02 May 2025

And Now the Monthly Jobs Report

And ADP's survey was wrong with 177,000 new jobs added to the non farm payroll and unemployment remaining at 4.2%.

The U.S. labor market steadily added jobs last month despite jolting tariff announcements that many economists expect will give way to a trade policy-induced slowdown later this year.

The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. added 177,000 jobs in April, above the gain of 133,000 jobs that economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected to see. The unemployment rate, which is based on a separate survey from the jobs figures, held steady at 4.2%.

The report revealed solid data “that no one wants to trust,” said Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at investment bank Jefferies. That is because the figures likely reflected staffing decisions made in February and March, before President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements early in the month that induced significant market volatility.

………

The time frame of the jobs survey only captures so much. The Labor Department asks employers how many people they had on their payrolls during any pay period that includes the 12th of the month. That provides a limited look at companies’ early thinking on how to adjust to sudden tariff announcements.

I think that we are not seeing the full effects of chaos in international commerce and international finance yet.

Also, there is this:

………

What’s more, businesses and individuals are telling surveys that they are worried about the economy. Consumer sentiment in April hit one of its lowest levels on record, according to the University of Michigan.

The pace of April’s job gains was lower than the 185,000 jobs added in March. The gains for February and March were revised down by a combined 58,000 jobs. Hourly wages grew by less than expected compared with both a month ago and a year ago.

Some of April’s job gains may have been driven by the burst of activity that occurred as companies worked to get in front of tariffs, said Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Samuel Tombs. Employment in the transportation and warehousing sector rose by 29,000 jobs last month.

I think that we are in a recession now, while I am looking for a job.

Sucks like 1,000 Electrolux all going at once,

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