18 June 2026

It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

We have the new weekly unemployment numbers out, and initial claims are down marginally, continuing claims are up marginally, and tepid hiring.

For me, the most important part of the unemployment statistics is that I am no longer a part of them.  I finished my first full week at my new job. (it's a 9/80 schedule, and tomorrow is the off Friday)

The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, but remained at slightly higher levels, suggesting some moderation in the pace of job growth in June.

 Economists largely shrugged off the report from the Labor Department ​on Thursday, with some pointing out that the recent elevation in claims was likely due to seasonal distortions related to the end of the school year. They viewed the labor market ‌as remaining stable enough for the Federal Reserve to focus on stamping out inflation, stoked by the Iran war.

The U.S. central bank on Wednesday kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range, but updated quarterly projections showed policymakers expected to raise borrowing costs this year amid growing concerns about inflation.

………

Initial claims ​for state unemployment benefits dropped 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 226,000 for the week ended June 13, the Labor Department said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast ⁠225,000 claims for the latest week. Claims had increased for three straight weeks, pushing to the upper end of their 190,000-230,000 range for this year.

………

Though the survey's measure of factory jobs swung to positive territory this month, "most firms continued to report no changes in employment overall." The lack of hiring was evident in the weekly claims report. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, ⁠a proxy for ​hiring, increased 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.81 million during the week ended June 6, the claims report showed. 

Damned if I know what the f%$# is going on here.

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