Economics Update

Well, the obvious lede is the unemployment numbers, with the weekly new unemployment claims, which are a very noisy metric, and continuing claims, which are not, beinb positively ghastly.

Weekly numbers rose to 542,000, whichn is the highest since mid 1992, and well above the estimate of 502,000 and continuing unemployment claims hit 4,012,000, up 109,000, the highest level since 1982.

Therefore, it is no surprise that the index of leading economic indicators fell in October, as die the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's business activity index, to an 18 year low, and the Architecture Billings Index, an indicator of future construction activity, fell to an all time low.

Meanwhile in the bond market, so many people are fleeing to US treasuries that rates have been driven to historic, and near historic lows, while the costs of insuring private bonds has returned to the stratosphere.

For what it's worth, we have some good news for a bond insurer, specifically Ambac, which has managed to negotiate a cancellation of $3.5 billion in insurance contracts, which is obviously a serious reduction in liabilities.

In energy, oil briefly fell under $50/bbl, and retail gasoline prices seem to be heading below $2/gallon.

In currency, the dollar is mixed.