It's Thursday ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Not good news, with initial claims rising to a 2 month high and continuing claims rising to a 4 year high.

I would note here that it's the continuing claims, (I am STILL part of this statistic) that are of concern.

While the (inherently noisy, in this case driven by Spring Break in New York) continuing claims data shows that employers are still very conscious of the costs of laying people off, the continuing claims show that they are currently loath to engage in new hiring.

Applications for US unemployment benefits rose to the highest level since February during the week that followed Easter and spring recess at New York City public schools.

Initial claims increased by 18,000 to 241,000 in the week ended April 26, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 223,000 applications.

Before adjusting for seasonal factors, initial claims increased about 12,900 last week. Applications in New York alone rose more than 15,500. Some school workers in New York City, such as bus drivers and janitors, are allowed to apply for benefits during winter and spring breaks. This could account for the large gain in the state’s unemployment claims. 

………

The four-week moving average of new applications, a metric that helps smooth out fluctuations from week-to-week, rose to 226,000.

The number of job cuts announced by US-based employers dropped to about 105,400 in April as plans to shed federal workers subsided, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said in a report. After some 280,000 firings linked to the actions of the Department of Government Efficiency were announced in March, last month’s tally included only about DOGE-related 2,700 job-cut plans.

Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, rose to 1.92 million in the week ended April 19, the highest since 2021 and a sign that it is taking longer for out-of-work people to find a job. The figure exceeded all estimates.

What should be noted is that at this point, most of these federal firings are either:

• Stayed by judicial order,
• Not complete, so the workers are still on paid leave, and cannot file for benefits.

We are seeing the beginnings of the bow wave of federal firing, 

Also, we have the tariffs, which will cause damage even if not implemented, as much of our economy is frozen in place waiting for the other shoe to drop.

I'm not sure if this is really bad news, but it sure as hell ain't good news.