05 September 2025

Well, the BLS Is Still Providing Honest Numbers ……… For a While, At Least

The August jobs report was brutal; only 22,000 new jobs, at least 125,000 to account for natural labor force growth, and the June jobs report was revised to a negative number, -13,000.

My guess is tha the June numbers were revised down bnecause the US government wass lackadaisical in reporting job losses from DOGE. 

U.S. job growth continued to slow down in August, with just 22,000 new jobs—a sign that the labor market is deteriorating markedly. 

Friday’s report adds to a summer of slow hiring and points to a stagnant job market that has lengthened job searches, shut young people out of employment and increased unemployment for Black workers.

The Labor Department’s report also highlighted weakness from earlier in the year. The government revised its numbers from previous months and said that the economy lost a net 13,000 jobs in June. It was the first such decline since December 2020.

The losses in August were widespread, with the report showing drops in employment across sectors including manufacturing and finance. Unemployment rose to 4.3% from 4.2%. That is still relatively low, suggesting that immigration restrictions are crimping the supply of available workers.

The report was also the first since President Trump a month ago fired the head of the agency that puts together the jobs data, after the July release painted a surprisingly gloomy picture of the economy.

This, you stupid pig-felching bastards, is what happens when you shoot the messenger.

Some context

………

The U.S. has added just 598,000 jobs so far in 2025. Outside of 2020, when the pandemic hit, that is the fewest for the first eight months of the year since 2009, when the economy was buckled by the financial crisis. The weakness has been particularly pronounced since May—the month after Trump announced his sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs—with an average gain of about 26,750 jobs a month.

………

Federal government employment declined by 15,000 jobs. However, those losses don’t reflect the magnitude of the massive job cuts the Trump administration has announced.

Many federal workers have been on paid leave or are still getting severance pay, and therefore still counted as employed. JPMorgan Chase economists said that about 150,000 employees who took deferred resignations, and are still counted as having jobs, are set to roll off of government payrolls starting in October.

Meanwhile, in Canada, unemployment rose to 7.1%,which is likely very similar to the US numbers when one considers that Canada, like most of the rest of the industrialized world, has less restrictive metrics for counting unemployment.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/sep/05/us-jobs-report-august-tariffs 

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