually the most ever, since they didn't start collecting the numbers until 1988.
In what has to be the most obvious bit of analysis this week, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHE)) is saying that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may record more losses as a result of the moribund real estate market....Seriously, this could have come out of a fortune cookie, particularly since we are seeing more indicators that the housing market has not hit bottom:
Mortgage applications fell 6.2% last week, (again, note that this is a noisy number), and California foreclosures hit a 20 year high in the 2nd quarter....actually the most ever, since they didn't start collecting the numbers until 1988.
It Appears that Some People Want to Relive the 1960s
Specifically, the Cuban Missile Crisis.
There are now rumors that Russia may start basing nuclear capable bombers in Cuba in response to the US installing an ABM system in Europe directed at them (let's be honest, if it were actually aimed at the Iranians, as claimed, it would be further south, to give coverage to Turkey and Italy).
General Norton Schwartz, the nominee for Air Force chief of staff, said, "I think we should stand strong and indicate that that is something that crosses a threshold, crosses a red line, for the United States of America."
I agree....as does the expansion of NATO eastward, and a the European missile defense system crosses a red line for the Russians.
Russian political culture is not driven by a need to engage in the world. Russian political culture is driven by a paranoia about the world, and we seem to be taking steps guaranteed to stoke their paranoia.
It's almost as if someone wanted to recreate the Cold War for political gain.
There are now rumors that Russia may start basing nuclear capable bombers in Cuba in response to the US installing an ABM system in Europe directed at them (let's be honest, if it were actually aimed at the Iranians, as claimed, it would be further south, to give coverage to Turkey and Italy).
General Norton Schwartz, the nominee for Air Force chief of staff, said, "I think we should stand strong and indicate that that is something that crosses a threshold, crosses a red line, for the United States of America."
I agree....as does the expansion of NATO eastward, and a the European missile defense system crosses a red line for the Russians.
Russian political culture is not driven by a need to engage in the world. Russian political culture is driven by a paranoia about the world, and we seem to be taking steps guaranteed to stoke their paranoia.
It's almost as if someone wanted to recreate the Cold War for political gain.
3rd U.S. Circurt Court of Appeals Strikes Down COPA
They found the law uvague and an infringement on the first amendment and so declared the Child Online Protection Act unconstitutional:
"It is apparent that COPA, like the Communications Decency Act before it, 'effectively suppresses a large amount of speech that adults have a constitutional right to receive and to address to one another,' Reno, 521 U.S. at 874, 117 S.Ct. at 2346, and thus is overbroad. For this reason, COPA violates the First Amendment," the judges wrote. "These burdens would chill protected speech."I expect an appeal, but the fact is that the mechanisms are more restrictive, and less effective than filters, and as such appear to be unconstitutional, though IANAL.
McCain's Meets With Jindal
So it appears that John Sidney McCain III is spending some time in Louisiana, but besides mentions of a visit with governor Bobby Jindal, nothing else is specified.
Maybe they want the performing whack job, he has claimed to have performed an exorcism, to be VP. It certainly would be entertaining.
Of other note, it article indicates that Bob Novak got owned on the leak that McCain would announce a VP pick this week:
Maybe they want the performing whack job, he has claimed to have performed an exorcism, to be VP. It certainly would be entertaining.
Of other note, it article indicates that Bob Novak got owned on the leak that McCain would announce a VP pick this week:
Robert Novak, the columnist who helped trigger the VP frenzy with a blog posting Monday, told Fox News on Tuesday that he might have been duped by a McCain campaign aide.Gee....You think????
Novak said he was encouraged by "a very senior McCain aide" to put out the story that McCain would name his running mate this week. He said he since has been told by "certain people" he "may have been used."
No, Wall Street is Choking on a Pretzel
It appears that at one of Bush's closed fundraisers, someone had a home video camera, and caught him saying that, "Wall Street 'got drunk' and now has a hangover."
I guess you talk about what you know.
I guess you talk about what you know.
McCain Spends in 11 States, Sees Results in 1
He dropped $16 million in on Michigan, Colorado, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, New Mexico, Nevada, Wisconsin, and West Virginia, and only saw results in Nevada.
Obama spent about 1/3 of this.
McCain lost ground in all but Iowa and Colorado, where he stayed steady, and he picked up in Nevada, and there are no polls for West Virginia.
heh
Obama spent about 1/3 of this.
McCain lost ground in all but Iowa and Colorado, where he stayed steady, and he picked up in Nevada, and there are no polls for West Virginia.
heh
Records Unsealed in Rosenberg Case
I think that it's clear that Julius was a spy, though his role in nuclear espionage is not certain, but Ethel has always been a question. In any case, this relase of data should keep a number of historians busy for the next few years.
Lame Duck Rush By Bush and His Evil Minions™ to Increase Exposure to Workplace Toxins
No, this is not satire. "Political appointees at the Department of Labor are moving with unusual speed to push through in the final months of the Bush administration a rule making it tougher to regulate workers' on-the-job exposure to chemicals and toxins."
They are doing their level best to do it in secret.
Only 180 days to go.....
They are doing their level best to do it in secret.
Only 180 days to go.....
What Member of Rodentia Scrambles to Leave a Sinking Ship?
Ah....Yes...Republicans.....
Senate Republican leaders are now allowing senators to vote as they wish in an attempt to keep seat losses to a minimum in November.
We also have reports that Republicans see Bush as a "jinx", and that they are trying to avoid the party brand.
No wonder they aren't letting press into Bush fund raisers. They are afraid of pictures of the candidate and Bush together showing up in the press.
Maybe Republicans should campaign with a more popular member of the Bush administration, like Dick Cheney....I think that I just threw up in my mouth.
Senate Republican leaders are now allowing senators to vote as they wish in an attempt to keep seat losses to a minimum in November.
We also have reports that Republicans see Bush as a "jinx", and that they are trying to avoid the party brand.
No wonder they aren't letting press into Bush fund raisers. They are afraid of pictures of the candidate and Bush together showing up in the press.
Maybe Republicans should campaign with a more popular member of the Bush administration, like Dick Cheney....I think that I just threw up in my mouth.
Zimbabwe Talks to Begin Tomorrow
According to Zimbabaw's state run newspaper, The Herald, reconciliation talks are to start tomorrow.
It's not a bad sign, but I don't expect to see progress while Mbeki is the chief mediator.
A slightly more positive note, the EU is pressing ahead with more sanctions.
It's not a bad sign, but I don't expect to see progress while Mbeki is the chief mediator.
A slightly more positive note, the EU is pressing ahead with more sanctions.
So Now We Have the First Murder by Taser
Former Police Officer Scott Nugent tasered Baron "Scooter" Pikes NINE TIMES after he WAS ALREADY HANDCUFFED, and may face criminal charges, though I doubt it: It's Winnfield, Louisiana, only 45 miles from Jena, and the victim was black:
Taser, International is claiming that they couldn't have caused his death....Yeah, sure....whatever.
Nothing to see here....It's just a n*****...move along.
Williams, who ruled Pikes' death a homicide in June after extensive study, said Nugent fired his Taser at Pikes six times in less than three minutes -- shots recorded by a computer chip in the weapon's handle. Then officers put Pikes in the back of a cruiser and drove him to their police station -- where Nugent fired a seventh shot, directly against Pikes' chest.(emphasis mine)
"After he was given that drive stun to the chest, he was pulled out of the car onto the concrete, " Williams told CNN. "He was electroshocked two more times, which two officers noted that he had no neuromuscular response to those last two 50,000-volt electroshocks."
Williams said he had two nationally known forensic pathologists, including former New York city medical examiner Michael Baden, review the case before issuing his conclusions. He said it's possible Nugent was shocking a dead man the last two times he pulled the trigger.
"This fellow was talking in the back seat of the car prior to shot number seven," he said. "From that point on, it becomes questionable [if Pikes was still alive]."
Curry said Pikes told officers he suffered from asthma and had been using PCP and crack cocaine. But Williams said he found no sign of drug use in the autopsy, and no record of asthma in Pikes' medical history.
In the year since Winnfield police received Tasers, officers have used them 14 times, according to police records -- with 12 of the instances involving black suspects. Ten of the 14 incidents involved Nugent, who has no public disciplinary record.
Taser, International is claiming that they couldn't have caused his death....Yeah, sure....whatever.
Nothing to see here....It's just a n*****...move along.
Unfortunate Imagery
I'm not sure if this looks like something from the days of Stalin, but this McCain campaign poster just gives me the creeps:
22 July 2008
The Sick Old Man Can't Even Get the Facts Right on His Signature Issue
John Sidney McCain III barely graduated from Annapolis, 894 of 899, and then only because because daddy was a high ranking admiral.
Now, he gets the escalation in Iraq wrong, claiming that the so-called "Anbar Awakening" was the result of the "surge" even though it pre-dated Bush's first mention of escalation in Iraq by 6 months.
Of course, this is Katie Couric's C
Now, he gets the escalation in Iraq wrong, claiming that the so-called "Anbar Awakening" was the result of the "surge" even though it pre-dated Bush's first mention of escalation in Iraq by 6 months.
Of course, this is Katie Couric's C