TACO for Profit

Is this the best timed trade of 2026?

At 6:50 AM ET today, $1.5 BILLION in notional value worth of S&P 500 futures contracts were bought.

This trade was so large it sent the entire index +0.3% higher that minute.

Then, 14 minutes later at 7:04 AM ET, President Trump announced… pic.twitter.com/zFdZ1sQxeq

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 23, 2026

Roll Tape!

So, Donald Trump announced a unilateral suspension of some strikes on Iran, because Trump Always Chickens Out.

I do not expect Iran to reciprocate, because they (IMHO correctly) believe that this is merely a ploy by the Americans to time for the next round of attacks.

I think that Trump's announcement on social media that there have been, "Very good and productive conversations," probably has another motivation, personal profit.

You see, minutes before he posted it, someone made billions of dollars in futures trades, on the S&P 500 going up and oil prices falling.

It seems that someone was trading on this information, and my guess is that their name rhymes with Ronald Lon Rump. 

Unusually large futures trades placed minutes before a major geopolitical announcement have sparked allegations of potential insider trading, after market participants pointed to timing and scale that appeared closely aligned with U.S. policy developments.

According to data shared by the market-tracking account unusual_whales, approximately $1.5 billion in S&P 500 futures contracts were purchased while roughly $192 million in oil futures were sold just five minutes before President Donald Trump announced a halt to attacks on Iran.

The trades were reportedly four to six times larger than typical order sizes observed at that time.

The sequence of events has raised questions over whether the trades were informed by non-public information, given the immediate market reaction that followed.

What will the SEC do about these suspicious trades? 

I think that they will take a cue from Inspector Renault.

One of these days,  I need to watch Casablanca in one sitting.

I've seen all of it, but not all at once.