Economics Update

Unemployment rose to 6.5% from 6.1%, a 14 year high, and total non farm employment fell by 240 thousand.

Can we call it a recession already?

If not, how about I draw you a picture:


Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing report fell to 38.9%, the worst number since September 1983.

And, just so now, the real estate recovery ain't coming soon, not with Property & Portfolio Research Inc. the New York City metro commercial property vacancy rate hitting 17.6%.

FWIW, they had predicted a peak of 13% 3 months ago, but it's already at 12%.

Meanwhile the National Association of Realtors^® says that pending home sales fell 4.6% in Septmeber.

At least we are not in the UK, where house prices fell 15% year over year.

That being said, some of the indicators for the finance market appear to be moderating, with spreads edging down, and money flowing back into mutual funds for the first time in 3½ months.

Additionally, it looks like consumers are using their credit cards a bit more.


The bad economic news news has driven the dollar down, and the weak dollar appears to have beaten recession today on the oil markets, where crude is up a smidgen.

Not surprisingly, Gasoline is down at the pump, the 51^st day in a row.