The numbers are quite good, 172K new jobs in the non-farm payroll and was unemployment unchanged at 4.3%.
What is notable is where the job growth occurred, largely leisure and hospitality and local and state government employment.
The former is driven by the World Cup being in the United States, though it increasingly looks like this will be a bit of a bust, because foreigners do not want to be subject to the tender mercies of Customs and Border Patrol or ICE.
I'm not sure were the local government pickup is coming from, though a part of it could be from former federal civil servants finding new jobs.
These numbers make a rate hike by the Federal Reserve almost certain.
I think that the analysis from the CEPR is a good summary:
- Jobs are growing far faster than the breakeven rate
- Wages are not keeping pace with inflation
- Workers are still reluctant to leave jobs
- Job-killing AI is not visible in the data
- Self-employment is lagging
The last one is not at all surprising. When the social safety net is reduced, striking out on one's own as an entrepreneur becomes far more risky.
Of course, all of the above is predicated on accepting that the numbers are real, so YMMV.
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