20 November 2008

Hank Paulson, Go Cheney Yourself

So now Secretary of the Treasury Hank Paulson is warning that the financial meltdown might create too restrictive a regulatory environment for financial companies:
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called the financial crisis now plaguing the world economy a "once or twice" in a 100 years event, even as he warned Thursday against imposing too-strict regulations to prevent a repeat calamity.
The translation for this is, "I made my money because the SEC and the CFTC were muzzled, so I could use deception and extortion to get money out of the average working Joe's pocket, and this should not change, because I have relatives."

Paulson is an idiot. While the financial crisis we're having right now mirrors the stock market crash in 1928, almost 80 years ago, the fact is that these fiscal implosions have gotten more common as we have backed off regulation, and before 19289, they happened every decade or so.

The reason that nothing has happened in the past 80 years is because of the regulations you dispise, and the reason that it is happening now is because of the slow deregulatory movements from about 1975-2001, and the rush to deregulate since then.

Bush at G20: No One Makes Any Friendly Contact

He's the 5th grade bully who did not grow an inch over the Summer, and has entered 6th grade, and is no longer big enough to enjoy fear.

Everyone else is shaking hands, but they keep their hands away from him.

Election Update

Well, the current count from the Strib has the margin down to 142, with Coleman having 1,211,419 votes, and Franken havings 1,211,277.

A noteworthy development is that Franken's campaign got a judge to order that Ramsey County turn over the names of the absentee ballots that it rejected, because they believe that some of them had been improperly rejected.

More Obama Appointments

Janet Napolitano as head of DHS. Which means, I guess that she won't be challenging McCain in his run for reelection to the Senate in 2 years, which is a bummer, she could beat him, and it means that the Dems won't have a check on districting in Arizona.

Also there is a report that Penny Pritzker was offered the position of Commerce Secrretary, but that she turned it down for "business considerations."

By "business considerations", I think that they mean that her role in the Superior Bank of Chicago, which pretty much created the subprime lending model, and then failed in 2001.

My guess is that they (correctly) figured that this would engender a destructive media circus.

Waxman Ousts Dingell as Head of House House Energy and Commerce Committee

Waxman won the vote 137-122.

This is a good thing for Congress and the nation. Dingell has been doing exactly what the Big 3 (Big 2½) wanted for 50 years, which is why they are in such a mess.

He was such a lapdog that he never did what they needed, just what they wanted.

Waxman is much better pretty much all the issues.

Bush Caves On Unemployment Extension

He's been fighting this for months, but now he'll sign it, because he's afraid of an override.

Not Enough Bullets: Conrad Black Edition

Yes, everyone's favorite self dealing corrupt former media magnate is seeking a pardon from George W. Bush.

He's only been in stir since March 3.....I say send him to Terre Haute.

Because they Have Lost the People Who Worship Power

If you thought that the Republican Party's poll numbers could not go any lower, you would be wrong, they can, and they have.

Favorable/Unfavorable has gone from 40/53 to 34/61.

The real change is that a month ago, Obama had not won the election, so people who cling to power were still with them.

There are always people who want to hang with the winning team, not matter how repugnant, and those rats have boarded the lifeboats.

Economics Update

Well, the obvious lede is the unemployment numbers, with the weekly new unemployment claims, which are a very noisy metric, and continuing claims, which are not, beinb positively ghastly.

Weekly numbers rose to 542,000, whichn is the highest since mid 1992, and well above the estimate of 502,000 and continuing unemployment claims hit 4,012,000, up 109,000, the highest level since 1982.

Therefore, it is no surprise that the index of leading economic indicators fell in October, as die the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's business activity index, to an 18 year low, and the Architecture Billings Index, an indicator of future construction activity, fell to an all time low.

Meanwhile in the bond market, so many people are fleeing to US treasuries that rates have been driven to historic, and near historic lows, while the costs of insuring private bonds has returned to the stratosphere.

For what it's worth, we have some good news for a bond insurer, specifically Ambac, which has managed to negotiate a cancellation of $3.5 billion in insurance contracts, which is obviously a serious reduction in liabilities.

In energy, oil briefly fell under $50/bbl, and retail gasoline prices seem to be heading below $2/gallon.

In currency, the dollar is mixed.

Not Enough Bullets

This time, it's longtime CEO and founder of South Financial Group, who moved up his retirement date to preserve an $18 million dollar severance:
Meanwhile, corporate governance analyst Hodgson said that Whittle's deal -- nominally a retirement, but treated as a severance -- is all too typical of golden parachutes: "If you and I decided to retire, we might get what's left of our 401(k). But for some reason the rules seem to be different for executives. They get severance even though they're retiring. There's no logic to it at all."
These guys need to be tattooed with verses insulting Mohammad, and parachuted into a Taliban camp.

Court of Appeals Invalidated Business Process Patents

The decision reversing the 1998 case which allowed things like risk hedging strategies, the "U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit, in Washington, voted 9-3 that patents should be limited to 'physical objects or substances' and not be awarded to 'abstractions' like a bank's risk-hedging strategy."

Thiw will doubtless go to the Supreme Court, but this is fundamentally a good decision:

In its 132-page decision, the court said a patent can cover a "process that transforms a particular article to a specified different state or thing by applying a fundamental principle" but cannot cover the principle itself.
This is, I think, a response to the fact that the Supreme Court consistently reversing the court, and an understanding that they can no longer subscribe to the theory that everything should be patentable.

Minnesota Recount Update

The Strib has real time numbers here.

So far, Franken has gained 41 votes relative to Coleman, though both have lost total votes, with 279 votes being challenged by one side or the other, and 18% of the votes counted.

It will likely come down to the challenges, and it will be very close.

First Step to Fixing the Big 3 (Big 2½)

Fire upper management, and imprison them, because anyone who flies to a Congressional hearing on private jets at a cost of tens of thousands of dollars in order to plead poverty and beg for money is criminally stupid.

19 November 2008

Stevens Concedes Race to Begich

Welcome to the Senate Mark Begich.

And Round One of Waxman - Dingell Is Called for Waxman

As you may be aware, Henry Waxman is challenging John Dingell for chairmanship of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, and today, the Democratic Steering Committee went 25 to 22 for Waxman.

I think that there are a number of things that may trump Dingell's seniority (He's the longest serving Dem in Congress).
  • He has been awful on global warming, because he's the Big 3 (2½) auto makers' bitch.
  • The recognition that one of the reasons that the Big 3 (2½) auto makers are in such bad shape is that the Congress never took steps to move beyond the 1970s CAFE regulation, because Dingell is Big 3 (2½) auto makers' bitch.
  • There is also, I think, a desire for a bit of a shakeup, to better reflect what is now a relatively young Democratic caucus in Congress.
  • The vote was a secret ballot, so there is little chance for retribution.
  • Waxman's ability to count votes is legendary, and the mere fact that he is challenging Dingell makes people wonder if he already has this sewn up. If so, they do not want to be on the losing side.
Me, I'm rooting for Waxman.

Boehner Wins Reelection as Minority Leader

Considering his performance this cycle, my conclusion is that he must have video of congresscritters having carnal knowledge with a goat.

Too Much Schoolhouse Rock in the 1970s

A very shallow explanation of bonds, done in the style of Schoolhouse Rock.

Election Updates

They finally finished the count, and McCain won Missouri.

Also, Ted Stevens concedes in the Alaska Senate race.

So now it's down to the runoff in Georgia, and the recount in Michigan.

Headliner You Don't Expect

Indian Navy Destroys Pirate Ship.

I find it odd on so many levels.

BTW, the proximate cause of the piracy is that because there is no government in Somalia, fishing fleets from various nations have strip mined the waters off the coast, leaving fisherman with no other means of support.

Krugman Pwn35* Amity Shlaes

Though I would have to say that Pwn463† of Ms. Shlaes is like shooting fish in a barrel:
When you hear claims that the New Deal made the depression worse, they often come directly or indirectly from the work of Amity Shlaes, whose misleading statistics have been widely disseminated on the right.

...
Krugman then goes to show that Shlaes is suggesting that actions based on Keynes theories failed to contain unemployment in the 1960s.

Yes, I was unaware of the historically high unemployment rates in the 1960s too.

Just go read... A few hundred words, and he destroys her.

*Owns.
†Ownage.

Henry Cohen of Production Radio Rentals, This One is For You

I've posted occasionally on the FCC's rules process on white space, space between channels that is currently unused, or more accurately unallocated.

A number of people, including me, feel that if this bandwidth should be made available to unlicensed users, much in the same way that Wi-Fi is, because it promises better bandwidth, greater penetration, and better range.

The complicating factor is that it has been used, largely almost completely illegally by the wireless microphone industry.

As a result, I've attracted the attention of the above mentioned gentleman, who deals in said microphones, and we had a bit of discussion on the matter.

He mentioned that, "There are no handheld military RF communication devices that do what he [Telco Expert Harold Feld, who is a friend] claims." (emphasis mine)

By what he claims, he means using "sense and avoid" to avoid interfering with other devices sharing the spectrum.

I find his argument complete bullsh^%, because I have personal knowledge of vehicle mounted communications systems in various stages of test and deployment, JTRS comes to mind because I had to package components when I worked a military contract, but he was insisting on "hand held."

Well, Mr. Cohen, I have your handheld right here. It's not just a handheld, they've got the system on a chip:
Researchers here are developing new, handheld, wireless radios fitted with a single processor chip that is embedded with algorithms for compressing as many as 5 simultaneous, stealthy conversations into the same time and frequency slot and then, on arrival, untangling them.

Equally importantly, while in transit messages and data packages are seemingly hopelessly mixed – to the point of sounding like static. The chance of intercepting even the digital gibberish is unlikely since foes or potential adversaries don’t have the receiver technology to sort through such high levels of interferences.

....

They also are working to discover what’s necessary and what’s not, allowing them to take computing short cuts and use new techniques to increase performance and efficiency. Such advances in signal processing have allowed researchers to reduce the amount of “overhead” or needless digital instruction in the protocol that is not voice traffic. “Protocol overhead” as part of the total message has decreased to 20% from 50%. That is a key strategy for freeing room for more transmissions. Phase three is to conclude in June with demonstration of up to a 20-radio network. By the end of 2010, researchers expect to have completed design and implementation of a full-waveform protocol and hardware for a brick-size radio.
It's from the minds of DARPA, and it's here, it's real, and it's on a chip, and here is a video: (4:24)

Not Enough Bullets, Even if It's Just AIG to Deal With

Yep, an additional $3 million to fired executives at the failed insurance giant.

The they will give the Sirius Cybernetics Corp marketing division a run for their money in the, "first up against the wall when the revolution comes," sweepstakes.

Obama’s Staff Picks Today

Tom Daschle as Health and Human Services Secretary.

Also, at the non cabinet level:
  • David Axelrod, Senior Advisor to the President
  • Lisa Brown, Staff Secretary
  • Greg Craig, White House Counsel
  • Chris Lu, Cabinet Secretary

1000 Words on the Big 2½

Economics Update

Well, it looks like the deflationary trap may be here, with the CPI down 1% last month, and core CPI falling 0.1%, the first drop since 1982.

The fact that housing starts and requests for building permits are falling off reinforces the idea that we are heading towards a major downturn.

Of course, it's not just residential real estate. We are now seeing that mortgage backed securities for commercial properties are seeing increasing insurance costs and delinquencies.

In the larger world of the credit crunch, Calculated Risk's Credit Crisis Indicators are largely unchanged.

BTW, S&P has downgraded monoliner bond insurer Ambac again.

In energy, oil fell again, on high inventory reports.

In currency, the dollar fell in response to continued news of a recession.

Let's see...Anything else??? Oh...Yeah, the Dow closed below 8,000 for the first time in 5 years, 7,997.28.

Circular Firing Squat*

Gee, following a crushing electoral defeat, conservative windbag Kathleen Parker goes and blames it all on the what she sees as right wing medieval religious types:
As Republicans sort out the reasons for their defeat, they likely will overlook or dismiss the gorilla in the pulpit.

....

To be more specific, the evangelical, right-wing, oogedy-boogedy branch of the GOP is what ails the erstwhile conservative party and will continue to afflict and marginalize its constituents if reckoning doesn't soon cometh.

Simply put: Armband religion is killing the Republican Party. And, the truth -- as long as we're setting ourselves free -- is that if one were to eavesdrop on private conversations among the party intelligentsia, one would hear precisely that.


....

So it has been for the Grand Old Party since the 1980s or so, as it has become increasingly beholden to an element that used to be relegated to wooden crates on street corners.
Ouch!!! Reading further it appears that her problem with the Religious right is that it is insular, nativist, and so is hostile and frightening to the majority of the population who are not a part of this. Well put

However, honesty forces me to note that her argument would be far more convincing if she hadn't endorsed the idea of fear and hatred of those who don't look like us using a right wing evangelical just this May:
"A full-blooded American."

That's how 24-year-old Josh Fry of West Virginia described his preference for John McCain over Barack Obama. His feelings aren't racist, he explained. He would just be more comfortable with "someone who is a full-blooded American as president."

...

Full-bloodedness is an old coin that's gaining currency in the new American realm. Meaning: Politics may no longer be so much about race and gender as about heritage, core values, and made-in-America. Just as we once and still have a cultural divide in this country, we now have a patriot divide.
Maybe she's just pro bigotry, and since it's no longer acceptable, at least not in the Washington Post OP/Ed pages to call the President-Elect a n*gg*r (yet), she just needed someone else to hate.

It's circular firing squad time, and unlike in 1964, there are no moderates left to target....

I'm going to get some popcorn.

*It was a typo, then I realized that I was funnier by accident than I was on purpose.

News Flash: When You Torture Someone for a Few Years, They Frequently Go Nuts

A judge has determined that Aafia Siddiqui is mentally unfit for trial.

Not surprising, considering that she was apprehended by the Pakistani ISI, and, along with three children were handed over to American authorities about 5 years ago, and held with recourse to...anything. (JFGI)

I have no knowledge of what was done to her, but it is unquestionably clear that she was held by Pakistani and/or US authorities over that period, and I'm sure that it was not a tea party.

Sometimes, Good Legislation Comes Back Too

In this case, a change to bankruptcy laws that would allow judges to modify mortgages on primary residences.

Right now it can be done on a vacation home, recreational boat, etc., but not on a primary residence, but Senator Dick Durbin (D-IL) is bringing back a change in bankruptcy law to change this.

According to reports, this will be a priority of Obama, but we are hearing that about a lot of things right now.

This is a very good law for a number of reasons:
  • Modifying mortgages is cheaper than foreclosure.
  • With mortgages sliced and diced 6 ways from Sunday, it is currently impossible to get consent from the holders of the mortgages to renegotiate the loans.
  • It punishes the players who created the bubble.
  • The cost to people taking out mortgages is minuscule, on the order of 25-75 basis points (¼-¾%), which should not make a significant difference in home affordability.
  • It makes the use of arcane financial instruments on home mortgages less certain, and hence less likely.

True Evil

To demand full obedience, no thought, no doubts, no conscience, just obedience.

And only 72.9 miles driving distance from me:
Rob Foster was 16 when his family unraveled.

He had told his parents that he wanted to leave Calvary Temple, the Pentecostal church in Sterling the family had attended for decades. But church leaders were blunt with his parents: Throw your son out of the house, or you will be excommunicated. And so that December two years ago, Gary and Marsha Foster told Rob that he had to leave. They would not see him or talk to him.
It's repulsive, and if subjected churches to the same level of fiscal accountability as other non-profits, it's clear that he would be in jail for that

18 November 2008

Medvedev Blinks

It looks like he is taking some steps backward from his suggestion that he would install missiles in Kaliningrad.

The question is whether this is a change in direction, or merely tactics.

Paul Krugman pwn$* George Will

It's nice that Krugman was there when George Will started spewing the standard talking point of the Republicans about the Great Depression, that Roosevelt made it worse because investors went on strike.

The reality is, that the economy clawed its way back because of the New Deal, and when Roosevelt eased up on the fiscal gas in 1937, everything went down again.

In 30 seconds, he showed Will that he did not know what he was talking about.

What worries me is that most days, Krugman would not have been there.



*Owns

IAEA Says Evidence from Syrian Site Inconclusive

International Atomic Energy Agency Director Mohamed ElBaradei does say that Syria is not being as cooperative as he would like but that at this point he does not have sufficient evidence to report undeclared nuclear activity by the Damascus government.

Isn't This Like Paying Off One Credit Card with Another?

So, the Treasury is unwinding a roughly $550 billion temporary T-bill program it set up to finance the Federal Reserve's sh$#pile for cash program, so that people will buy longer term Treasuries to fund the larger bailout.

I Can't Wait for Bush and His Evil Minions&trade to Go

And I really hope that Obama uses the screw up on the time frame for the rules that Bush is issuing to reverse them.

Latest case in point:
The proposed rule would prohibit recipients of federal money from discriminating against doctors, nurses and other health care workers who refuse to perform or to assist in the performance of abortions or sterilization procedures because of their "religious beliefs or moral convictions."
It should be interesting.

If he doesn't reverse this one in the first week he's sworn in......

Report: Hillary Clinton to Accept Offer of Secretary of State Position

At least that is the word from The Grauniad.*

We'll see, but I'm still dubious.

*According to the Wiki, The Guardian, formerly the Manchester Guardian in the UK. It's nicknamed the Grauniad because of its penchant for typographical errors, "The nickname The Grauniad for the paper originated with the satirical magazine Private Eye. It came about because of its reputation for frequent and sometimes unintentionally amusing typographical errors, hence the popular myth that the paper once misspelled its own name on the page one masthead as The Gaurdian, though many recall the more inventive The Grauniad."

Foreclosures in So Cal Break 50%

In addition, home prices are down 41% over the past 18 months.

Average house prices are down to $300,000, a level not seen since 2003, and I would note, as Rich Toscano does, that in a down market, expensive houses shift the average upwards, so the number to look at would be $/square foot, which is probably down even further.

Even if the square foot price is not down, this is Argentina meltdown lower.

Iceland: Payback's a Bitch

Well, in response to being declared a terrorist nation by they UK, and by the IMF attempting to impose draconian conditions on it, Iceland's President Olafur Ragnar Grimsson has invited Russia to use the old US Air Force base at Keflavik.

The US closed the base in 2006, so certainly the space is available, and the Russians could pay in cash, though the Russian ambassador was as flummoxed as the rest of the people at the diplomatic luncheon.

As to where this will end up, I tend to think that between the gentle ministrations of Gordon Brown and the International Monetary Fund, there is a pretty good chance that the Russians will end up with both Keflavik and a naval basing agreement.

Did Howard Dean Just Deliver a Steaming Helping of F%$# You to Barack Obama?

Howard Dean gave an interview on the Senate's cave to Lieberman, and said that the action was, "in the spirit of unification, which is what the President-elect wanted" and that, "He called the shots, and that's fine."

There are doubtless a more than a few people with steam pouring out of their ears right now, and it sounds like the good doctor just painted a target on Obama's back.

IMHO, Obama deserves to catch grief over this. It's clear that he figured that he wanted Lieberman in the tent pissing out, but he's been in the tent, pissing in, for the past 4 years.

Begich Wins

He is 3,724 votes ahead with only about 2500 remaining to count, so absent a recount, and it's outside the range where Stevens would get it for free, it looks like Mark Begich is the next Senator for Alaska.

I'm happier, but I'm sure that the Republicans in the Senate are even more relieved that they don't have to deal with this.

It's also Ted Stevens' birthday today...Ouch.

Obama Announces AG Choice

Eric Holder, former deputy AG under Clinton.

I really don't know anything about him.