It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

So, initial claims fell, continuing claims rose, and PCE inflation hit a 3 year high.

Notwithstanding the increasingly precarious deal between Iran and the United States to end hostilities, ships are still only trickling through the Strait of Hormuz.

The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, consistent with labor market resilience.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits ​dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 for the week ended June ‌20, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week.

The data included last Friday's Juneteenth public holiday, which could have contributed to ​part of the larger-than-expected decline. Claims are typically more complicated from the ​end of May through June when the school year ends, as ⁠some states allow non-teaching staff to file for unemployment benefits during the long ​school holidays. Seasonal factors, the model used by the government to strip out ​seasonal fluctuations from the data, do not always capture these moves.

………

The number of people receiving unemployment benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.821 million during the week ended June 13, the claims ​report showed. The so-called ​continuing claims data ⁠covered the period during which the government surveyed households for June's unemployment rate.

Meanwhile in inflation land:

US consumer spending accelerated in May even as prices rose at the fastest pace in more than three years, suggesting Americans are powering through the fallout from the Iran war.

The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 4.1% from a year earlier, the most since April 2023, Bureau of Economic Analysis data out Thursday showed. Excluding food and energy, prices were up 3.4% from a year earlier.

Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose 0.3% last month after stalling in April.