07 August 2026

First Friday

So, we have the July jobs report, and notwithstanding a stable unemployment rate,  with non-farm payrolls fell by 23.000, while the numbers for May and June were revised down by  66,000 and and 17,000 respectively.

So job numbers are falling, but the unemployment rate has remained steady because people have given up on looking for work.

US employers unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July and gains for the previous two months were revised down sharply by a combined 103,000 jobs, painting a weaker picture of the labor market than past data indicated.

The unemployment rate, however, held steady at 4.1%. Economists had projected an unchanged unemployment rate and 83,000 new jobs for the month.

The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics illustrates the continued summer slump in job growth amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Pressure has been mounting within the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to combat persistently high inflation, but July’s job report and its latest revisions may cool those expectations at the central bank’s next meeting.

July’s job losses were concentrated in local government education, with 50,000 jobs lost, and retail, which lost 19,000. The private sector, however, gained 30,000 jobs, with growth focused once again in healthcare.

Hourly earnings of all employees changed little over the past year, increasing by 3.2% compared to last year. Next week’s consumer pricing data will reveal whether these gains have kept pace with inflation.

Figures for May were revised to 63,000 jobs added, down from an initially reported 129,000 jobs, while figures for June dropped 37,000, to 20,000 jobs added. In total, job figures for May and June were revised down 103,000 jobs.

In June, the US added 57,000 jobs, about half of what economists had predicted, with most of the growth concentrated in healthcare and social assistance. The unemployment rate had also dropped to 4.2% in June, down from 4.3% in May, driven by 720,000 people leaving the workforce.

Even more concerning, to me at least is the fact that worker wages have fallen to an all time low as a percentage of GDP, meaning that any gains are not seen by the ordinary American.

U.S. workers again saw their slice of the U.S. economy slide to a record ‌low in the second quarter amid an ongoing ‌productivity boom that is producing output gains which are outpacing wage growth, ​the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday.

The so-called labor share of nominal gross domestic product, which BLS defines as the percentage of output that accrues to workers in the ‌form of compensation, fell ⁠to 52.9% in the second quarter from 53.7% in the first quarter.

That was the lowest ⁠since the series began in 1947, BLS said as it reported stronger-than-expected growth in second-quarter productivity.

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