It looks like Donald Trump is attempting to seize control of Greenland again. (archive.is link)
This time, it looks like Trump is trying to get something like the Platt Amendment, which left Cuba with sovereignty in name only for nearly 40 years.
To quote Howard Chaykin, "Damn, and a rerun too."
Donald Trump demanded that NATO allies supply warships to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Their response, "Fuck you white man."*
This is totally not a surprise.
As President Trump’s assault on Iran enters its third week, European leaders are largely resisting his bellicose demands for help in reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, they are trying to avoid irreparably damaging their relationship with the United States over their opposition to another war of America’s choosing.………
The American president also issued a not-so-veiled warning in an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday, saying that “it will be very bad for the future of NATO” if European nations do not join the United States in its effort to reopen the vital waterway to tankers carrying oil, gas and fertilizer. At Monday’s event, he said: “I think we’re going to have some good help. And I think we’re going to be disappointed in some nations, too.”
………
“My leadership is about standing firm for the British interest, no matter the pressure,” Mr. Starmer said without specifically referencing the president. He added that British officials were working with “all of our allies, including our European partners” on what could be done collectively to reopen the Strait.
Even America's poodle is not willing to send their ships into a meat grinder for them.
………
“This is not our war; we did not start it,” Boris Pistorius, Germany’s defense minister, said on Monday morning. He said Germany wanted diplomatic solutions and “sending more warships to the region will likely not help achieve that.”
Even the Germans aren't interesting in this war. That's gotta hurt.
People do not take kindly to vindictive bullies,
*It's a very old joke.
The Lone Ranger and Tonto are being pursued by Apaches, and they are chased into a box canyon.
The Lone Ranger says, "Well Tonto, this looks like the end," and Tonto says, "Fuck you white man."
Now Is the Time to Admit It, America: Donald Trump Is a Dangerous, Lunatic Moron
—The Daily Beast, on Donald Trump's completely deranged missive to the Prime Minister of Norway about Greenland
I was going to write about it, but DB writer David Rothkopf has kind of nailed this.
Short version: Trump wrote to the Norwegian PM Jonas Gahr Støre explaining that because he did not get a Nobel Peace Prize, he was going to have to invade Greenland.
Notice a couple of things:
He is not just joking. He is not just trolling.
He is not owning the libs. He is not simply toying with the mainstream media.
He is not playing 3-D chess.
He is not a master of the art of the deal. He is not a business genius. He is not a political savant.
He is not a peacemaker. He does not believe in “America first” or even know what it means. And he has no intention of making America “great again.”
No matter who you are, no matter how close you are to him, he does not represent you or even care about your interests.
No. He’s none of the good or great things the slavering fluffers in his Cabinet or on his White House staff make him out to be. And none of the defenses his enablers on Capitol Hill and in the press and across the country have used in the past work any longer.
He is just a dangerous lunatic moron who has become the most powerful man in the world.
And if you do not recognize that, you are part of the problem.
This is serious 25th Amendment shit. (Letter below)
Europe’s Daddy Issues
—Jacobin, on NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's stunningly obsequious behavior toward Donald Trump
While there are legitimate reasons for people to disagree as to whether NATO is still necessary as a military force or not, it's position as a standards organization is indesputable, (STANAGs) the behavior of senior NATO officials in Europe is the strongest argument for sh%$-canning the whole thing.
NATO is to European self-governance as Charlie McCarthy is to script writing:
On Wednesday, Donald Trump and former Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte sat down for a press conference at the NATO summit in The Hague.
………
Asked about the ongoing war between Israel and Iran — a conflict that, despite his promises of peace and isolationism, Trump himself dragged the United States into — the president expressed his thoughts in characteristically inappropriate terms: “They’ve had a big fight, like two kids in a schoolyard. They fight like hell; you can’t stop them. Let them fight for about two, three minutes, then it’s easier to stop them.”
Usually whichever world leader happens to sit next to Trump just listens. Sometimes they force a smile, steal a concerned or confused glance at the cameras, or put on a poker face to try to hide their disbelief at the situation.
Rutte didn’t quite do this. Stooping down to — or rather below — Trump’s rhetorical level, he replied with all the tact and grace you’d expect from a seasoned statesman: “Daddy has to sometimes use strong language.”
While some European officials were embarrassed by Rutte’s conduct (speaking anonymously, one source told Politico that “the sucking up was pretty over the top”), others followed his example. “The vibes were good,” someone else said. “This is the Trump effect.” Diplomats reportedly congratulated the president on brokering a cease-fire between Israel and Iran, one that both parties have since violated. The Dutch king took part in the operation too, inviting Trump — a well-known fanboy of all things royal and dynastic — to a palace sleepover.
The people who oppose NATO accuse it of being a lap-dog of US interests.
The people who support NATO respond with, "Here, hold my beer."
So, Poland has released plans for an intricate and expensive set of barriers between them ane Russia.
This sounds awfully familiar, but I just can't put my finger on it:
A NATO country unveiled a new plan for its border intended to defend against attacks coming from Russia.
Poland's defense ministry on Monday touted its "east shield," an operation to strengthen its eastern border with Russia and Belarus.
It said the effort would be the largest defensive effort on NATO's eastern flank since World War II ended in 1945.
A diagram released as part of a policy document showed one segment of the planned "border zone."
It featured at least eight distinct types of defense:
- A permanent fence
- Barbed wire
- An anti-tank ditch
- A field of anti-tank obstacles (known as hedgehogs)
- Mines
- Another ditch
- A layer of vegetation
Officials also stated plans for increasing warning and tracking systems and anti-drone systems as well as preparing forward operating bases.
For some odd reason, I am feeling nostalgic.
The leftist populist Nato and Euro skeptic Robert Fico and his Smer party have formed coalition government and become Slovak PM for the 3rd time.
His coalition includes Hlas party, which hived off from Smer in 2020, and the ultra-nationalist Slovak National Party.
He terminated arms aid to the Ukraine, as he had promised during the campaign, though commercial military deals will continue.
The freakouts are beginning already, particularly from the Baltic States.
In addition to the Ukraine and relations with Russia, turning away from the previous government's neoliberal dismantling of their social safety net appears to have figured prominently in this election.
In terms of the war, withdrawing military aid is int particularly significant, the contributions were never large, and Slovakia's military inventories are already depleted, and there are no indications that they would prevent the transit of 3rd party weapons to the Ukraine.
I do think that populists in general, and right nationalist populists in particular are likely to make gains across Europe.
Both the stresses of war, and the pushes by Brussels for austerity create a Petri dish for political extremism, particularly given the EU's largely anti-democratic structures making other alternatives politically non viable.
I know that this is from the Torygraph (Telegraph) but this anonymous quote from an anonymous senior military official constitutes a statement against interest.
He said that the UK has run out of weapon stocks to the Ukraine.
This is a kind of war that no one in the West has fought in more than a generation.
Britain has run out of defence equipment to donate to Ukraine and other countries should step in and shoulder more of the burden, a senior military chief has said.
The comments come after Ben Wallace revealed that he asked Rishi Sunak to spend £2.3 billion more on support for Ukraine before he resigned as defence secretary last month.
Mr Wallace warned that the UK had been overtaken by Germany as the biggest European military donor to Ukraine as he called for the 50 per cent increase on funding that the UK has committed so far.
The Western alliance has suffered a series of blows in recent days, with support for Ukraine dropped from a US stop-gap budget bill, election success for a pro-Russian party in Slovakia and rows between Poland and Kyiv over grain supplies.
On Monday, the Kremlin claimed that Western fatigue with the war “will grow”. The White House replied that Vladimir Putin was wrong to think he could outlast the pro-Kyiv alliance.
Last night a senior military source told The Telegraph that the onus should not be on the UK to provide the “billions” Mr Wallace has called for.
“Giving billions more doesn’t mean giving billions of British kit,” they said, adding that the UK had a role to play in “encouraging other nations to give more money and weapons”.
“We’ve given away just about as much as we can afford,” they added.
This is what near peer wars look like, and the US and NATO are completely unprepared for this.
It looks like the right left wing Smer party, headed by former PM Robert Fico
has won the parliamentary elections.
This bears note because Fico campaigned on eliminating aid to the Ukraine, and as a skeptic of both Brussels and Washington:
Slovakia’s populist former prime minister, Robert Fico, who campaigned on a pledge to end military aid to Ukraine, has said his position “has not changed” after his party’s clear election win made him favourite to lead the country for a fourth time.
Fico told reporters he was waiting for Slovakia’s president to give him a mandate to start forming a government – expected on Monday – after officials said on Sunday that Smer-SD had scored 22.9% in Saturday’s vote with 99.98% of ballots counted.
Fico said he was ready to open talks with other parties on forming a coalition government. “We’re here, we’re ready, we’ve learned something, we’re more experienced,” he said. “We have clear ideas; we have clear plans.”
The 59-year-old, whose pro-Moscow stance has sparked fears Slovakia will join Hungary and its authoritarian leader Viktor Orbán in challenging the EU’s consensus on support for Kyiv, added: “People in Slovakia have bigger problems than Ukraine.”
………
The liberal, pro-western Progressive Slovakia (PS) party finished second on just under 18%, with Hlas Рa spin-off from Smer formed after Fico was forced to resign in 2018 amid mass popular protests following the murder of an investigative journalist and his fianc̩e Рthird on almost 15%.
The question here will be if Smer and Fico will be able to secure enough coalition partners to secure parliament.
My guess is that there is going to be a full court press from the EU and the United States to prevent this.
(Update)
Note my update on the party. So part of this is likely a revolt against EU austerity as well.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan has abruptly reversed his position on Sweden's accession to NATO.
It is particularly odd given that just a few days ago he was trying to tie this to Turkey joining the EU.
Either someone found a VERY credible threat to used against him, or he got some sort of commitment from Brussels:
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday agreed to support Sweden’s NATO bid, a high-stakes, last-minute reversal that came after a year of obstruction and on the eve of a major alliance summit.
The deal, announced Monday in the Lithuanian capital, does not confer membership. But if Turkey and fellow holdout Hungary indeed ratify Swedish accession, NATO will grow, cementing a major shift in European security in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“This is a historic day,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, expressing confidence that Erdogan would move quickly to have the Turkish legislature approve the ratification. Hungary has said it does not want to be last to ratify, and Stoltenberg said “that problem will be solved.”
………
In exchange for giving a green light to Sweden this time, Erdogan got Stockholm to agree to continue counterterrorism cooperation with Ankara. Sweden also said it would push inside the European Union to reduce trade barriers with Turkey and to make it easier for Turkish citizens to enter the E.U. Stoltenberg agreed to appoint a NATO counterterrorism coordinator, long a request of Turkey’s.
The joint news release said Sweden “reiterates” it would not support groups Turkey regards as terrorist entities — a key Erdogan demand — including a movement accused of trying to overthrow Erdogan’s government in 2016 and a Kurdish militia in Syria affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, which has fought a long insurgency against the Turkish government.
Again, I wish that I had a clue what the f%$# was going on here.
While I do claim some knowledge regarding weapons systems and related technology as well as the vicissitudes of US defense contracting, I've spent much of the past 40 years working for the US Military—Industrial complex, I have never made much of a study of the actual conduct of war.
As such, I know that there is an offensive being conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces, but I keep coming across conflicting claims.
It is reasonable to assume that the Ukrainians are attempting something close to the NATO tactics, NATO training has been widely reported, I also think that Russia is probably looking at Kursk as a model for dealing with the Ukrainian offensive, because that offensive has been telegraphed for weeks.
I have no clue as to how this will all end up. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
It looks like the earlier suggestion that some random Ukrainian group blew up the Nord Stream pipelines from using a rented yacht is being dropped, not the least of this is because the boat is not large enough to accommodate a full setup for deep diving, nearly a ton of explosives and related equipment, a decompression chamber, and related support equipment.
At the very least, the whole, "Rented Yacht," thing is now being dismissed, even though there are reports that explosive residues were found on board.
After saboteurs severely damaged the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines last September, German officials zeroed in on a rented sailboat that appeared to have taken part in planting explosive devices deep below the surface of the Baltic Sea.
But after months of investigation, law enforcement officials now suspect that the 50-foot yacht, the Andromeda, was probably not the only vessel used in the audacious attack. They also say the boat may have been a decoy, put to sea to distract from the true perpetrators, who remain at large, according to officials with knowledge of an investigation led by Germany’s attorney general. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to share details about the active inquiry, including doubts about the Andromeda’s role that haven’t been previously reported.
Officials hope that the true purpose of Andromeda in the deep-sea demolition will provide further insight in a high-stakes, international whodunnit that could eventually lead to those responsible and explain their motives, which remain unclear.
……….
Such an operation would have taken multiple dives, exposing the Andromeda to detection from nearby ships. The mission would have been easier to hide and pull off using remotely piloted underwater vehicles or small submarines, said diving and salvage experts who have worked in the area of the explosion, which features rough seas and heavy shipping traffic.
The German investigation has determined that traces of “military-grade” explosives found on a table inside the boat’s cabin match the batch of explosives used on the pipeline. Several officials doubted that skilled saboteurs would leave such glaring evidence of their guilt behind. They wonder if the explosive traces — collected months after the rented boat was returned to its owners — were meant to falsely lead investigators to the Andromeda as the vessel used in the attack.
“The question is whether the story with the sailboat is something to distract or only part of the picture,” said one person with knowledge of the investigation.
They found residues on the table? They were making bombs with over 100kg of explosives on the dining room table of a yacht? Seriously?
If they were making, or assembling, bombs on the boat, residues would be everywhere, and if they were simply transporting the bombs, the residue would be nowhere.
No wonder investigators are skeptical.
………
The German investigation has linked the yacht rental to a Polish company, which is in turn owned by a European company that’s connected to a prominent Ukrainian, fueling speculation from Berlin to Warsaw to Kyiv that a deep-pocketed partisan may have financed the operation. The identity of the Polish company and the Ukrainian individual, as well as his potential motive, remains unclear.
………
Suspicion also has turned toward Ukraine as the culprit behind the Nord Stream bombings, based in part on intercepted communications of pro-Ukraine individuals discussing the possibility of carrying out an attack on the pipelines before the explosions, The Washington Post previously reported.
Only the Ukraine lacked the means to conduct such an operation. Even if they found a way to transport their divers to the Baltic Sea with the requisite deep diving experience, they would have had deep sea experience in the far warmer, and far more docile, Black Sea, and so the entire team would have needed weeks or months of training.
They might possibly have been able to hire people able to do this, but not without the knowledge and tacit assent of the United States, particularly given the economic reporting that would doubtless have to be otherwise made in order to comply with US sanctions.
………
For all the intrigue around who bombed the pipeline, some Western officials are not so eager to find out.
At gatherings of European and NATO policymakers, officials have settled into a rhythm, said one senior European diplomat: “Don’t talk about Nord Stream.” Leaders see little benefit from digging too deeply and finding an uncomfortable answer, the diplomat said, echoing sentiments of several peers in other countries who said they would rather not have to deal with the possibility that Ukraine or allies were involved.
This level of diplomatic omerta is not about the Ukraine, who would continue to get support if they were found to be culpable, or the Poles, who are generally viewed with alarm by the other members of NATO.
Said diplomats are concerned that a serious investigation would point to the United States or the UK, and if that were the case, the repercussion would likely shatter the increasingly fragile consensus on the Ukraine war.
This is not evidence that the US or UK were involved, after all, the CIA was not involved in the JFK assassination, but they spent months worrying that someone that they supported was involved, but it says a lot about the current state of mind within the alliance.
About a week ago, I suggested that Germany was holding off on sending Leopard to the Ukraine until the US sends Abrams tanks to the former Soviet Republic because they wanted to be sure that there were pictures of both tanks being destroyed on the battlefield, which would minimize potential impacts on their tank sales.
The US pushed back hard, suggesting without providing much data, that the M-1 was too much of a tank for the Ukrainians, while the Leopard was.
Secretary of Defense, and tool of the Military Industrial Complex, Lloyd Austin was reportedly apoplectic over this.
Well, it now appears that, the United States blinked first, and will be sending about a dozen tanks to the Ukraine:
The United States appears poised to start a process that would eventually send dozens of its M1 Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine, US media reported, in a reversal that could have significant implications for Kyiv’s efforts to repel Russian forces.
………
The move follows reports on Tuesday that Berlin has succumbed to huge international and domestic pressure and was set to announce that it will send German-manufactured tanks to Ukraine, and allow other countries to do the same.
An official US announcement that it will send just over 30 tanks is expected to come on Wednesday, a US official told the Associated Press.
………
While eventually backtracking, Berlin had said it would only send the Leopard tanks to Ukraine if the United States agreed to send its own tanks.
“The only reason the United States would send M1 tanks to Ukraine is to give Germany the political cover it requires to unlocking the Leopard tanks,” said Mark Cancian, a defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
I know that some folks will suggest that my ascribing all of this to crass military salesmanship is excessively cynical, but it appears to me that pretty much any US military endeavor in my lifetime has been motivated in significant part by defense contractor profits.
Germany and the US are having a dispute over sending Leopard tanks to the Ukraine.
The dispute is that the Germans are unwilling to send their Leopard 2s to the Ukraine unless the US sends M-1 Abrams tanks to the Ukraine as well.
This has nothing to do with the diplomatic or military considerations, and it has everything to do with marketing.
The Germans recall the pictures from Syria where Leopard 2 tanks operated by the Turkish army suffered heavy casualties, a number of the tanks "brewing up."
This was an older model of the tank, and it was deployed poorly, but it was still a major embarrassment.
If the Ukrainians deploy either the Leopard 2 or the Abrams against a near-peer adversary like Russia, particularly when operated by a force that lacks the training and infrastructure to operate them properly like the Ukrainians. (They will for example have to train loaders for the NATO tanks, their current inventory uses auto-loaders)
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met his newly appointed German counterpart on Thursday for talks that took on greater urgency after Berlin put conditions on tank deliveries to Ukraine.
In a call this week with President Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz indicated that in order for Germany to unlock a package of Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine, Washington should send tanks, too, according to a German and a U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the private conversation.
It’s a move Washington doesn’t want to make, citing the high fuel consumption and maintenance burden of the U.S. military’s M1 Abrams battle tanks. Austin was hoping to break the deadlock in Berlin and persuade Germany to send tanks, according to a senior U.S. defense official.
As the manufacturer of the Leopard 2, Germany’s approval is technically required for any country in Europe to send those tanks on to Kyiv. But as frustrations mounted, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki threatened Wednesday night to send the 14 tanks Poland has promised — regardless of whether Germany approves.
While the Abrams does consume 3-5 times more fuel than the Leopard 2, but the operation of the other subsystems are roughly equivalent.
They both have similar issues with their impact on roads and bridges, and their maintenance requirements are similar.
This is all about merciless merchants of death being worried about the PR implications of seeing their tanks blown up on YouTube.
NATO Exists To Solve The Problems Created By NATO's Existence—Caitlin Johnstone
The old saw about NATO was that it was about, "Keeping the Americans in, the Russians out, and the Germans down."
While NATO does serve some valuable functions, I make regular use of NATO standards (STANAG) for example, it does seem that since the end of the cold war, it acts as a marketing tool for US defense contractors.
After 11th anniversary of #Gaddafi's death during #NATO's assault on #Libya - all in the name of freedom, democracy & human rights - we'd do well to remember what happened next: terror, death, lawlessness, rape, poverty, starvation. Libya riven by conflict. That's NATO's legacy. pic.twitter.com/7CUgdSvcmJ
— Clare Daly (@ClareDalyMEP) November 30, 2022
You left off open slave markets and an ongoing refugee crisis.
To his credit, Obama acknowledges that this was a mistake.
(on edit)
I did not look at the video attached. It is largely unrelated to the basic point.
Remember that AP story that came out when the missile fell on Polish territory, killing two?
It quoted an anonymous, "Intelligence Source," that said that the missile definitely was fired the Russians.
It is now almost certain that it was an errant Ukrainian SAM, and the Associated Press retracted in less than 24 hours.
This clusterf%$# has gotten embarrassing enough that the AP has fired James LaPorta, the reporter who wrote the story.
Based on this report of what happened, it seems to me that this was a case of finding the least senior person to take the fall.
The editors should be flipping burgers as well:
The Associated Press scared much of the world last Tuesday when it alerted readers that “a senior U.S. intelligence official” said “Russian missiles crossed into NATO member Poland, killing two people.”
That report, which was widely cited across the internet and on cable news, was taken offline the following day and replaced with an editor’s note admitting the single source was wrong and that “subsequent reporting showed that the missiles were Russian-made and most likely fired by Ukraine in defense against a Russian attack.”
On Monday, the AP fired James LaPorta, the investigative reporter responsible for that story, Confider has learned.
The piece, which was originally co-bylined with John Leicester (who is still working at the AP), attributed the information to a single “senior U.S. intelligence official,” despite the AP’s rule that it “routinely seeks and requires more than one source when sourcing is anonymous.”
………
The only exception, according to its statement of news values and principles, is when “material comes from an authoritative figure who provides information so detailed that there is no question of its accuracy”—a situation that seemingly did not occur, as the report was fully retracted last Wednesday.
………
It is unclear who edited LaPorta’s reporting in question or whether they faced any discipline for the error.
Until this story was debunked, numerous entities were talking about invoking NATO Article 5, which could have resulted in open hostilities between Russia and NATO.
If you are wondering why I think that the editors should have been fired ……… out of a cannon ……… and into the sun, there is this bit of editorial thinging that the Washington Post reports:
………
Internal AP communications viewed by The Post show some confusion and misunderstanding during the preparations of the erroneous report.
LaPorta shared the U.S. official’s tip in an electronic message around 1:30 p.m. Eastern time. An editor immediately asked if AP should issue an alert on his tip, “or would we need confirmation from another source and/or Poland?”
After further discussion, a second editor said she “would vote” for publishing an alert, adding, “I can’t imagine a U.S. intelligence official would be wrong on this.”
But a person at the Associated Press familiar with the larger conversations surrounding the story that day said LaPorta also told his editors that a senior manager had already vetted the source of LaPorta’s tip — leaving the impression that the story’s sourcing had been approved. While that editor had signed off on previous stories using LaPorta’s source, that editor had not weighed in on the missile story.
Easton said the organization did not anticipate any discipline for the editors involved.
(emphasis mine)
These folks are editors? They have the journalistic acumen of Little Orphan Annie.
I am not saying that LaPorta should not have been fired, but those editors should be rewriting obituaries for the next 18 months under the most forgiving of circumstances.
Additional images of 5V55K debris from July. https://t.co/o1fJuM11Va
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) November 15, 2022
As you may have heard, a missile struck the village of Przewodów in Poland, about 6 km from the border with the Ukraine, and killed two people.
Initial reports, most notably a very dubiously sourced AP story, ("A Senior U.S. intelligence official") stated that the missile, a component of the SA-300 surface to air missile system (NATO designation SA-10 Grumble, SA-12 Giant/Gladiator, and SA-20 Gargoyle) was almost certainly fired by Russia.
The missile in question, from the debris pictures, is a 5V55 which can be fired in surface to surface mode, and has a range of 150 km, which means that the only place under any semblance of Russian control is a small corner of Belarus.
As the missile fell during a substantial Russian attack on Ukrainian infrastructure, the most likely explanation is that this was an errant missile from the Ukrainian air defense systems, while the second most likely explanation would be a Russian SSM similarly going off course.
A deliberate Russian strike, which might invoke NATO Article 5, and hence a direct military confrontation between NATO, including the United States, and Russia, was the least likely scenario.
Well, this morning, Polish President Andrzej Duda stated that it was almost certain that it was a Ukrainian SAM that struck the village.
This means that today, at least, we are not going to war with Russia, and the possibility of a nuclear exchange between nations possessing the world's two most powerful nuclear arsenals is less than it was 12 hours ago.
I probably should have posted this last night, my guess at the time was an errant SAM, but it was late, I was tired, and I figured that we would get more information in the next 24 hours.
Just a note: This situation is far more volatile, and far more dangerous, than what we see in Western (or for that matter, Russian) media.
If this goes really pear shaped, we could see a nuclear exchange.
Recep Tayyip ErdoÄŸan has expressed opposition to Finland and Sweden joining NATO.
My reaction to this was that this was part of ErdoÄŸan's pissing contest with the US over the Turkish purchase of the Russian S-400 surface to air missile system, which resulted in the cancellation of sales of F35s to Ankara.
It may be more than that. Sweden has exchanged consular officials with the "Kurdistan Region" in northern Iraq, and as such, they are much closer to a formal recognition of Kurdish independence than any other nation in Europe.
A central tenet of Turkish foreign policy since the founding of modern Turkey, has been the vociferous opposition to Kurdish self-determination and autonomy all Kurds, whether in Turkey, or in neighboring regions.
This may not be an easily resolved issue.
My guess is that the US response will be to pressure Swedish officials to distance themselves from the government of Iraqi Kurdistan, because screwing the Kurds has been US policy for more than 40 years.
When one looks at a lot of the military analysis out there, we need to acknowledge something important, there has not been a near peer military conflict that involved the west since the Korean War armistice was signed in 1953.
There have been other near peer conflicts, the Arab-Israeli wars, the India-Pakistan wars, the China-India war, and the conflict between China and Vietnam, but the neither the US nor any of the NATO powers have engaged in a war with a near peer since they fought against the Chinese on the ground, and the Russians in the air, in the early 1950s.
What this means is that no one that you are seeing on the TV right now has any meaningful experience with this sort of conflict.
It's clear that Europe/NATO over-matches Russia in a potential war, both in number of troops and the underlying technology, excluding nuclear weapons,* but the military establishment, whose military establishment has been engaging in asymmetric warfare against brown people (see the video for the "mangoes" context) for the past 70 years likely to find such a conflict more complex, and more costly, than they anticipate, much like WWI.
It will no more be a cake walk than Russia's current experience in the Ukraine.
In the interest of honesty, I would note that the main reason that I posted this was because I love this Blackadder clip. I love the "Mango" bit.
*Apart from that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
The Pentagon has declared that finds Poland's offer of MiG-29s to the Ukraine is, "Not tenable."
This is not a surprise. The Polish MiG-29s are different from the Ukrainian ones. They have different configurations, and over the past few years different upgrades and different maintenance regimes.
It generally takes over a year in peacetime to incorporate a new aircraft into an air force. The Polish and Ukrainian Fulcrums are very similar aircraft, so it probably would only take a few months, in peacetime.
It's a grand gesture, but in the current circumstances it's pretty empty gesture: (There are also significant legal issues)
After several days of discussions around a fighter jet swap that would see Poland give its MiG-29 fleet to Ukraine in exchange for American F-16s, Poland today announced that it is ready to give America the jets and let Washington then transfer them to Kyiv.
The problem: it seems no one told the US, and after hours of confusion, a Pentagon statement effectively shut the door on the plan.
The Polish announcement, published in English on a government website Tuesday afternoon, stated that the “authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Government, are ready to deploy — immediately and free of charge — all their MIG-29 jets to the Ramstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America.
“At the same time, Poland requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities. Poland is ready to immediately establish the conditions of purchase of the planes. The Polish Government also requests other NATO Allies — owners of MIG-29 jets — to act in the same vein.”
………
“The prospect of fighter jets ‘at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America’ departing from a U.S./NATO base in Germany to fly into airspace that is contested with Russia over Ukraine raises serious concerns for the entire NATO alliance. It is simply not clear to us that there is a substantive rationale for it,” the statement said, noting that the proposal “shows just some of the complexities this issue presents.”
………
Even before the Pentagon all but killed Poland’s proposal, there were legal questions about how the US could accept a gift of almost 30 Russian-made fighters from Poland. A precedent for such a deal, where the US accepts a gift of weapons from another country was not immediately apparent, nor is it clear what legal method the US would use to transfer those weapons back to Ukraine.
Then there are questions about logistics — how the jets would get to Ukraine without being shot down by Russian air assets, where they would be based, who would fly and maintain them, how the Ukrainian pilots would get to Germany to take control of the planes and, not to mention, how quickly the US could backfill planes to Poland.
I'm pretty sure that the Poles were aware of the multitude of issues that this proposal has raised, but there will be a parliamentary election at some point in the next 18 months, and this will play well in the voting booth.
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A member of the Democratic wing of the Democratic party, and a fan of Bernie who thinks Neoliberal (DLC/New Dem) trickle down conomics sucks.Mechanical Engineer with a background in defense, electronics packaging, medical & food equipment, transportation, and manufacturing.
In my spare time (Hah!), I am the developer of the Firefox addon, bbCode for Web Extensions (bbCodeWebEx).
I have two cats, a black cat, and a gray and white long hair cat, who keep me on my toes. (Because he keeps attacking my feet)
I am a Jew and a Zionist, who is married to a woman with exquisitely bad taste in men, and I have two remarkable children with her.
