We're Gonna Need a Bigger Boat

Not a likely platform

It looks like the earlier suggestion that some random Ukrainian group blew up the Nord Stream pipelines from using a rented yacht is being dropped, not the least of this is because the boat is not large enough to accommodate a full setup for deep diving, nearly a ton of explosives and related equipment, a decompression chamber, and related support equipment.

At the very least, the whole, "Rented Yacht," thing is now being dismissed, even though there are reports that explosive residues were found on board.

It appears that the investigators were thinking that those residues were an attempt to throw off investigators.

After saboteurs severely damaged the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines last September, German officials zeroed in on a rented sailboat that appeared to have taken part in planting explosive devices deep below the surface of the Baltic Sea.

But after months of investigation, law enforcement officials now suspect that the 50-foot yacht, the Andromeda, was probably not the only vessel used in the audacious attack. They also say the boat may have been a decoy, put to sea to distract from the true perpetrators, who remain at large, according to officials with knowledge of an investigation led by Germany’s attorney general. They spoke on the condition of anonymity to share details about the active inquiry, including doubts about the Andromeda’s role that haven’t been previously reported.

Officials hope that the true purpose of Andromeda in the deep-sea demolition will provide further insight in a high-stakes, international whodunnit that could eventually lead to those responsible and explain their motives, which remain unclear.

……….

Such an operation would have taken multiple dives, exposing the Andromeda to detection from nearby ships. The mission would have been easier to hide and pull off using remotely piloted underwater vehicles or small submarines, said diving and salvage experts who have worked in the area of the explosion, which features rough seas and heavy shipping traffic.

The German investigation has determined that traces of “military-grade” explosives found on a table inside the boat’s cabin match the batch of explosives used on the pipeline. Several officials doubted that skilled saboteurs would leave such glaring evidence of their guilt behind. They wonder if the explosive traces — collected months after the rented boat was returned to its owners — were meant to falsely lead investigators to the Andromeda as the vessel used in the attack.

“The question is whether the story with the sailboat is something to distract or only part of the picture,” said one person with knowledge of the investigation.

They found residues on the table?  They were making bombs with over 100kg of explosives on the dining room table of a yacht? Seriously?

If they were making, or assembling, bombs on the boat, residues would be everywhere, and if they were simply transporting the bombs, the residue would be nowhere.

No wonder investigators are skeptical.

………

The German investigation has linked the yacht rental to a Polish company, which is in turn owned by a European company that’s connected to a prominent Ukrainian, fueling speculation from Berlin to Warsaw to Kyiv that a deep-pocketed partisan may have financed the operation. The identity of the Polish company and the Ukrainian individual, as well as his potential motive, remains unclear.

………

Suspicion also has turned toward Ukraine as the culprit behind the Nord Stream bombings, based in part on intercepted communications of pro-Ukraine individuals discussing the possibility of carrying out an attack on the pipelines before the explosions, The Washington Post previously reported.

Only the Ukraine lacked the means to conduct such an operation.  Even if they found a way to transport their divers to the Baltic Sea with the requisite deep diving experience, they would have had deep sea experience in the far warmer, and far more docile, Black Sea, and so the entire team would have needed weeks or months of training. 

They might possibly have been able to hire people able to do this, but not without the knowledge and tacit assent of the United States, particularly given the economic reporting that would doubtless have to be otherwise made in order to comply with US sanctions.

………

For all the intrigue around who bombed the pipeline, some Western officials are not so eager to find out.

At gatherings of European and NATO policymakers, officials have settled into a rhythm, said one senior European diplomat: “Don’t talk about Nord Stream.” Leaders see little benefit from digging too deeply and finding an uncomfortable answer, the diplomat said, echoing sentiments of several peers in other countries who said they would rather not have to deal with the possibility that Ukraine or allies were involved.

This level of diplomatic omerta is not about the Ukraine, who would continue to get support if they were found to be culpable, or the Poles, who are generally viewed with alarm by the other members of NATO.

Said diplomats are concerned that a serious investigation would point to the United States or the UK, and if that were the case, the repercussion would likely shatter the increasingly fragile consensus on the Ukraine war.

This is not evidence that the US or UK were involved, after all, the CIA was not involved in the JFK assassination, but they spent months worrying that someone that they supported was involved, but it says a lot about the current state of mind within the alliance.